The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[el sid]

The Equalizer 3 counted yesterday for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 196 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 99 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 11 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 1 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 12 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 87 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 63 (7 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 469.

 

Up poor 9% since Monday.
Comps (all three films counted on Tuesday of the release week for Thursday): Angel Has Fallen (1.5M from previews) had 267 sold tickets,
Rambo V (1.3M) had 274

and Meg 2 (3.2M) had 338 sold tickets.

 

Not looking bad from the comps but the jump was too small - even for a Tuesday where the jumps normally are pretty modest.
New Friday presale numbers in a few hours. From what I saw it had a good jump since Monday.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/29/2023 at 8:16 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Equalizer 3	T-2	Jax	5	46	10	166	8,308	2.00%
		Phx	6	32	31	123	6,700	1.84%
		Ral	8	43	39	164	6,981	2.35%
	Total		19	121	80	453	21,989	2.06%

 

Equalizer 3 T-2 comps 

 - Matrix 4 - .162x (1.03m)

 - F9 - .262x (1.86m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .579x (2.66m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 2.23x (3.24m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - 1.01x (3.03m)

 - Creed III - .483x (2.63m)

 - Gran Turismo (Thu) - 2.1x (2.94m)

 - Meg 2 - 1.515x (4.85m)

 

Size adjusted avg - 2.9m

 

Equalizer pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Equalizer 3	61.79%	30.36%	40.00%	21.45%
Matrix 4 (Wed)			23.09%
F9: The Fast Saga	51.75%	21.05%	17.22%	19.48%
Bullet Train + EA	66.24%	32.91%	19.62%	25.48%
Knock at the Cabin	46.04%	25.18%		20.12%
Black Phone + EA	70.99%	27.48%
Creed III Total	65.84%	30.80%		20.75%
Gran Turismo	84.62%	76.07%		35.00%
Meg 2	118.25%	64.96%		34.08%

 

Creed/Bullet Train look to be the closest comps across the different periods.  Both are comping to around 2.65m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Equalizer 3	T-1	Jax	5	51	13*	179	8,874	2.02%
		Phx	6	41	48	171	7,459	2.29%
		Ral	8	52	61	225	7,797	2.89%
	Total		19	144	122	575	24,130	2.38%

*A couple of theaters in the Jacksonville area have locked their shows due to the hurricane.  

 

Equalizer 3 T-1 comps 

 - Matrix 4 - .177x (1.13m)

 - F9 - .264x (1.87m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .576x (2.65m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 2.3x (3.34m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .988x (2.97m)

 - Creed III - .449x (2.45m)

 - Gran Turismo (Thu) - 2.21x (3.1m)

 - Meg 2 - 1.26x (4.02m)

 

Size adjusted avg - 2.85m

 

Equalizer pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Equalizer 3	79.13%	31.15%	38.01%	26.93%
Matrix 4 (Wed)			24.83%	16.67%
F9: The Fast Saga	75.75%	22.24%	16.27%	26.07%
Bullet Train + EA	90.29%	32.00%	26.33%	27.59%
Knock at the Cabin	72.41%	26.21%	13.08%	23.15%
Black Phone + EA			21.76%	29.91%
Creed III Total			32.33%	36.71%
Gran Turismo	111.38%	68.29%	61.54%	20.37%
Meg 2	143.62%	62.23%		53.18%

 

Not much change today.  Hurricane affecting what was looking like a solid sales day.  I don't think 3m is out of the question, but I'm still thinking under (~2.7m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/29/2023 at 8:18 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Greek Wedding 3	T-9	Jax	5	13	5	27	1,351	2.00%
		Phx	6	16	4	24	1,490	1.61%
		Ral	6	15	3	15	1,673	0.90%
	Total		17	44	12	66	4,514	1.46%

 

Greek Wedding T-9 comps

 - Magic Mike 3 - .786x (786k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .357x (453k)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - 1.065x (1.17m)

 - Strays (Total) - 1x (1.1m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .023x (502k)

 

Size adjusted average - 904k

 

1m should be in play.  Pretty good early sales for a comedy

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Greek Wedding	T-8	Jax	5	13	2	29	1,351	2.15%
		Phx	6	16	0	24	1,490	1.61%
		Ral	7	17	1	16	1,877	0.85%
	Total		18	46	3	69	4,718	1.46%

 

Greek Wedding T-8 comps

 - Magic Mike 3 - .697x (697k)

 - 80 for Brady (Total) - .329x (417k)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - .932x (1.03m)

 - Strays (Total) - 1.05x (1.15m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .021x (468k)

 

Size adjusted average - 857k

[Shawn Robbins]

8 hours ago, mredblood said:

Any news for The Nun 2 ticket selling

It's staggered from the looks of it. I see multiple chains on sale in the same areas, but the same regions don't have *all* of their theaters live yet. Looks like sales notifications started going out around 3am Eastern Tuesday morning.

[vafrow]

The Nun 2, Thursday previews T-8.5/ Day 1 (~20hrs), southern Ontario

 

Total sales:  24

New Sales: 24

Growth from yesterday: NA

Theatre Count:  48

Showtimes:  115

Tickets per showtime: 0.209

Coverage Radius: 143km

Estimated population coverage: 8-10M

Theatres Tracked: MTC4

 

Not pulling in comps since I don't have much, especially being Day 1, but also at T8/9 range. But gives a baseline if I continue doing updates.

 

 

[el sid]

The Equalizer 3 counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 265 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 77 (10 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 10 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 14 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 13 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 86 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 93 (11 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 558.

Up good 82% since Monday.
Comps (all films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Friday): Fast X (67M OW) had 1.999 sold tickets,
Plane (10.3M) had 248 sold tickets,
Angel Has Fallen (21.4M) had 293,
Rambo V (18.9M) had 228,
JW4 (73.8M) had 2.584,
Creed III (58.4M) had 1.305,

BT (30M) had 1.000

and Meg 2 (30M) had 486 sold tickets.
 

Still a very wide range from the comps. But the jump was good, which was also very needed after the pretty bad Friday presales in my theaters on Monday. Problem is, other films like Creed III had an even bigger jump back then (96%) so it did rather lose ground in the comps.
Because I think that it's a walk-up film I would say that 30M OW could happen. Meg 2 had 651 sold tickets on Thursday for Friday and The Equalizer 3 should reach that number by tomorrow.

[el sid]

Very nice presales for The Nun II in my theaters. Already 197 sold tickets for Thursday, September 7. And very evenly distributed so far (between 40-50 sold tickets in each of my 4 bigger theaters). The tickets must have gone on sale after 9am EST.

Will look at it tomorrow again but that's e.g. better than what The Invitation (96) had on Monday of the release week. M3gan had on Monday of the release week 274 sold tickets.

Edited August 30, 2023 by el sid

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Expend4bles T-23: 34.19% Awareness

It Lives Inside T-23: 18.97% Awareness

Dumb Money T-37: 15.77% Awareness

The Exorcist: Believer T-44: 37.39% Awareness

Ordinary Angels T-44: 10.4% Awareness

Next Goal Wins T-79: 9.66% Awareness

Captain America: Brave New World T-331: 42.32% Awareness

 

The Equalizer 3 T-2: 53.68% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 90% chance of 20M, 70% chance of 30M

Medium Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M

 

Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie T-30: 37.2% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 61% chance of 20M

Animation/Family Awareness: 80% chance of 10M, 40% chance of 20M

 

Freelance T-37: 23.75% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 53% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 32% chance of 10M

[abracadabra1998]

19 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Equalizer 3 (T-2):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	116	63	210	18569	1.28

 

Comps:

The Woman King- Missed

1.64x Gran Turismo- $2.3 Million

0.58x Blue Beetle- $1.93 Million

 

Nice bump today, over $2 million is my expectation at the moment.

 

Bottoms (Expansion, T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 8 theaters	24	29	144	2279	6.71

 

Comp:

0.32x Asteroid City- $358k (Large margin for error here, I'm having to adjust since I was tracking less theaters back then, including the local Alamo theater that is responsible for most of the sales here)

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Equalizer 3 (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	117	120	330	18701	1.76

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	57.14
3-Day:	192.04

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

1.39x The Woman King- 2.37 Million (N/A, 175%)

2.31x Gran Turismo- $3.23 Million (12%, 96%)

0.72x Blue Beetle- $2.36 Million (28%,95%)

 

Fandango was being a b*tch today so I had to go into a bunch of individual theater chains' websites... not fun! Anyways, hell of an update and that 3-day growth is awesome. I will yet again be unable to give a T-1 hour update, so based on pace my way too early prediction is going to be $2.75 Million, +/- 0.25.

 

With the Fandango issues, no Bottoms update  rooting for it nonetheless.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

THE EQUALIZER 3

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
194	720	34211	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

111

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

20

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.314x) of Mi7 (TUES ONLY)

~$2.34M THUR Previews

 

(0.289x) of Fast X

~$2.17M THUR Previews

 

(1.387x) of Gran Turismo

~$1.94M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $2.15M

 

Increased against all comps today

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

THE EQUALIZER 3

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
201	791	35456	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

71

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(0.345x) of Mi7 (TUES ONLY)

~$2.41M THUR Previews

 

(0.267x) of Fast X

~$2.00M THUR Previews

 

(1.332x) of Gran Turismo

~$1.86M THUR Previews

 

(1.186x) of Meg 2

~$3.91M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $2.54M

 

Guess I'll go with $2.6M previews for now

[TheFlatLannister]

On 8/29/2023 at 7:08 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3  

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
128	145	22768	0.64%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.407x) of Strays

~$336k THUR Previews

 

(0.954x) of Ruby Gilman

~$691k THUR Previews

 

(0.771x) of Asteroid City

~$848k THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $625k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING 3  

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
128	144	22768	0.64%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

-1

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(0.383x) of Strays

~$315k THUR Previews

 

(1.582x) of Ruby Gilman

~$1.15M THUR Previews

 

(0.706x) of Asteroid City

~$776k THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $747k

 

Zero tickets sold, 1 seat refunded 

Edited August 30, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

The Nun II

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
156	267	27896	0.96%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(1.103x) of Insidious: The Red Door

~$5.52M THUR Previews

 

(2.038x) of Talk to me

~$2.54M THUR Previews

 

(2.136x) of Boogeyman

~$2.35M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $3.47M

 

Off to an great start 

[Cmasterclay]

Equalizer 2 did 3.1 previews for a 35 OW in July. While things have been more preview heavy in the years since, 3m flat with a holiday Sunday should get it to 30.

[Relevation]

31 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville greater region 

 

The Nun II

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
156	267	27896	0.96%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(1.103x) of Insidious: The Red Door

~$5.52M THUR Previews

 

(2.038x) of Talk to me

~$2.54M THUR Previews

 

(2.136x) of Boogeyman

~$2.35M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $3.47M

 

Off to an great start 

Do you have a Meg 2 comp, since that’s also a GA heavy WB sequel to a 2018 movie with an abbreviated sales window 

[Eric is Quiet]

6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Equalizer 2 did 3.1 previews for a 35 OW in July. While things have been more preview heavy in the years since, 3m flat with a holiday Sunday should get it to 30.

Seems a bit high. Shang-Chi's IM with 3M would get it to 25.7M. And that movie is two years old and had previews start at 6PM. Even moving it up a tad, to like 9x its preview, is still just 27M.

 

Which would still be good and fine for this, especially since its target audience don't go to the movies anymore and it's the last movie anyways.

[TheFlatLannister]

35 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Do you have a Meg 2 comp, since that’s also a GA heavy WB sequel to a 2018 movie with an abbreviated sales window 

Meg comp is at $5.05M. I will add that comp in tomorrow 

[misterpepp]

I am not sure if this forum knows about this or not yet, my usual go-to guy told me this:

 

Taylor Swift Eras concert film of some sort coming (possibly probably not exclusive to AMC?) on 10/13. Will play for at least 4 weeks, maximum of 26(!) weeks.

 

Same price at every theater: $19.89 for an adult ticket (Yes, the gag you're thinking of is intentional). Child ticket will be $13.13.

 

More info should come out next week, if this is accurate. I've trusted my usual source up 'til now, I'm trusting him here too.

EDIT: I can't confirm for certain that it's exclusive to AMC or not, it's possible that it's everywhere. My guy has only been able to state that AMC at least will be playing it.

EDIT 2: Not a source of mine, but somebody on Reddit replied to Bob's re-post of this and said it'll be playing at Cinemark as well. I don't know that individual, so take that for what you will.

Edited August 31, 2023 by datpepper

[Bob Train]

33 minutes ago, datpepper said:

I am not sure if this forum knows about this or not yet, my usual go-to guy told me this:

 

Taylor Swift Eras concert film of some sort coming (possibly exclusive to AMC?) on 10/13. Will play for at least 4 weeks.

 

Same price at every theater: $19.89 for an adult ticket (Yes, the gag you're thinking of is intentional).

 

More info should come out next week, if this is accurate. I've trusted my usual source up 'til now, I'm trusting him here too.

EDIT: I can't confirm for certain that it's exclusive to AMC or not, it's possible that it's everywhere. My guy has only been able to state that AMC at least will be playing it.

$200m dom. Only half joking.

Edited August 31, 2023 by Bob Train

[Relevation]

43 minutes ago, datpepper said:

I am not sure if this forum knows about this or not yet, my usual go-to guy told me this:

 

Taylor Swift Eras concert film of some sort coming (possibly exclusive to AMC?) on 10/13. Will play for at least 4 weeks.

 

Same price at every theater: $19.89 for an adult ticket (Yes, the gag you're thinking of is intentional).

 

More info should come out next week, if this is accurate. I've trusted my usual source up 'til now, I'm trusting him here too.

EDIT: I can't confirm for certain that it's exclusive to AMC or not, it's possible that it's everywhere. My guy has only been able to state that AMC at least will be playing it.

Well that just immediately offset any losses the box office took this year due to Dune 2 moving

[filmlover]

Taylor has finally figured out how to declare herself as a big screen movie star.