The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	23103	24729	1626	6.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

49

 

T-25 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

	%		Sold T-25	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	96.21		60	1690		0/171	22094/23784	7.11%		2915	55.78%		17.32m
BP2	28.94		121	5619		1/294	31400/37019	15.18%		16800	9.68%		8.10m
GOTG3	60.49		43	2688		0/206	26983/29671	9.06%		10750	15.13%		10.59m
Fast X	217.96		23	746		0/182	26954/27700	2.69%		4122	39.45%		16.35m
Indy 5	205.30		12	792		0/124	18735/19527	4.06%		4767	34.11%		14.78m
Oppy	213.95		13	760		0/53	7490/8250	9.21%		10750	15.13%		22.46m
AM3	44.86		97	3625		0/235	28901/32526	11.14%		10475	15.52%		7.85m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      437/8153  [5.36% sold]
Matinee:    34/2762  [1.23% | 2.09% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:         611/814  [75.06% sold] [+5 tickets]
Thr:    1015/23915  [4.24% sold] [+44 tickets]
PLF:     1387/9813  [14.13% | 85.30% of all tickets sold]

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	23073	24729	1656	6.70%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

30

 

T-24 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

	%		Sold T-24	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	96.73		22	1712		0/171	22072/23784	7.20%		2915	56.81%		17.41m
Thor 4	39.80		4161	4161		0/228	27442/31603	13.17%		16962	9.76%		11.54m
BP2	29.01		89	5708		1/294	31311/37019	15.42%		16800	9.86%		8.12m
Ava 2	125.45		1320	1320		0/138	19300/20620	6.40%		8986	18.43%		21.33m
AM3	44.54		93	3718		0/235	28808/32526	11.43%		10475	15.81%		7.79m
GOTG3	59.25		107	2795		0/206	26876/29671	9.42%		10750	15.40%		10.37m
Fast X	219.34		9	755		0/182	26945/27700	2.73%		4122	40.17%		16.45m
Indy 5	198.09		44	836		0/124	18688/19524	4.28%		4767	34.74%		14.26m
Oppy	212.31		20	780		0/53	7470/8250	9.45%		10750	15.40%		22.29m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      456/8153  [5.59% sold]
Matinee:    42/2762  [1.52% | 2.54% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:          613/814  [75.31% sold] [+2 tickets]
Thr:    1043/23915  [4.36% sold] [+28 tickets]
PLF:      1409/9813  [14.36% | 85.08% of all tickets sold]

 

=====

 

First day of sales for both Thor 4 and Ava 2, so those comps will be dropping very quickly.

[M37]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

When I say "danger" I don't mean in overall pre-sales for D2, but I very much do mean it when it comes to use using those current pre-sales as an expectation for the eventual final preview number.  Like, if Dune: Part Two has an abnormally amount stronger of pre-sales in the mid-period it doesn't necessarily translate to as correspondingly higher final number.  Doesn't even need cannibalization going on, as it'd have to keep up the stronger pace throughout the run, and that is much harder at the end when the sales increase dramatically. 

 

Say, if the comps in the mid-period are pointing to 12m-13m (number pulled completely out of my ass for example purposes only) it might wind up being "only" 9m-10m (ditto) because it would be that much harder to keep up the accelerated pace necessary to reach 12m-13m.  We saw this very recently when the comps for FNAF started falling at the T-8/T-7 or so mark as review/reaction bumps for other movies were happening and FNAF was just sitting there twiddling its thumbs.

 

21 hours ago, M37 said:

To put some numbers to this, growth rates in total sales (in multi terms) of some high profile films for MTC1 from T-14

 

CBM: Batman (Th) 2.95x, GOTG3 2.90x (the rest of the big ones are much closer to 2x, except Flash which was a little weird)

Mid-Range: MI7 3.66x, TGM 3.54x, Avatar 2 3.43x, Indy 5 3.45x

High-Level: Oppy 3.89x, JWD 4.13x, ATSV 4.40x

 

FNAF and TLM aren't the films I'd use to highlight that potential outcome, as I would argue both had weaker finishes for external factors. The pattern of stronger sales in the mid-range period (up to T-7) but not as strong of a finish is one that the middle group highlighted mostly share. Tends to be the case for films that skew towards older (often white) men, who buy tickets on average earlier in the cycle than their younger and more diverse counterparts, essentially gaining sales earlier at the expense of the later ones

[TheFlatLannister]

11 hours ago, leoh said:

Barbenheimer was the reason for Oppenheimer to see a huge acceleration 2 weeks from the release. Particularly I don’t get how a great reaction to Dune 2 (something that won’t be a surprise to anyone) could mimic the Barbenheimer effect on Oppenheimer sales. I think this is the main reasons most of trackers here don’t see Dune making anything really close to Oppenheimer final box office. It’s not impossible of course, but I’d agree with @M37 @Shawn Robbins @dallas and say right now it seems unlikely.

It will not mimic Barbenheimer…who is saying otherwise? 
 

Barbenheimer was a once in a lifetime phenomenon. 
 

who is predicting $1B for Dune? DOM OW will be close though 

[vafrow]

I'm not formally tracking it, but now just over 48 hours to it's first showings, still not one ticket sold to Lisa Frankenstein in my sample.

 

If I expand to a broader radius, theres some sporadic sales, that work out to around one ticket per showtime more or less, so my zero sales are an anomaly to some degree, but, it's not showing much strength.

 

 

[leoh]

48 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

It will not mimic Barbenheimer…who is saying otherwise? 
 

Barbenheimer was a once in a lifetime phenomenon. 
 

who is predicting $1B for Dune? DOM OW will be close though 

I think the conversation about 1 billion started with that Variety article saying “rival studios” was predicting it to make  1 billion.

 

 

Edited February 6 by leoh

[leoh]

21 minutes ago, vafrow said:

I'm not formally tracking it, but now just over 48 hours to it's first showings, still not one ticket sold to Lisa Frankenstein in my sample.

 

If I expand to a broader radius, theres some sporadic sales, that work out to around one ticket per showtime more or less, so my zero sales are an anomaly to some degree, but, it's not showing much strength.

 

 

Lisa may struggle due to Super Bow Final.

[BOfficeStats]

https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/s/0RrE4xYdW7

 

How big are we expecting Dune's Early Access sales compared to Thursday previews?  

Edited February 6 by BOfficeStats

[Last Man Standing]

31 minutes ago, BOfficeStats said:

https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/s/0RrE4xYdW7

 

How big are we expecting Dune's Early Access sales compared to Thursday previews?  

Ban please.

[interiorgatordecorator]

save us Muad'dame Web

Edited February 6 by interiorgatordecorator

[filmlover]

Mentioned it over the weekend but Lisa Frankenstein definitely feels like an obvious flop in theaters that finds a cult following later. Which I guess guarantees it a longer shelf life than if it had been dropped on a streamer for a week or two of semi-popularity before vanishing into the ether.

[leoh]

20 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Mentioned it over the weekend but Lisa Frankenstein definitely feels like an obvious flop in theaters that finds a cult following later. Which I guess guarantees it a longer shelf life than if it had been dropped on a streamer for a week or two of semi-popularity before vanishing into the ether.

What’s the budget? Do you know? I don’t find anything on internet 

[Issac Newton]

Please track this movie if possible

 

 

Anya is collaborating with Ethan Hunt!

Edited February 6 by Issac Newton

[el sid]

Lisa Frankenstein, counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 20 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 8 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 1 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 8 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 40 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 98 (3 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 177.
I think some shows are pretty new, e.g. in the AMC in NY which could be the reason why the presales are way worse than in the western theaters.

 

Comps (all films counted on Tuesday of the release week for Thursday, tomorrow I have better comps): Beast (925k from previews) had 176 sold tickets = 925k,
Crawl (1M) had 146 = 1.2M,
M3gan (2.75M) had 341 = 1.45M
and The Nun II (3.1M) had 591 sold tickets = 950k.
 

Average: 1.15M.

 

Not even that bad. The Friday presales also looked quite ok judging from some samples.

Edited February 6 by el sid

[Wombat]

35 minutes ago, leoh said:

What’s the budget? Do you know? I don’t find anything on internet 

I saw something in the range of $13 million on a puff piece article a couple days ago but I don't know how accurate that is off the cuff. Seems reasonable given the cast/most of the budget going to costuming and makeup. 

Edited February 6 by Wombat

[vafrow]

Watching the One Love showtimes starting to appear on MTC4 and noticing the frequency of 4:20 showtimes.

 

[leoh]

26 minutes ago, Wombat said:

I saw something in the range of $13 million on a puff piece article a couple days ago but I don't know how accurate that is off the cuff. Seems reasonable given the cast/most of the budget going to costuming and makeup. 

oh if it’s 13M then Lisa may get a profit

[jeffthehat]

INDIANA

 

Lisa Frankenstein T-2

 

TC	Seats sold	Seats	Shows
24	108	6778	53

 

Sales are around a third of Argylle T-2, +16 tickets sold since T-4

 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
813	44	1353	60.09%

 

Thursday Previews:

AMC Westminster 24

Total

374

1794

20.85%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

307

1388

22.12%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1475	139	18464	7.24%	13	89

 

0.820

Guardians T-24

14.35M

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
821	8	1353	60.68%

 

Thursday Previews:

AMC Westminster 24

Total

385

1794

21.46%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

319

1388

22.98%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1518	43	18464	8.22%	13	89

 

0.827

Guardians T-23

14.48M

0.472

Thor L&T T-23

13.69M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2 [+2 days of sales]

T-24 Thursday

163 Showings

6300

+471

24671

ATP:

18.74

0.851

Guardians T-24

14.89M

 

T-25 Friday

246 Showings

7019

+493

36904

ATP:

18.12

1.314

Guardians T-25

40.20M

 

T-26 Saturday

260 Showings

8399

+652

38960

ATP:

17.53

1.379

Guardians T-26

53.63M

 

T-27 Sunday

237 Showings

4657

+530

35260

ATP:

17.78

1.622

Guardians T-27

50.98M

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-23 Thursday

164 Showings

6499

+199

24781

ATP:

18.66

0.866

Guardians T-23

15.16M

0.754

Thor L&T T-23

21.86M

 

T-24 Friday

246 Showings

7197

+178

36904

ATP:

18.08

1.306

Guardians T-24

39.95M

1.206

Thor L&T T-24

48.91M

 

T-25 Saturday

261 Showings

8695

+296

39076

ATP:

17.51

1.393

Guardians T-25

54.16M

1.682

Thor L&T T-25

70.82M

 

T-26 Sunday

238 Showings

4871

+214

35376

ATP:

17.73

1.635

Guardians T-26

51.39M

1.946

Thor L&T T-26

63.25M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2 [+2 days of sales]

T-24 Thursday

104 Showings

737

+55

17565

 

T-25 Friday

163 Showings

805

+95

27845

 

T-26 Saturday

168 Showings

754

+117

28813

 

T-27 Sunday

162 Showings

203

+35

27940

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-23 Thursday

104 Showings

756

+19

17566

 

T-24 Friday

162 Showings

859

+54

27660

 

T-25 Saturday

168 Showings

812

+58

28816

 

T-26 Sunday

162 Showings

213

+10

27940