The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Eric the Marxist]

Just now, CheeseWizard said:

Wait TFOne at 47? I thought it was 43 just yesterday 

 

Also 25% of 30mil? That sounds like the original estimates of 30-40 mil for the opening weekend arent happening are they!

Yeah. It was at 43 yesterday (technically Thursday). Quorum does new surveys all the time to track how movies are tracking. That's why they change all the time.

 

As for the latter point, that is very premature to say. We are more than a week away, and the Awareness and Interest data is going to change. It will likely change to something more favorable once we get closer to release. If it gets above 50% by the end of its run, which I am quite confident in, then it will have a 74% chance of reaching 30M. I suggest that for next time that you be patient and do not automatically jump to conclusions. This does not help anybody and just derails the thread.

[AniNate]

Kids movies are notorious for being underestimated by official tracking, Inside Out 2 exploded in its final pre-release week

[CheeseWizard]

5 minutes ago, Eric Deetz said:

Yeah. It was at 43 yesterday (technically Thursday). Quorum does new surveys all the time to track how movies are tracking. That's why they change all the time.

 

As for the latter point, that is very premature to say. We are more than a week away, and the Awareness and Interest data is going to change. It will likely change to something more favorable once we get closer to release. If it gets above 50% by the end of its run, which I am quite confident in, then it will have a 74% chance of reaching 30M. I suggest that for next time that you be patient and do not automatically jump to conclusions. This does not help anybody and just derails the thread.

Good god I worded that last point fucking terribly, I’m sorry. That was meant to be a question, not a conclusion. Also thank you dude, genuinely not trying to derail, I just get confused over a lot of the numbers stuff 

Edited September 9 by CheeseWizard

[JonathanMB]

Just from an early cursory glance at my local multiplexes Joker is selling pretty well at premium screens for being on sale for just a few hours. And Lady Gaga just shared a "Get Tickets Now" ad on her social media a few minutes ago (83M on Twitter, 57M on Instagram), so that could help give sales a boost.

[keysersoze123]

11 hours ago, Bob Train said:

How is Joker 2 rollout looking?

Not great. We have to wait and see but this is not a MCU level sales. That said we have to wait until end of day to see how big it is relative to other 100m openers. For now showcount itself is just ok 3479 shows at MTC1 and 2283 at MTC2 (that is lower than Beetlejuice).

 

I started tracking during the 1st movie but I was looking at smaller sets of theaters across cities plus 1st movie had just 11 days of presales. It looked very brisk from the start back then. 

[Grand Cine]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Not great. We have to wait and see but this is not a MCU level sales. That said we have to wait until end of day to see how big it is relative to other 100m openers. For now showcount itself is just ok 3479 shows at MTC1 and 2283 at MTC2 (that is lower than Beetlejuice).

 

I started tracking during the 1st movie but I was looking at smaller sets of theaters across cities plus 1st movie had just 11 days of presales. It looked very brisk from the start back then. 

The impact of Venise festival ?

[TomThomas]

Gaga just posted pre-sales trailer in her insta, might boost sales.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

The impact of Venise festival ?

I dont want to guess the why so early. I am kind of mixed on this movie anyway. 1st movie was a perfect storm and became a juggernaut post release as well. That is not easy to replicate anyway. Plus this is not atypical action blockbuster. Its a drama without CGI or action scenes. So expecting uber blockbuster number just bcos of Joker/Harley could be too much. 

 

That said I am not predicting doom or anything. Just that keep expectations in check and see how things go. 

[el sid]

The Killer's Game seems to be DOA. Today it had 13 sold tickets for Thursday (with shows in 4 theaters). 

 

Comps (always counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): The Covenant (2.2M OD/6.4M OW) had 44 sold tickets,

Expend4bles (750k from previews) had 114,

Plane (435k) had 89

and The Crow (650k) had 163 sold tickets. 

[vafrow]

21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Not great. We have to wait and see but this is not a MCU level sales. That said we have to wait until end of day to see how big it is relative to other 100m openers. For now showcount itself is just ok 3479 shows at MTC1 and 2283 at MTC2 (that is lower than Beetlejuice).

 

I started tracking during the 1st movie but I was looking at smaller sets of theaters across cities plus 1st movie had just 11 days of presales. It looked very brisk from the start back then. 

 

I've been checking sales periodically, and I'm at similar conclusions.

 

Within my comps, the one I feel it's going to land closest to after D1 is GxK.

[justnumbers]

Gotta wonder why Lionsgate even dates most of these movies. Just making us waste our latin on them. I get they have a lot of movies from previous leadership but can't they just sell them to streaming if they're all just terrible and they don't care enough to promote?

 

The ones they try to promote are the most blatant pieces of trash.

Edited September 9 by justnumbers

[AniNate]

How is Wild Robot doing? My local theaters aren't much help but seemed like we had something to work with already with the higher population markets and curious if it's gotten any presale bumps with the TIFF reactions.

[keysersoze123]

Only comp would be Batman. But that movie started with uber strong sales for early shows (selling out many as soon it started) and above average to good on OD sales for Thursday. Plus release for Batman was way bigger. You could add Dune 2 comps but even that had significant early show sales. This has to be among the few "big" openers without any early shows. 

 

FYI Batman started with 65K sales for thursday and it had already sold close to 50K for early shows by then as well. If I have to make a guess Joker 2 would be lucky to hit 25K at MTC1 OD sales. Really bad IMO. 

 

 

 

[justnumbers]

Why have early shows when there's a 95% chance that WoM will be mixed to bad?

From what I've read this movie is very anti-general audience, delivering something completely different from the 1st in a bad way. I have to imagine they know it.

 

Unless they're waiting longer to put them on.

Edited September 9 by justnumbers

[Ryan C]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Only comp would be Batman. But that movie started with uber strong sales for early shows (selling out many as soon it started) and above average to good on OD sales for Thursday. Plus release for Batman was way bigger. You could add Dune 2 comps but even that had significant early show sales. This has to be among the few "big" openers without any early shows. 

 

FYI Batman started with 65K sales for thursday and it had already sold close to 50K for early shows by then as well. If I have to make a guess Joker 2 would be lucky to hit 25K at MTC1 OD sales. Really bad IMO. 

 

 

 

 

I'm planning to track this one later tonight and I'm gonna try and use a comp for the first time. 

 

Aplogies if you already said this, but would Beetlejuice Beetlejuice be a good one to use? 

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Ryan C said:

 

I'm planning to track this one later tonight and I'm gonna try and use a comp for the first time. 

 

Aplogies if you already said this, but would Beetlejuice Beetlejuice be a good one to use? 

Sure. That will be good as well. 

[Ryan C]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Sure. That will be good as well. 

 

Ok, thanks! 

[vafrow]

8 minutes ago, AniNate said:

How is Wild Robot doing? My local theaters aren't much help but seemed like we had something to work with already with the higher population markets and curious if it's gotten any presale bumps with the TIFF reactions.

 

As a market that could conceivably could have benefited from direct word of mouth for the premiere yesterday, I saw no new sales in my area this morning.

 

I actually toyed with trying to get to the premiere yesterday with one of my kids. If I was more organized, I might have, if I could get a pair of resale. It's rare to have a family friendly title be one of the big debuts.

[charlie Jatinder]

54 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

Just from an early cursory glance at my local multiplexes Joker is selling pretty well at premium screens for being on sale for just a few hours. And Lady Gaga just shared a "Get Tickets Now" ad on her social media a few minutes ago (83M on Twitter, 57M on Instagram), so that could help give sales a boost.

How much is few hours? I was away.

MCU normally starts 6AM PST.

[AniNate]

Yeah I mean I feel like Toronto might see more of a bump in the six additional public Wild Robot screenings at TIFF than its general release weekend, but was wondering if maybe the NY/LA markets saw an uptick