The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

el sid · November 21, 2023

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Last year we had Menu, Strange World, Devotion, Glass Onion (less than 1000 theaters), plus Bones & All and Fablemans - not a single breakout there. BPWF accounted for about half the TG gross in its 3rd weekend. The floor isn’t dropping on anything that opened last weekend/will open this week, enough decent product to spread business around

I can only report from my small seven-theaters-samples :
Glass Onion looked very good in the few theaters it got, The Fabelmans and Bones & All had terrible presales and Strange World had muted presales. The Menu did ok.

I admit that I also only can hope that Napoleon overperforms. But it's the first film in my theaters which had a decent jump till Monday and till today which was unexpected. The last and only film in recent months which didn't sink in its last week was Saw X.
And other reports here look also quite good which is of course very important.

Halberstram · November 21, 2023

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

My *ahem* wish is for all of the disappointed Disney adults to take their dollar to Boy and the Heron in a couple weeks…

People will probably stay home tbh.

MovieMan89 · November 21, 2023

3 minutes ago, Halberstram said:

People will probably stay home tbh.

It’s a joke dude. I don’t actually expect the lost Wish audience to go see Heron now

YachtyLogs · November 21, 2023

On 11/20/2023 at 2:37 PM, YachtyLogs said:

WONKA

T-25

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

5/1245 - (0.40%)

New sold: 0

New showtimes: 0

Total showtimes: 9

Seats added: 0

Total sellouts: 0

No sales today. Doesn't seem to be catching on *that* well in this area unfortunately.

WONKA

T-24

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

5/1245 - (0.40%)

New sold: 0

New showtimes: 0

Total showtimes: 9

Seats added: 0

Total sellouts: 0

Another no sales day for Wonka.

YachtyLogs · November 21, 2023

On 11/20/2023 at 2:49 PM, YachtyLogs said:

AQUAMAN 2

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

First Day - Afternoon sales

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

3/2861 - (0.10%)

New sold: 3

New showtimes: 21

Total showtimes: 21

Seats added: 2861

Total sellouts: 0

Alright, I've added two new theaters to sample for this one. And.....sales are abysmal. I don't really have any comparisons yet for what sales should be right now, but only 3 sales...isn't looking too good.

AQUAMAN 2

T-30

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

12/2861 - (0.42%)

New sold: 9

New showtimes: 0

Total showtimes: 0

Seats added: 0

Total sellouts: 0

Definitely better than it was but...that's not saying much. Still not much action going on over here.

Edited November 21, 2023 by YachtyLogs

YachtyLogs · November 21, 2023

On 11/20/2023 at 2:53 PM, YachtyLogs said:

MIGRATION

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

First Day - Afternoon sales

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

0/1697 - (0%)

New sold: 0

New showtimes: 16

Total showtimes: 16

Seats added: 1697

Total sellouts: 0

Yikes, not doing too well. From what I've heard, children animation films are less dependent on presales as other films, but I would've hoped at least one ticket would've been sold by now.

MIGRATION

T-30

Small SE Wisconsin Sample

0/1453 - (0%)

New sold: 0

New showtimes: -1

Total showtimes: 15

Seats added: -244

Total sellouts: 0

No tickets yet, lost a show, and was downgraded to a smaller screen in a few other showings...not doin' hot here.

vafrow · November 21, 2023

Showtimes are still going up for this weekend, but by the look of things, Eras Tour looks like it's being dropped from 80% or more of theatres this weekend. It makes sense with all the competition.

YM! · November 21, 2023

2 hours ago, YM! said:

Joining @YachtyLogs in some Milwaukee tracking today, but I will be using the North area, primarily North Shore Cinema and Menomonee Falls Cinema

Wish (as of 2:31 pm, 29 minutes before showtime)

247/1977 seats (898 PLF, 247 3D, 832 2D) - 44% PLF, 2.6% 3D, 53.4% regular of those sold - 12.5% of sales

Napoleon (as of 2:40 pm, 20 minutes before showtime)

272/987 seats (538 2D, 449 PLF) - 22.4% PLF, 77.6% regular - 27.6 % of sales

I am pretty impressed with Napoleon's growth, the 3:00 at one theater is almost sold out and think feel confident in 2M previews. Wish is kind of soft so far, will check again in like 10 minutes but I believe the main districts are still in school today, but the evening shows are where the real driving of tickets is. Thinking around 1.5M

Wish had now moved an additional 71 tickets in the past two hours. Pretty weak matinee showing but that’s to be expected. The evening shows look much healthier.

From eyeballing, Menominee looks half full at 6:30 pm PLF which is great, and the PLF for North Shore at 7 is 15% full. 6:00 normal is about half full. All of which 1.5 to 2 hours to go.

Edited November 21, 2023 by YM!

Hilts · November 21, 2023

On 11/20/2023 at 10:41 PM, Hilts said:

I like to give 24+ hours before first posting numbers, I know other trackers can give earlier indications but just don't see the volume that early in my particular market to provide any kind of accuracy since it's not as presale heavy.

Very early look though is that Migration is dead quiet, not surprising since Wish is out tomorrow, not sure who's bright idea it was to start now, probably won't see much action here for a bit. Aquaman should beat out Blue Beetle (closer than I expected though) but not expecting it to get close to FNAF, Marvels or Hunger Games for example. So something in between which seems to align with the rest of the thread. Full updates tomorrow.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom		OK

Thursday - showings starting 3pm	ATP	$16.11

Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-30	20	106	102	102	22,623	0.45%

MTC1	8	43	+71	71	8,429	0.84%
MTC2	4	22	+25	25	4,062	0.62%
MTC3	3	23	+6	6	6,008	0.10%
Other	5	18	0	0	4,124	0.00%

Day 1 Comps
Blue Beetle	1.342x	=	$4.43m
The Marvels	0.395x	=	$2.61m
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of S&S	0.411x	=	$2.36m

Matinee: 9.80%

3D: 7.84%

PLF: 58.82%

Similar tepid start to everyone else here.

Migration only sold 6 tickets so far so can't tell too much from that yet.

Hilts · November 21, 2023

5-Day Weekend Box Office Forecast: NAPOLEON and WISH Aim to Bring Out Thanksgiving Moviegoers - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, November 26	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd	5-Day Weekend Forecast
Wish	Disney	$37,000,000	$56,300,000	~3,700	NEW	$56,300,000
Napoleon	Sony Pictures & Apple	$20,900,000	$32,500,000	~3,300	NEW	$32,500,000
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes	Lionsgate	$20,500,000	$82,400,000	~3,776	-54%	$29,800,000
Trolls Band Together	Universal Pictures	$18,200,000	$64,200,000	~3,870	-39%	$26,500,000
Thanksgiving	Sony Pictures & TriStar	$7,000,000	$22,900,000	~3,204	-32%	$10,000,000
The Marvels	Disney & Marvel Studios	$6,800,000	$77,000,000	~3,800	-33%	$9,500,000
Saltburn	Amazon Studios	$3,600,000	$5,400,000	~1,500	+1027%	$5,000,000
The Holdovers	Focus Features	$2,200,000	$12,100,000	~1,500	-18%	$3,000,000
Five Nights at Freddy’s	Universal Pictures & Blumhouse	$1,900,000	$136,200,000	~1,800	-47%	$2,700,000
Next Goal Wins	Disney & Searchlight Pictures	$1,500,000	$5,200,000	~2,240	-40%	$2,100,000

Shawn Robbins · November 21, 2023

On 11/17/2023 at 5:34 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

Wish (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-1 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold

Tuesday: 20 theaters 102 67 260 12149 2.14

Saturday Nov 18 EA: 9 theaters 9 112 281 1100 25.55

TOTALS: 111 179 541 13249 4.08

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:

PLFs: 5 5 0.92

MTC1: 249 69 46.03

Marcus: 110 37 20.33

Alamo: 7 4 1.29

Other chains: 175 69 32.35

Tuesday Comps:

1.35x Haunted Mansion (THU): $4.18 Million

0.3x Paw Patrol (FRI): $2.03 Million

2.3x Trolls: Band Together: $2.64 Million

Average: $2.95 Million

EA Comp:

0.29x Trolls: Band Together Saturday EA: $290k (assuming 1 million that has been thrown around in this thread, reallyyyyyyy hope we can get a Trolls EA number... @Shawn any luck for this??)

0.43x MI7 SUN + MON EA: $850k

0.24x Barbie EA: $260k

Wish's EA seems like it'll be way lower than Trolls, a lot less interest for that. Pegging it at around $250-500k. For Tuesday? Well I just lost the TMNT comp, which was far and away the best one so.... don't think I'll be of much help with this one sadly.

Napoleon (T-4):

Day: T-4 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold

Totals: 19 theaters 62 134 406 8960 4.53

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:

PLFs: 276 100 67.98

MTC1: 195 59 48.03

Marcus: 95 30 23.4

Alamo: 46 9 11.33

Other chains: 70 36 17.24

Comps:

0.6x KOFM: $1.57 Million

1.69x The Creator (THU): $2.28 Million

0.15x Oppy: $1.59 Million

0.3x MI7 (just TUE): $2.1 Million

Average: $1.89 Million

Keeps on rising, looking close at that MI7 comp since the weekend being in the middle of these final days always throws a wrench into the pace of things. But not too shabby, all things considered.

The studio has been mum on the EA number so far, unfortunately; they only confirmed that $1.3 million was from Thursday and that EA was included somewhere in the weekend numbers.

TheFlatLannister · November 22, 2023

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

MIGRATION

Thursday Previews

T-31

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

173

137

32850

0.42%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

First few hours

(0.395x) of ELEMENTAL $950k Previews

Comps AVG: $950k

Too early to make any real projections

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

MIGRATION

Thursday Previews

T-30

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
173	163	32850	0.50%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

26

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-30

(0.976x) of Trolls 3 $1.27M Previews

Comps AVG: $1.27M

TheFlatLannister · November 22, 2023

On 11/20/2023 at 7:02 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

WONKA

Thursday Previews

T-24

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

193

710

35938

2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

28

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-24

(0.425x) of Indy 5 $3.06M Previews

(0.381x) of TLM $3.93M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.50M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

WONKA

Thursday Previews

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
193	716	35938	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

6

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-23

(0.424x) of Indy 5 $3.06M Previews

(0.372x) of TLM $3.83M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.45M

TheFlatLannister · November 22, 2023

On 11/20/2023 at 6:58 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

Thursday Previews

T-10

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

148

267

30792

0.87%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

13

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

44

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-10

(0.505x) of Exorcist $1.44M Previews

(0.701x) of The Creator $946k Previews

Comps AVG: $1.19M

EA sales *separate from Thursdays previews listed above*

596 seats sold over 20 showings

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

Thursday Previews

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
148	281	30792	0.91%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

14

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-9

(0.499x) of Exorcist $1.42M Previews

(0.679x) of The Creator $916k Previews

Comps AVG: $1.17M

EA sales *separate from Thursdays previews listed above*

615 seats sold over 20 showings

Eric is Quiet · November 22, 2023

44 minutes ago, Shawn said:

The studio has been mum on the EA number so far, unfortunately; they only confirmed that $1.3 million was from Thursday and that EA was included somewhere in the weekend numbers.

Thats so wack. Ruins the fun of box office tracking imo

TheFlatLannister · November 22, 2023

On 11/20/2023 at 7:11 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

Thursday Previews

T-31

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

188

467

38172

1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

First few hours

(1.079x) of Blue Beetle $3.56M Previews

(0.293x) of The Flash $2.84M Previews

(0.288x) of The Marvels $1.90M Previews

Comps AVG: $2.77M

This does not feel like a $50M opener to me.

Now, this is bad like really bad but some things to note: It has a longer presales window than Blue beetle and The Flash - Like many have said including @M37 this is going to be pretty backloaded because of the Holidays. 1/4th of The Marvels is nuts regardless

❌ No signs of a breakout

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

Thursday Previews

T-30

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
188	532	38172	1.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

65

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

SELLOUTS

0

COMPS

T-30

(0.329x) of The Marvels $2.17M Previews

(0.351x) of Indy 5 $2.52M Previews

(0.141x) of GOTG 3 $2.48M Previews

Comps AVG: $2.39M

Blue beetle sold more tickets on day 2 that's wild lol.

No Blue Beetle comp or Flash comp until T-22. Using Indy 5 and Guardians temporarily

Edited November 22, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

Bob Train · November 22, 2023

51 minutes ago, Shawn said:

The studio has been mum on the EA number so far, unfortunately; they only confirmed that $1.3 million was from Thursday and that EA was included somewhere in the weekend numbers.

Deadline listed it as 1.1m in their article, but it appears to have not been rolled into the OW unlike other recent movies.

https://deadline.com/2023/11/box-office-hunger-games-songbirds-and-snakes-1235616095/

Quote

2.) Trolls Band Together (Uni/DWA) 3,870 theaters Fri $9.35M Sat $12.2M Sun $8.97M 3-day $30.6M/Total $31.7M

Edited November 22, 2023 by Bob Train

Porthos · November 22, 2023

15 hours ago, Porthos said:

Quick and Dirty Wish Sacramento Report [T-1]

1788/15179 (11.78% sold) [+164 tickets] [634 EA (FINAL) | 1154 Tue (+305)] 122 showings (9 EA | 113 Tue)

1.8226x Elemental at T-1 [NO OVERALL COMP THANKS TO EA/DT MIX]

0.93612x Elemental FINAL TOTAL

TUESDAY ONLY COMPS:

No Adjustment for Discount Tuesday:

0.80643x TMNT at T-1   [3.10m]

Adjusted Downward by 25% for Discount Tuesday:
1.17635x Elemental at T-1      [2.12m]

0.55481x GBA at T-1             [2.12m] [Adjusted for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.40028x Sonic 2 at T-1       [1.88m]
1.42645x Shazam 2 at T-1    [3.64m]
0.16404x AtSV at T-1            [2.12m]
0.12208x Barbie at T-1          [2.04m]
0.81039x HM at T-1              [1.88m]
0.22395x FNAF at T-1          [1.73m]

========

EA ONLY COMP:

0.33194x Elemental [FINAL] [797k - SAT ONLY]

======================

So I decided to bite the bullet and throw a shit ton of comps on the wall, going for the ones that were more kids friendly/lower ATP than others. Also decided to apply a 25% Discount Tuesday penalty. Might be too low as I've seen some folks use 30%, but eh.

Even with the DT penalty factored in, and using very kids-friendly movie comps that were in the 2m-3m range like Haunted Mansion and Elemental, Sacramento is probably running pretty hot. In fact, the pure not-DT adj Elemental comp didn't go down all that much as it went from 3.02m to 2.82m.

Have to see where Sacramento is pointing at the end of the day before I make any final conclusions.

Next, and final, update will be around 4:30ish Pacific, as I don't generally post mid-day updates for Q&D's.

Quick and Dirty Wish Sacramento Report [FINAL] [3:55pm - 4:10pm]

NOTE: All showtimes before 3:55pm were sampled at the start of their showing.

2571/15130 (16.99% sold) [+783 tickets] [634 EA (FINAL) | 1937 Tue (+783)] 121 showings (9 EA | 112 Tue)

TUESDAY ONLY COMPS:

No Adjustment for Discount Tuesday:

0.66336x TMNT at T-0 [2.55m]

Adjusted Downward by 25% for Discount Tuesday:

1.01414x Elemental at T-0 [1.83m]

0.63843x GBA at T-0            [2.44m] [Adjusted for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.49026x Sonic 2 at T-0       [2.30m]
1.16476x Shazam 2 at T-0   [2.97m]
0.19879x AtSV at T-0            [2.57m]
0.16039x Barbie at T-0 [2.68m]
0.84181x HM at T-0               [1.96m]
0.29957x FNAF at T-0          [2.31m]

========

EA ONLY COMP:

0.33194x Elemental [FINAL] [797k - SAT ONLY]

===

Tue Elemental comp still went down, but the bottom didn't fall out. Most of the other comps are pointing to 2.5m-ish for Tue Only, but I think most of them don't have enough kids tickets/too many PLF seats sold. So let's split the difference between Haunted Mansion and Elemental and say 1.9m +/- .2m for Tue Only and stick with 800k +/- .2m for Sat EA.

Combined that makes Sacramento looking like 2.7m +/- .4m.

(.4m +/- thanks to EA as well as Tue)

Do think Sacramento is running hot, though as I look over at Oklahoma, perhaps not. Probably gonna be closer to 2.5m when all is said and done, but I tend to like to go where the numbers are pointing. And, well, my stances on caring that much about Q&D reports are well established by now.

DAJK · November 22, 2023

Napoleon selling VERY well around here. I could easily see this being a bit of a breakout.

TheFlatLannister · November 22, 2023

what do we mean by breakout? $35M OW?

Day: T-4, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 20 theaters	102	67	260	12149	2.14
Saturday Nov 18 EA: 9 theaters	9	112	281	1100	25.55
TOTALS:	111	179	541	13249	4.08

Type of tix:	Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:	5	5	0.92
MTC1:	249	69	46.03
Marcus:	110	37	20.33
Alamo:	7	4	1.29
Other chains:	175	69	32.35

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	62	134	406	8960	4.53

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