The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2 [+2 days of sales]

T-24 Thursday

104 Showings

737

+55

17565

 

T-25 Friday

163 Showings

805

+95

27845

 

T-26 Saturday

168 Showings

754

+117

28813

 

T-27 Sunday

162 Showings

203

+35

27940

Do you have final number for Oppenheimer? how many tickets did it sell at Emagine. 

[keysersoze123]

43 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	3804	104695	3.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

89

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1607

*47 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-24

 

(1.490x) of Oppenheimer $15.65M 

(0.934x) of Indy 5 $6.72M 

(2.259x) of Wonka $7.91M 

(2.180x) of Aquaman 2 $9.81M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.02M

you are only looking at previews right. How are early shows doing as well?

[Inceptionzq]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Do you have final number for Oppenheimer? how many tickets did it sell at Emagine. 

6538/10853/12879/11762

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

you are only looking at previews right. How are early shows doing as well?

Yes, previews. Last i check EA shows were selling really really well (over 30% seats sold) 

Going to run a check probably tomorrow 

[keysersoze123]

On 2/3/2024 at 7:38 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 21940/55434 444059.48 181 shows

Previews - 38705/514249 782213.63 2565 shows

Friday - 32188/792092 652691.48 3985 shows
Saturday - 32681/834465 634788.93 4203 shows

 

May be this is the bottom. Its doing very well. 

Dune 2 MTC1

Early shows(2/25) - 22548/55434 455453.28 181 shows

Previews - 41156/512263 829106.92 2562 shows

Friday - 34828/793096 703425.28 3990 shows

Saturday - 35489/835139 687019.47 4206 shows

 

I dont see any concerns either around absolute number or daily pace. Plus its presales are well spread out over the weekend. I like the early reactions/reviews as well. Its previews minus early shows is ahead of Oppenheimer and pace is also slightly better. Oppenheimer saw huge acceleration 2 weeks from release. By that time Dune 2 reactions will also be out. So its all aligned to mimic that. 

[keysersoze123]

58 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

6538/10853/12879/11762

WOW. 

[dallas]

23 hours ago, dallas said:

Bob Marley: One Love

 

Wednesday Opening

 

T-10

103 tickets sold (+19)

 

Comps:

(0.126x) of The Color Purple - $2.27 Million

 

Doing quite well actually. Or at least better than expected. Dont think TCP is the greatest comp in the world but it's the only one I got. 

Bob Marley: One Love

 

Wednesday Opening

 

T-9

131 tickets sold (+28)

Growth: 27%

5 theaters/15 showtimes

 

Comps:

(0.160x) of The Color Purple - $2.88 Million

 

Showing some really solid growth here. TCP isn't the best comp so I expect it to debut with a lot higher than $2.88M, will probably land closer to $4-5M. 

[dallas]

23 hours ago, dallas said:

Madame Web

 

Wednesday Opening

 

T-10

74 tickets sold (+31)

 

Comps:

(2.056x) of Mean Girls - $6.68 Million

(0.548x) of Aquaman 2 - $2.47 Million

(5.286x) of Argylle - $8.99 Million

(0.090x) of The Color Purple - $1.62 Million

COMPS AVG - $4.94 Million

 

Really messed around with the comps here but overall, its looking pretty solid. Though I imagined it would considering its opening on Valentine's Day. We'll see where WOM takes this.

Madame Web

 

Wednesday Opening

 

T-9

Tickets Sold: 77 (+3)

% PLF: 35%

Growth: 4%

18 showtimes/5 theaters

 

Comps:

(2.139x) of Mean Girls - $6.95 Million

(0.55x) of Aquaman 2 - $2.48 Million

(5.133x) of Argylle - $8.73 Million

(0.094x) of The Color Purple - $1.69 Million

COMPS AVG - $4.96 Million

 

Saw a slight increase today. I'm thinking this does ~$5M on Valentine's Day, and either legs out to a respectable total or completely plummets due to toxic WOM. 

[leoh]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early shows(2/25) - 22548/55434 455453.28 181 shows

Previews - 41156/512263 829106.92 2562 shows

Friday - 34828/793096 703425.28 3990 shows

Saturday - 35489/835139 687019.47 4206 shows

 

I dont see any concerns either around absolute number or daily pace. Plus its presales are well spread out over the weekend. I like the early reactions/reviews as well. Its previews minus early shows is ahead of Oppenheimer and pace is also slightly better. Oppenheimer saw huge acceleration 2 weeks from release. By that time Dune 2 reactions will also be out. So its all aligned to mimic that. 

Barbenheimer was the reason for Oppenheimer to see a huge acceleration 2 weeks from the release. Particularly I don’t get how a great reaction to Dune 2 (something that won’t be a surprise to anyone) could mimic the Barbenheimer effect on Oppenheimer sales. I think this is the main reasons most of trackers here don’t see Dune making anything really close to Oppenheimer final box office. It’s not impossible of course, but I’d agree with @M37 @Shawn Robbins @dallas and say right now it seems unlikely.

Edited February 6 by leoh

[filmlover]

11 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Positive reviews certainly wouldn’t hurt Lisa Frankenstein, do we know when the embargo lifts for it? 

Word on social media is that it was the "surprise" (not really, given it matched the rating and runtime) screening tonight so it might be tomorrow I guess.

[Porthos]

When discussing WB's release strat for Dune: Part Two, I think "concern" is the wrong word, but "noting" or "observing" I think are fair.

 

There is something of a — danger is not the right word here because sales are sales, but I'll wrap back around to why I'm using it in a moment — danger in peaking too early when it comes to D2's pre-sales, as seen by both (for different reasons) The Little Mermaid and Five Nights at Freddy's.

 

(yes, I can already see the rebuttals forming — I promise I'll get to that)

 

When I say "danger" I don't mean in overall pre-sales for D2, but I very much do mean it when it comes to use using those current pre-sales as an expectation for the eventual final preview number.  Like, if Dune: Part Two has an abnormally amount stronger of pre-sales in the mid-period it doesn't necessarily translate to as correspondingly higher final number.  Doesn't even need cannibalization going on, as it'd have to keep up the stronger pace throughout the run, and that is much harder at the end when the sales increase dramatically. 

 

Say, if the comps in the mid-period are pointing to 12m-13m (number pulled completely out of my ass for example purposes only) it might wind up being "only" 9m-10m (ditto) because it would be that much harder to keep up the accelerated pace necessary to reach 12m-13m.  We saw this very recently when the comps for FNAF started falling at the T-8/T-7 or so mark as review/reaction bumps for other movies were happening and FNAF was just sitting there twiddling its thumbs.

 

Similarly, TLM saw an early bounce as Disney was relentlessly promoting it with releases of music tracks and other balls-to-the-walls marketing.  TLM in turn saw a drop in comps as it got closer to release as it already had its social/review bounces and it couldn't keep up that accelerated pace once other movies came on line with their promotion release strategies.

 

Now it is absolutely true that D2 is almost certainly going to get much better reviews than TLM and certainly better than FNAF.  At the same time... At the same time I would remind one and all that the super early reviews for Dune weren't exactly overwhelmingly positive.  In fact, if memory serves correctly, there was a small amount of panic at those super early reviews (which if IIRC were in the high 70s over on RT) before more mainstream reviews came in and it settled in the low/mid 80s.  It is entirely possible that that a bunch of grumps reviewers for whom Dune didn't click as much as they would have liked have a disproportionate amount of early reviews released when it comes to Dune: Part Two.

 

TL;DR: All of the above is to say:  Should Dune: Part Two's ticket sales spike next week, keep in mind that it'll will still be very hard to keep that acceleration going.  Films like Barbie (which is one of the few recent films that did keep up a mid-run acceleration right up to the end) are rare for a reason, after all.

Edited February 6 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

On 2/3/2024 at 7:40 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Bob Marley MTC1

VD - 20238/319428 299114.64 2001 shows

Friday - 4282/360785 63476.64 2168 shows

 

its pace for VD is very good. If it can accelerate over next 10 days, I think high single digits OD can happen. But Friday sales are dire. So not feeling the movie overall. 

Bob Marley MTC1

VD - 29408/367329 439805.38 2302 shows

Friday - 5531/380822 83653.65 2276 shows

 

Pace over VD is terrific. But data continues to show this is going to be another Color Purple. 

Edited February 6 by keysersoze123

[Spidey Freak]

6 hours ago, leoh said:

I agree it may be expecting an even better reception, but not even Oppenheimer or KOTF got a 90 Metacritic score, I mean it’s not impossible, but it’s wild if WB is expecting this. 

 

The meat of the story happens in the second part. And there are signs pointing to Villenue sidestepping most of the issues critics had with Oppenheimer and KOTFM. It wouldn't be exactly wild if WB is expecting a Fury Road level reception here.

[keysersoze123]

On 2/3/2024 at 7:41 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Madame Web MTC1

VD - 12760/535663 215986.52 2533 shows

Friday - 6052/581761 101665.92 2710 shows

 

Meh numbers and pace. 

Madame Web MTC1

VD - 16214/551677 273703.56 2661 shows

Friday - 7176/577582 121265.26 2699 shows

 

So its pace is < 40% of Bob Marley for VD and now even Friday pace is below Marley. I dont think its even winning 3 day weekend at this point.

[Porthos]

One other thing that came to mind to me earlier today.

 

I will not be that surprised if the Super Bowl Bounce* out of Sacramento is relatively muted compared to other markets.  Folks might remember last April when Sacramento's daily pre-sales were very likely affected by the Sacramento Kings playoff run.

* If there is one.

 

Well as much as Sacramento likes the Kings, this town loves the 49ers even more.  I remember talking with a person who works in (non-restaurant) retail a couple of weekends ago observing that their foot traffic goes through the floor on playoff games when the Niners are playing.  With a massively anticipated Super Bowl matchup coming up, it is entirely possible that whatever SB bounce that may or may not happen might, and I very much do mean might, be delayed in Sacramento.

 

(especially if the entire town is down in the dumps/moping after a loss)

 

Now I tend to take my sample around 11pm to midnight, and with the game being over by 7/7:30pm there is still a few hours of prime sales in my area.  And, hell, even if the percentage of people inclined to buy tickets drops disproportionately locally, the overall increase in eyeballs, again even locally, also might make up for that.

 

Still, how the Kings playoff run impacted GOTG3 pre-sales locally last year was something I remembered and I thought I might as well get that out there now.

[keysersoze123]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

When noting/discussing WB's release strat for Dune: Part Two, I think "concern" is the wrong word, but "noting" or "observing" I think are fair.

 

There is something of a — danger is not the right word here because sales are sales, but I'll wrap back around to why I'm using it in a moment — danger in peaking too early when it comes to D2's pre-sales, as seen by both (for different reasons) The Little Mermaid and Five Nights at Freddy's.

 

(yes, I can already see the rebuttals forming — I promise I'll get to that)

 

When I say "danger" I don't mean in overall pre-sales for D2, but I very much do mean it when it comes to use using those current pre-sales as an expectation for the eventual final preview number.  Like, if Dune: Part Two has an abnormally amount stronger of pre-sales in the mid-period it doesn't necessarily translate to as correspondingly higher final number.  Doesn't even need cannibalization going on, as it'd have to keep up the stronger pace throughout the run, and that is much harder at the end when the sales increase dramatically. 

 

Say, if the comps in the mid-period are pointing to 12m-13m (number pulled completely out of my ass for example purposes only) it might wind up being "only" 9m-10m (ditto) because it would be that much harder to keep up the accelerated pace necessary to reach 12m-13m.  We saw this very recently when the comps for FNAF started falling at the T-8/T-7 or so mark as review/reaction bumps for other movies were happening and FNAF was just sitting there twiddling its thumbs.

 

Similarly, TLM saw an early bounce as Disney was relentlessly promoting it with releases of music tracks and other balls-to-the-walls marketing.  TLM in turn saw a drop in comps as it got closer to release as it already had its social/review bounces and it couldn't keep up that accelerated pace once other movies came on line with their promotion release strategies.

 

Now it is absolutely true that D2 is almost certainly going to get much better reviews than TLM and certainly better than FNAF.  At the same time... At the same time I would remind one and all that the super early reviews for Dune weren't exactly overwhelmingly positive.  In fact, if memory serves correctly, there was a small amount of panic at those super early reviews (which if IIRC were in the high 70s over on RT) before more mainstream reviews came in and it settled in the low/mid 80s.  It is entirely possible that that a bunch of grumps reviewers for whom Dune didn't click as much as they would have liked have a disproportionate amount of early reviews released when it comes to Dune: Part Two.

 

TL;DR: All of the above is to say:  Should Dune: Part Two's ticket sales spike next week, keep in mind that it'll will still be very hard to keep that acceleration going.  Films like Barbie (which is one of the few recent films that did keep up a mid-run acceleration right up to the end) are rare for a reason, after all.

FNAF had one big issue holding back its final week surge. It was available for free on Peacock. It would have definitely done better for sure without that for sure. Little Mermaid was definitely held back by meh reviews and of course other "issues". Still its OW was great. Nothing to sneeze at considering all non MCU titles have under performed for Disney since COVID. 

[leoh]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Madame Web MTC1

VD - 16214/551677 273703.56 2661 shows

Friday - 7176/577582 121265.26 2699 shows

 

So its pace is < 40% of Bob Marley for VD and now even Friday pace is below Marley. I dont think its even winning 3 day weekend at this point.

the major difference here, as you well pointed out earlier, is that OL seems to be heavily front loaded (like TCP). And so it seems that what fans are trying to do is an one-big-day homage.

 

Anyways, It’s good to see that theaters may have a better VDay than they expected some weeks ago, the two major releases for VDay are improving pace in pre sales for VDay and hopefully we are heading to a better than expected February for theaters. Many people rely on their jobs in theaters, AMC’s stock is sliding due to the perspectives we have for cinema industry this year. Hopefully we’ll get a better than expected February, get the market more optimistic for the following months so that we can avoid theaters close and people lose their jobs (this is a real threat right now)

Edited February 6 by leoh

[leoh]

2 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

The meat of the story happens in the second part. And there are signs pointing to Villenue sidestepping most of the issues critics had with Oppenheimer and KOTFM. It wouldn't be exactly wild if WB is expecting a Fury Road level reception here.

I got tickets for Sunday 25 (special fan preview), I don’t know about it getting better score than Oppie and KOTFM, but I’m 100% sure it’ll be another great experience like the first one.

Edited February 6 by leoh

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-25 Thursday previews and T-21 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 253

New Sales: 12

Growth: 5.0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 14.1

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 192/9

Late Evening: 54/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 49/7

IMAX: 148/4

VIP: 50/5

4dx: 6/2

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 357

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 11

Growth: 3.2%

 

Fairly uneventful day. I don't see much really changing in trajectory until at least after the Superbowl.

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-24 Thursday previews and T-20 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 265

New Sales: 12

Growth: 4.7%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 14.7

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 205/9

Late Evening: 53/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 48/7

IMAX: 159/4

VIP: 52/5

4dx: 6/2

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 360

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 3

Growth: 0.8%

 

Nothing eventful. But we know have some trigger events to look forward to with the review embargo. 

 

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-10

 

Previews

Total Sales: 81

New Sales: 17

Growth: 27%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 6.2

Thursday Sales: 34

Friday Sales: 35

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 2/1

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 53/6

Late Evening: 19/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 42/5

IMAX: 35/7

VIP: 4/1

 

T-13 Comps

1.653x Aquaman 2 for $7.4M

0.547x HG:BoSS for $3.1M

0.215x of The Marvels for $1.4M

Avg: $4.0M

 

A good bounceback day, with a growth at 27%. It is worth highlighting on comps that due to the Wednesday opening vs a Thursday preview, days of the week aren't lining up for comps, so, it's probably leading to more distortion on that front. Nothing too big, but worth noting.

 

 

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-9

 

Previews

Total Sales: 93

New Sales: 12

Growth: 15%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 7.8

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/0

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 67/6

Late Evening: 19/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 51/5

IMAX: 36/6

VIP: 6/1

 

Comps

1.348x Aquaman 2 for $6.1M

0.520x HG:BoSS for $3.0M

0.236x of The Marvels for $1.6M

Avg: $3.5M

 

Growth was okay, but fell against comps. The date alignment is showing it's impacts.

 

The sole early afternoon showtime has been dropped. We'll also get full showtime sets this evening. This means we may get additional showtimes, but not guaranteed. I'm not sure if they're seeing enough to do so. I also suspect that the availability of other Valentine's Day options hurts this a bit.