Weekend Thread 7/28-7/30 - Barbenheimer Week 2; Barbie 93M/Oppy 46.2M - Haunted Mansion & Talk to Me OW; Mansion 24.2M, Talk 10M

[filmlover]

Just now, ringedmortality said:

How about biggest Deadline flops. They only have five every year:

 

1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

2. The Flash

3. Shazam: Fury of the Gods

4. Dungeons and Dragons

5. Haunted Mansion

Any rumors as to how much Blue Beetle cost? Cause that's starting to feel like a sub-$35M grosser to me.

[kayumanggi]

 

[TMP]

Still profoundly confused as to how Haunted Mansion scored so incredibly well on Quorum. I feel like it's been a pretty iffy metric for tracking as-is, but considering that it was the only metric going in HM's favor then I guess we can say it's pretty weak to use on its own

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, Celedhring said:

 

Yeah, I'm betting 90% of people that watched POTC worldwide don't even know it's - supposedly - based off a ride. The whole "based on a ride" provides no boost.

 

I suppose the whole justification of these theme park movies is the obsession with corporate synergy. Disney seems to have become incapable of greenlighting any single live action project that it's not based on existing Disney IP.

TBF Disney has never really done original IP at least on a big scale in live action unless you count things released by Touchstone or Hollywood Pictures. Indeed looking at their history, most of their most successful live action films are based on existing things like Mary Poppins or Pirates. The closest thing they've had to original IP in live action under the Disney brand is Herbie. 

 

 

[WorkingonaName]

Just now, TMP said:

Still profoundly confused as to how Haunted Mansion scored so incredibly well on Quorum. I feel like it's been a pretty iffy metric for tracking as-is, but considering that it was the only metric going in HM's favor then I guess we can say it's pretty weak to use on its own

Qurom Barbieheimer tracking should have been enough to discredit it.  

[ringedmortality]

1 minute ago, TMP said:

Still profoundly confused as to how Haunted Mansion scored so incredibly well on Quorum. I feel like it's been a pretty iffy metric for tracking as-is, but considering that it was the only metric going in HM's favor then I guess we can say it's pretty weak to use on its own

 

Just now, WorkingonaName said:

Qurom Barbieheimer tracking should have been enough to discredit it.  

 

The guy was an r/boxoffice user who just got this stuff started like last year. Why has anyone been taking him seriously.

[Borobudur]

3 minutes ago, Chaz said:

Japan needs to cool it. The 20 million dead Chinese might want to have a word with them.

Two wrong doesn't make a right. 

[filmlover]

Haunted Mansion will be an interesting one to assess the damage of in the trades because it's the first major title of the strike era where the star-studded premiere among other promotional stuff was cancelled (even though Disney did film a bunch of promo with the stars ahead of the strike and have released it leading up to the release). Looking at August's schedule there isn't a whole lot coming out where one can claim that stars being able to promote them would've helped. I guess the September releases that will have to roll the dice will be the real tests.

Edited July 30, 2023 by filmlover

[redfirebird2008]

1 hour ago, MrPink said:

The OS drop for Oppenheimer is insane, really could be looking at 800m WW…

I’m surprised the overseas legs appear to be so strong. Probably not $800M, but it seems $700M has a good chance of happening. That’s awesome!

[Mr Roark]

24 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

They are not Nolan films. The WoM is great, the IMAX demand is still massive. There are still big markets to open for Op. 800m is happening.

I don’t think Oppie will play out like a regular Nolan film. The Barbenheimer hype train changed everything skyrocketing people’s interest but that would lead to bigger drops goin forward IMO.

WOM is good but we are still talking about a dark 3 hour Rated R drama with no action.

[TMP]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Any rumors as to how much Blue Beetle cost? Cause that's starting to feel like a sub-$35M grosser to me.

$120m and considering that the star of the movie has been doing meet & greets with people from comic book twitter as the only means of getting any awareness up during an actor's strike, I think we could be looking at some Steel/Catwoman numbers

[Jonwo]

Just now, filmlover said:

Haunted Mansion will be an interesting one to assess the damage of in the trades because it's the first major title of the strike era where the star-studded premiere among other promotional stuff was cancelled (even though Disney did film a bunch of promo with the stars ahead of the strike and have released it leading up to the release). Looking at August's schedule there isn't a whole lot coming out where one can claim that stars being unable to promote them would've helped. I guess the September releases that will have to roll the dice will be the real tests.

TBH I think even if SAG and WGA weren't on strike, HM wouldn't have done much better. 

 

 

 

[filmlover]

Just now, Jonwo said:

TBH I think even if SAG and WGA weren't on strike, HM wouldn't have done much better. 

 

 

 

True, the movie was probably doomed no matter what between the mediocre reviews + Barbenheimer. Still won't stop trades from running some click bait articles on why it failed attributing it to the SAG strike though.

[ringedmortality]

2 minutes ago, TMP said:

$120m and considering that the star of the movie has been doing meet & greets with people from comic book twitter as the only means of getting any awareness up during an actor's strike, I think we could be looking at some Steel/Catwoman numbers

 

Isn't that breaking the strike?

[WorkingonaName]

Just now, ringedmortality said:

 

Isn't that breaking the strike?

Even SAG doesn't know Blue Beetle exist. 

[Borobudur]

3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

I’m surprised the overseas legs appear to be so strong. Probably not $800M, but it seems $700M has a good chance of happening. That’s awesome!

European loves drama. They are primary reason why Joker is a $1bn juggernaut and BR was a $900m hit. 

[kayumanggi]

26 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

 

[Jonwo]

13 hours ago, vale9001 said:

SOF should be a total non event OS imo. Wouldn't be surprised of like 90% box office domestic, or even more (?).

I'd say 80/20 myself, more like Lincoln and The Blind Side than American Sniper. 

 

I know a few are really gunning for it and it has done exceptionally well domestically but that is going to be difficult to replicate globally. 

[TwoMisfits]

42 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

How is Deadline Most Profitable Movies list looking like? I think something like this

1. Mario

2. Barbie

3. Oppenheimer

4. Across The Spiderverse

5. Insidious The Red Door

6. John Wick 4

7. Scream VI

8. Guardians Vol 3

 

 

 

Sound of Freedom will be on there in the lower tier...

[kayumanggi]

45 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

that really looks like quite a reach. Barbie's twitter account didn't even discuss about content of Oppenheimer movie or anything...just acknowledging the Barbenheimer meme which has pretty much been a phenom Worldwide. Does it mean entire world is insulting victims of atom bomb ? I really hope it's just a fringe group that's considering the above tweet from Barbie account as insult to atom bomb victims

 

And the posters are fan art, right?

Edited July 30, 2023 by kayumanggi