The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[todos]

Surprising Universal is the only studio that doesn’t have anything big coming up. Wicked reeks of a CATS disaster. 

[todos]

Darn I missed being on the 1000th page.

[AniNate]

2 hours ago, todos said:

Surprising Universal is the only studio that doesn’t have anything big coming up. Wicked reeks of a CATS disaster. 

 

Not sure what you're basing this on but quorum is definitely not indicating that. Awareness and buzz is pretty good for it.

[CJohn]

I think Wicked is gonna be another Twisters. Expecting very weak numbers OS outside of UK/Australia.

[vafrow]

On 8/27/2024 at 7:20 AM, vafrow said:

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, T-10, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Wednesday EA

 

Previews

Total Sales: 91

New Sales: 2

Growth: 2%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 23

Tickets per Showtime: 4.0

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 87

New sales: 3

Growth: 4%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 4/6

Early Evening: 63/8

Late Evening: 24/9

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 20/6

VIP: 55/8

IMAX: 8/6

4DX: 8/3

 

Comps (preview to preview)

1.625x GB:FE for $7.6M

0.503x GxK for $5.0M

 

Average: $6.3M

 

Comps (combined EA and previews)

2.697x Fall Guy for $8.5M

1.935x Twisters for $20.7M

3.179x GB:FE for $14.9M

0.983x GxK for $9.8M

 

Average: $13.5M

 

Things are going fairly slowly. It's at least a steady drip. I think the real story will get told only in thd final days after labor Day.

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, T-9, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Wednesday EA

 

Previews

Total Sales: 97

New Sales: 6

Growth: 7%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Tickets per Showtime: 2.6

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 94

New sales: 7

Growth: 8%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 4/11

Early Evening: 65/13

Late Evening: 28/14

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/9

Dolby: 22/9

VIP: 57/11

IMAX: 8/6

4DX: 8/3

 

Comps (preview to preview)

1.672x GB:FE for $7.9M

0.487x GxK for $4.9M

 

Average: $6.4M

 

Comps (combined EA and previews)

2.768x Fall Guy for $8.7M

2.011x Twisters for $21.5M

3.293x GB:FE for $15.5M

0.960x GxK for $9.6M

 

Average: $13.8M

 

Showtimes got beefed up quite a bit. Makes sense as there's not much else demanding screens.

 

Pace staying steady.

[vafrow]

Transformers One, D1, T-23, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 3

New Sales: na

Growth: na

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 0.2

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sunday EA Shows

Showtimes: 3

Sales: 4

New sales: na

Growth: na

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 0

New sales: na

Growth: na

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/1

Early Evening: 1/6

Late Evening: 2/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 0/3

Dolby 3D: 2/4

IMAX: 1/4

4DX: 0/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.750x KFP4 for $3.6M

1.500x IO2 for $19.5M

0.429x DM4 for $11.7M

 

Average: $11.6M

 

It's hard to read much into small numbers. Especially since the weaker type of comps like Garfield or IF had zero sales for the first few days and can't be used. But a scattering of sales both on previews and EA on TOne is a good sign.

 

 

 

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, CJohn said:

I think Wicked is gonna be another Twisters. Expecting very weak numbers OS outside of UK/Australia.

Oz the Great & Powerful made almost half of its worldwide total from the US alone 11 years ago so this wouldn't be a surprising breakdown.

 

It's kind of amusing how WB is looking to bookend a terrible summer with an incredible spring (Dune, Godzilla x Kong) and fall (Beetlejuice, Joker). Too bad their big bet for the holidays this year looks like a nonstarter (the animated Lord of the Rings movie reminds me of that animated Star Wars movie from the late aughts that even the most die-hard of fans gave the cold shoulder to).

[AniNate]

I wouldn't say it's a nonstarter but definitely not gonna be the kind of big hit that lead-in with the live action Jackson movies in the trailer is desperately trying to make it. Seems competent at least and I think the $50mil target Minus One and Boy and the Heron finished around last year is reasonable.

[Eric the Marxist]

This was conducted prior to Wolf’s being streaming only. I’ve never even heard of those last two. Like at this point, why not just go up to November?

[Grand Cine]

Maybe a new September record ? The record is in 2017 with 698M . Last year , it was 474M . Great scores for Beetlejuice but other hits ? Maybe Transformers One or The Wild Robot?

[Grand Cine]

8 minutes ago, Eric Ripley said:

This was conducted prior to Wolf’s being streaming only. I’ve never even heard of those last two. Like at this point, why not just go up to November?

For me , it would be Joker 2 number one above BeetleJuice 2 and Venom 3 . After this , Transformers One and the Wild Robot and after Smile 2 and Speak no Evil.

[AnthonyJPHer]

31 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

Maybe a new September record ? The record is in 2017 with 698M . Last year , it was 474M . Great scores for Beetlejuice but other hits ? Maybe Transformers One or The Wild Robot?

I mean it’s not impossible that September 2024 can beat September 2017, considering that’s when It released and Beetlejuice Beetlejuice is tracking towards a similar opening. The Wild Robot should do 80m-120m+ and Transformers One can do 110m-150m. I predict a 730-780m September. It’s not impossible as long as Beetlejuice breaks out to 120m+ and The Wild Robot and Transformers One do 40m+ and 55m+ openings respectively. But it’d really going to depend on these three films. Speak No Evil is most likely doing 50m total. 

[CJohn]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Oz the Great & Powerful made almost half of its worldwide total from the US alone 11 years ago so this wouldn't be a surprising breakdown.

 

It's kind of amusing how WB is looking to bookend a terrible summer with an incredible spring (Dune, Godzilla x Kong) and fall (Beetlejuice, Joker). Too bad their big bet for the holidays this year looks like a nonstarter (the animated Lord of the Rings movie reminds me of that animated Star Wars movie from the late aughts that even the most die-hard of fans gave the cold shoulder to).

WB also has Red One OS and that is gonna tank spectacularly.

[YM!]

9 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

I mean it’s not impossible that September 2024 can beat September 2017, considering that’s when It released and Beetlejuice Beetlejuice is tracking towards a similar opening. The Wild Robot should do 80m-120m+ and Transformers One can do 110m-150m. I predict a 730-780m September. It’s not impossible as long as Beetlejuice breaks out to 120m+ and The Wild Robot and Transformers One do 40m+ and 55m+ openings respectively. But it’d really going to depend on these three films. Speak No Evil is most likely doing 50m total. 

September totals count for what the movies made during the month of September. Not the cumulative total.

Edited August 28 by YM!

[AnthonyJPHer]

8 minutes ago, YM! said:

September totals count for what the movies made during the month of September. Not the cumulative total.

That’s why I also included the openings. Those are in month. 

[YM!]

Hey all, hope everyone is good. Been unable to track as much do to work and school but I will return tonight with an update for Beetlejuice and Transformers. Anyways here is some data I have tracked over the months from SE Wisconsin Marcus Theaters:

Twisters (T-1): 168

Twisters EA (T-12 hours): 164

It Ends with Us (T-2): 372

It Ends with Us EA (T-1): 166

Borderlands (T-2): 59

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (T-30): 61

Trap (T-2): 19

Harold and the Purple Crayon (T-2): 21

[AniNate]

Still hope Wild Robot does a lot better than the 15-25mil tracking it's starting out at. Do think that'll end up being a massive lowball if it's the kind of critical darling Uni's banking on it being

[AnthonyJPHer]

17 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Still hope Wild Robot does a lot better than the 15-25mil tracking it's starting out at. Do think that'll end up being a massive lowball if it's the kind of critical darling Uni's banking on it being

I think it can open to similar numbers to Elemental. 29-34m range. 

[AniNate]

I need higher for my club but Elemental would be the floor of what I'm... ok with, especially since IF already surpassed that this year and I'm presuming TWR's reviews will be much much better. 

 

Edited August 28 by AniNate

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, Grand Cine said:

Maybe a new September record ? The record is in 2017 with 698M . Last year , it was 474M . Great scores for Beetlejuice but other hits ? Maybe Transformers One or The Wild Robot?

 

September has been such a slow month traditionally, that one giant hit like Beetlejuice near the start puts a record in play. 

 

It still needs the secondary hits to come through from Transformers and Wild Robot. Both need to hit on the higher end of expectations.