The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Hilts said:

Just thinking aloud here but would MI7 be a reasonable recent comp for TMNT?

 

Appreciate volumes may not be especially comparable but in terms of pace given the mid-week opening and EA shows the prior weekend/Monday

 

🤷‍♂️

 

It's a better comp than many simply because of Discount Tuesday.  I'm using an MI7 comp for my Q&D's, for instance.

 

If it wasn't for Discount Tuesday throwing a monkey wrench into things, the best recent comp for TMNT would probably be RotB.  That had EA as well, though no sneaks.

 

ETA:

 

The only real problem with an MI7 comp, IMO (as pace/size can be managed), is that Paramount in their infinite wisdom reported a Tuesday Only preview number, requiring us punters to try to figure out what the combined Sun/Mon/Tue number was.  At the moment, I'm using the 8.8m figure reverse engineered by @across the Jat verse and his analysis of the data.

 

If @Shawn was ever to get a more official number from Paramount, or his sources, I'll go ahead and use that though.

Edited July 25, 2023 by Porthos

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/24/2023 at 6:16 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

GRAN TURISMO

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
107	120	18849	0.64%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

11

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-17

EA Wednesday = 194 sold 

~$600k EA 

 

(0.0869x) of Fast X

~$650k THUR Previews

 

~$1.2M total previews 

 

Back to normal. Around ~10 seats sold today, but not sure about the specific number 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

GRAN TURISMO

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
107	147	18849	0.78%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

27

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-16

EA Wednesday = 217 sold (+23)

~$600k EA 

 

(0.105x) of Fast X

~$780k THUR Previews

 

~$1.3M total previews 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/24/2023 at 6:19 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

HAUNTED MANSION

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
117	2366	20664	11.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

297

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.574x) of TLM

~$5.91M THUR Previews

 

Excellent day locally

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

HAUNTED MANSION

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
127	2722	24184	11.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

356

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

20

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.583x) of TLM

~$6.00M THUR Previews

 

Adjusted down ~$5M

 

Haunted mansion is a pretty popular ride at Disney world, so this is going to overindex by quite a bit...

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/24/2023 at 6:25 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The First Slam Dunk

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
25	26	3518	0.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.164x) of Boogeyman

~$123k THUR Previews

 

(0.176x) of Ruby Gillman

~$127k THUR Previews

 

COMP AVG: $125k

 

ummm....

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The First Slam Dunk

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
25	34	3518	0.96%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.104x) of Boogeyman

~$114k THUR Previews

 

(0.194x) of Ruby Gillman

~$141k THUR Previews

 

COMP AVG: $127k

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/24/2023 at 6:26 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Talk To Me

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
34	215	5752	3.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

11

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.705x) of Boogeyman

~$775k THUR Previews

 

(1.221x) of The Blackening 

~$916k THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $845k 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Talk To Me

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
34	248	5752	4.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

33

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.758x) of Boogeyman

~$834k THUR Previews

 

(1.170x) of The Blackening 

~$877k THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $855k 

 

MTC1 has two Wednesday EA showings, that should push comp avg to $1M

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St.Paul Area Previews:

 

Haunted Mansion (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	59	50	243	7242	3.36
Wednesday EA: 2 theaters	2	14	130	380	34.21
TOTALS:	61	64	373	7622	4.89

 

0.059x Barbie- $1.33 Million

 

Talk To Me (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 12 theaters	33	20	91	2499	3.64
Wednesday EA: 2 theaters	2	6	43	236	18.22
TOTALS:	35	26	134	2735	4.9

 

Comps:

0.7x Insidious: Red Door: $3.52 Million

0.24x Smile: $473k

1.98x Beast: $1.83 Million

 

Tomorrow these comps will start converging more, it'll fall at a fast rate

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:
 

Haunted Mansion (T-2):

Day: T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 19 theaters	68	38	281	7606	3.69
Wednesday EA: 2 theaters	2	10	140	380	36.84
TOTALS:	70	48	421	7986	5.27

 

This just isn't doing much here. Also, while it got some more new shows, some theaters shuffled screens around and gave smaller ones to this, surely because of Barbenheimer. Very low number of seats available (only around 400 per theater).

 

Talk To Me (T-2):

Day: T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 15 theaters	42	35	126	3526	3.57
Wednesday EA: 2 theaters	2	11	54	236	22.88
TOTALS:	44	46	180	3762	4.78

 

Comps (without EA):

0.42x Insidious: Red Door: $2.1 Million

0.17x Smile: $331k

1.19x Barbarian: $1.01 Million

1.12x Beast: $1.03 Million

 

Around $1 million sounds right

 

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-6, T-4	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 19 theaters	118	99	216	17077	1.26
Monday EA: 8 theaters	8	169	314	1656	18.96
Saturday EA: 5 theaters	5	89	165	603	27.36
TOTALS:	131	357	695	19336	3.59

 

"New seats" number encompasses 7 days.

 

Comps:

0.52x MI7- $4.6 Million (using unofficial $8.8 like @Porthos said)
0.17x Barbie- $3.9 Million

 

Not bad, but it does seem quite EA frontloaded

 

Going back on lurking mode and won't be back until next Sunday, ~10 days from now. Showing the gf around my country of birth, should be fun  

Edited July 25, 2023 by abracadabra1998
Messed up Talk To Me Comp numbers, fixed them

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/24/2023 at 6:33 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

TMNT 

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
203	748	36938	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

33

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

53

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

EA

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
10	492	1756	28.0%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-8

*Without EA

 

(1.285x) of Elemental

~$3.08M TUE Previews  W/O EA

 

(8.219x) of Ruby Gillman

~$6.16M TUE Previews  W/O EA

 

AVG: $4.62M TUE only + $1Mish EA = $5.62M+

 

 

Ruby GIllman started to collapse around this time, so that comp may be a bit deceiving.

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

TMNT 

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
203	753	36938	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

EA

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
10	519	1756	29.6%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

27

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-7

*Without EA

 

(1.197x) of Elemental

~$2.87M TUE Previews  W/O EA

 

(0.442x) of RoTB

~$3.89M TUE Previews W/O EA

 

AVG: $3.38M TUE only + $1Mish EA = $4.38M+

Edited July 25, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

 

THE MEG 2: THE TRENCH

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
148	106	25785	0.41%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.0875x) of Mi7 (Using the $7m Tues gross only because I separated TUE sales from EA sales)

~$612k THUR Previews  

 

(0.0662x) of Fast X

~$492k THUR Previews 

 

(0.0674x) of RoTB

~$593k THUR Previews  

 

Comp AVG: $565k

 

Tepid start to presales 

Edited July 25, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[keysersoze123]

31 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

TMNT 

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
203	753	36938	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

EA

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
10	519	1756	29.6%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

27

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-7

*Without EA

 

(1.197x) of Elemental

~$2.87M TUE Previews  W/O EA

 

(7.926x) of Ruby Gillman

~$5.75M TUE Previews  W/O EA

 

AVG: $4.31M TUE only + $1Mish EA = $5.31M+

Try looking for better comps. Ruby Gillman was huge bomb. Elemental also had weak presales. I am not certain this is comparable to family flicks. I would look at Transformers. 

[Porthos]

-deleted-

Edited July 25, 2023 by Porthos

[TheFlatLannister]

20 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Try looking for better comps. Ruby Gillman was huge bomb. Elemental also had weak presales. I am not certain this is comparable to family flicks. I would look at Transformers. 

added RoTB

[Rocketracoon]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

HAUNTED MANSION

 

THURSDAY Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
127	2722	24184	11.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

356

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

20

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.583x) of TLM

~$6.00M THUR Previews

 

Adjusted down ~$5M

 

Haunted mansion is a pretty popular ride at Disney world, so this is going to overindex by quite a bit...

So depending on the IM can this get close to $50 Million off 5 million previews?

[keysersoze123]

15 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

added RoTB

That is great. But if Early shows are just AMC its not going to add 1m. Closer to 200K or so. 

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is great. But if Early shows are just AMC its not going to add 1m. Closer to 200K or so. 

 

EA is universal for Turtles; it's Haunted Mansion which is AMC only.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

EA is universal for Turtles; it's Haunted Mansion which is AMC only.

Grr. Too many of these around. 

[DAJK]

Haunted Mansion is going to do squat overseas. Would be surprised if it even matched Ghostbusters Afterlife total. Supernatural movies just don't have the international appeal they do domestically.

 

So, yea, that 160M budget is huge baggage for the film. Even if it breaks out domestically and does something crazy like 180M, it ain't touching profitability theatrically.

[TheFlatLannister]

41 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is great. But if Early shows are just AMC its not going to add 1m. Closer to 200K or so. 

There seems to be sneaks on Sunday across the MTCs. Monday EA also across all MTCs here. Very few shows, but they are selling well.

[TheFlatLannister]

52 minutes ago, Rocketracoon said:

So depending on the IM can this get close to $50 Million off 5 million previews?

I would not look to my comps for Haunted Mansion. Like I stated, Haunted mansion is a very popular ride at Disney so its definitely going to overindex here. Not sure by how much. 

[emoviefan]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

 

THE MEG 2: THE TRENCH

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
148	106	25785	0.41%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.0875x) of Mi7 (Using the $7m Tues gross only because I separated TUE sales from EA sales)

~$612k THUR Previews  

 

(0.0662x) of Fast X

~$492k THUR Previews 

 

(0.0674x) of RoTB

~$593k THUR Previews  

 

Comp AVG: $565k

 

Tepid start to presales 

It's like this is a no thanks I'm good with just one of these movies movie or something. 

[keysersoze123]

Meg 2 china OW > Meg 2 domestic 🙂

 

/s

Edited July 26, 2023 by keysersoze123