The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmpalace]

23 hours ago, filmpalace said:

Speak No Evil T-2

 

Tickets sold: 72 (+21)

Growth: 41%

Theatres: 2

Showtimes: 8

 

Hoped for a better increase. Especially considering the positive reviews that came out today. A shame, really. I think the movie is quite good.

Speak No Evil T-1

 

Tickets sold: 104 (+32)

Growth: 44%

Theatres: 2

Showtimes: 8

 

Since I don't have any comps, it's difficult for me to know whether this is performing well or not 😅 But at least I have the growth rate to look at, so hopefully this can have solid final day growth like we're used to seeing with horror movies.

Edited September 11 by filmpalace

[misterpepp]

On 9/4/2024 at 1:52 PM, misterpepp said:

Saturday Night on sale Sep 23

 

The NY/LA tickets went on sale today. Nationwide expansion tix still go on sale the same aforementioned date.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

JOKER: FOLIE À DEUX 

 

Thursday 

 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
621	2932	129088	2.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-23

(0.624x) of Beetlejuice $6.12M

(0.141x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $5.43M

(0.749x) of Dune 2 $6.96M

Comps AVG: $6.17M

 

ROOF BIG YIKES. Definitely not anywhere close to a $100M opener as things look right now. Not even sure if this is a $60M type of OW. Will almost certainly decrease from Joker 2019 OW

FLORIDA 

JOKER: FOLIE À DEUX 

 

Thursday 

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
621	3122	129088	2.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

190

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-22

(0.650x) of Beetlejuice $6.37M

(0.148x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $5.71M

(0.778x) of Dune 2 $7.23M

Comps AVG: $6.43M

 

Ehhh things could be worse I guess. Still a massive failure so far. Could be a $45M-$55M opening from what i'm seeing...

 

Edited September 11 by TheFlatLannister

[HummingLemon496]

[HummingLemon496]

Credit to u/BOfficeStats who is @BOfficeStats on here for that amazing summary 

[filmlover]

19 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

JOKER: FOLIE À DEUX 

 

Thursday 

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
621	3122	129088	2.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

190

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-22

(0.650x) of Beetlejuice $6.37M

(0.148x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $5.71M

(0.778x) of Dune 2 $7.23M

Comps AVG: $6.43M

 

Ehhh things could be worse I guess. Still a massive failure so far. Could be a $45M-$55M opening from what i'm seeing...

 

The fact a Alice Through the Looking Glass/The Marvels-sized implosion isn't off the table for this (just months after the first trailer generated so much hype) is mind-boggling.

[Relevation]

Imo The Wild Robot and Transformers One are having really underrated good presales runs, most regional comps have them posting $3M+ previews if not more and they could both debut shockingly close to Joker if current trends hold  

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, Relevation said:

Imo The Wild Robot and Transformers One are having really underrated good presales runs, most regional comps have them posting $3M+ previews if not more and they could both debut shockingly close to Joker if current trends hold  

What previews and OW are you expecting for Joker 2?

[Relevation]

5 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

What previews and OW are you expecting for Joker 2?

$7.5-8M THU, $47-53M OW

[Lux Lenchner]

56 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Imo The Wild Robot and Transformers One are having really underrated good presales runs, most regional comps have them posting $3M+ previews if not more and they could both debut shockingly close to Joker if current trends hold  

Imagine telling people a year ago that two animated robot movies would've made as much/even more money in their OWs than a Joker sequel.

Edited September 12 by Lux Lenchner

[vafrow]

On 9/10/2024 at 3:52 PM, vafrow said:

I did a quick peak at Speak No Evil for my area, and its really weak.

 

Only 7 tickets sold for Thursday across the 4 of 5 theatres in my radius. I don't tend to track much on smaller horror films, but it's well behind totals of Trap. It's behind where Crow was. Both of those had schools closed though, and we're now back to normal schedules.

 

It's better than AfrAId at T-1. 

 

I don't think we've got great data on this one. As much as I'd love a break out horror right now, I think expectations should be pretty low.

 

Speak No Evil only up to 14 tickets right now. Still not encouraging. Hopefully it's walk up friendly.

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

THE WILD ROBOT 

 

Thursday 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
518	1032	108403	0.95%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-15

(0.315x) of Inside out 2 $4.09M

(0.805x) of Kung Fu Panda 4 $3.05M

Comps AVG: $3.57M

 

This is really good. Could be a $35M+ OW

[AniNate]

6 minutes ago, Lux Lenchner said:

Imagine telling people a year ago that two animated robot movies would've made as much/even more money in their OWs than a Joker sequel.

 

Heck, even a few weeks ago this forum would've laughed that idea out of the room

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

JOKER: FOLIE À DEUX 

 

Thursday 

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
621	3122	129088	2.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

190

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-22

(0.650x) of Beetlejuice $6.37M

(0.148x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $5.71M

(0.778x) of Dune 2 $7.23M

Comps AVG: $6.43M

 

Ehhh things could be worse I guess. Still a massive failure so far. Could be a $45M-$55M opening from what i'm seeing...

 

 

Slow progress is still progress I guess. It gained on it's comps. That's something. Not enough to get it back to its weight class, but not going down is a victory at this point.

[AniNate]

Kung Fu Panda 4 ended up at a $58 mil weekend off $3.8 mil previews, so if Wild Robot is managing a $3mil pace in a similar school season frame, I'd think that would put a $45-50 mil opening on the table.

[wattage]

12 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 ended up at a $58 mil weekend off $3.8 mil previews, so if Wild Robot is managing a $3mil pace in a similar school season frame, I'd think that would put a $45-50 mil opening on the table.

This opening on par with a sequel that was also nostalgia bait would be amazing. I'm hoping presales keep momentum through the next two weeks, I know you did mention yesterday that the marketing blitz for tickets being available started. 

[YM!]

On 9/1/2024 at 7:32 PM, YM! said:

Southeast Wisconsin Tracking Update - 9/1/2024 - North Shore, Menominee Falls, Brookfield Square and Majestic Cinema 

 

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

(2 screens a theater, 8 total. 2D and PLF)

• Early Access (all in PLF): 
• T-7: 12/6/39/103 - 160
• T-6: 13/6/39/114 - 172
• T-3: 26/24/50/123 - 223

Comparisons for T-3 EA: 3.23x of Bad Boys: Ride or Die’s T-4 (??m)

 

• T-8: 25/19/15/85 - 144
• T-7: 34/19/19/95 - 167
• T-4: 60/30/30/111 - 231

 

Comparisons for T-4 excluding EA: 1.96x IO2’s T-4 (25.4m), 2.92x of Furiosa’s T-4 (10.22m), and 2.53x of A Quiet Place: Day One’s T-5 (17.2m) (17.6m average)

 

Beetlejuice is shaping up to be a powerhouse. I had faith in it around the start of the year to be a sneak breakout and presales are looking good here. Though preview average is a bit high and EA rollout is pretty bigger than normal, I do think it’ll get over 100m OW with ease. Personally, I’m feeling around 115-120m OW.

 

 

Transformers One 

(2 screens a theater, except for North Shore’s 1 screen - 7 total. 2D, 3D, PLF and 3D PLF)

 

• Early Access 1 (only in North Shore, Menomonee Falls and Majestic)
• T-17: 4/1/5 - 10
• T-16: 8/0/9 - 17
• T-13: 8/6/8 - 22

 

Nothing sold so far for the second Early Access on 9/18

 

• T-22: 2/2/0/2 - 6
• T-21: 2/2/0/2 - 6
• T-18: 4/2/0/2 - 8

 

Comparisons for T-18: 0.47x of IO2 ($6.1m)

 

Still very early and there’s no fan rush either so it should do well. Little signs of certain breakout as IO2 had poor presales here until last week’s surge and I do think the excess EA though can help DOM - I remember how Turtles was inflated OW due to the amount of excess EA. So I’m thinking around 40m OW.

Southeast Wisconsin Tracking Update - 9/10/24 and 9/11/24 - North Shore, Menomonee Falls, Brookfield Square and Majestic Cinema (left to right)

 

Speak No Evil	9/12/24	T-2	7	2D, PLF	7	2	1	6	16
Transformers One: Early Access	9/14/24	T-4	3	2D, 3D	11	15		31	57
Transformers One	9/19/24	T-9	7	2D, 3D, PLF (2D/3D)	12	4	2	4	22
The Wild Robot	9/26/24	T-16	6	2D, 3D, PLF (2D/3D)	1	6	0		7
Joker: Folie a Duex	10/3/24	T-22	8	2D PLF	8	3	0	27	38

 

 

Disclaimer - only Joker has data for today, the rest is data from yesterday.

 

Speak No Evil

• 1.058x of The Watchers ($1.058m previews)
• It's tracking the same as The Watchers here, it's pretty much chopped cheese here. Enough for single digit preview and with luck double digits this weekend

Transformers One (2 screens a theater, so 8 overall)

• 0.386x IO2 ($5.02m)
• Similar thoughts about this as before. Early Access is really driving the ticket sales and should drum up decent business for this and am still thinking around 6m for total previews/40-45m OW. We won't really see momentum until the weekend but am seeing a potential warning sign in North Shore predominantly being the ticket driver, which could mean a weaker diversity skew and walkups.

 

The Wild Robot (2 screens a theater but showtimes missing for Majestic, so 6 screens overall)

• 0.318x IO2's T-18 ($4.14m previews), 0.875x of TFO
• I took note of its T-18 which was also the same tickets sold as it has now. Though again mountains are being made out of molehills, even with less PLF than TFO and one of the biggest theaters stateside missing, the fact that this is doing on par with Transformers: One is impressive. This is very great, parroting the 3-4m previews potential for this. Could be the first post-pandemic original animation breakout.

Joker: Folie a Deux

• 1.727x of Twisters without EA T-23 ($13.8m), 1.52x of AQP:D1's T-24 ($10.3m), 0.622x of BJBJ first day of presales ($6.85m)
• Though the non-CBM comparisons are solid, it does seem to be underperforming for a CBM here pretty badly with the bulk of the sales coming from Majestic. Especially one with a clear fanbase and the first doing very well in presales. The best it can hope is that it perform not like a fan driven franchise and climbs enough for a 65m OW but for now, thinking 7m previews for an OW within the 50m range.

[HummingLemon496]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

 

Heck, even a few weeks ago this forum would've laughed that idea out of the room

Lmao true

Edited September 12 by HummingLemon496

[Unfitclock]

I feel like if speak no evil came out in 2022 we would be seeing a 20 million plus opening weekend that was a great year for horror movies box office and quality wise

[AnthonyJPHer]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 ended up at a $58 mil weekend off $3.8 mil previews, so if Wild Robot is managing a $3mil pace in a similar school season frame, I'd think that would put a $45-50 mil opening on the table.

Eh, I’m not entirely convinced that it’ll open anywhere near Kung Fu Panda 4 yet. It’s doing pretty well in presale but one, I’m not sure it’ll have the same massive amount of walkups as KFP4 and two, it won’t have the sequel aspect or the brand power. I’m still thinking 30-35m opening weekend. Still a great opening if it has the word of mouth I’m expecting but I would be surprised if it does 40m+