Weekend Thread 7/28-7/30 - Barbenheimer Week 2; Barbie 93M/Oppy 46.2M - Haunted Mansion & Talk to Me OW; Mansion 24.2M, Talk 10M

[Bob Train]

6 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

So why didn't all the other movies released at the same time as either Gone or Ten replicate their admissions if people were solely there for A/C. Other studio films were releasing then...

Because there aren't enough theaters in the world for every single movie released to get GWTW or TC levels of admits if that's what you are asking, and few were promoted extensively and budgeted big like those two films. Ten Commandments was the most expensive film ever released at the time.

Edited July 31, 2023 by Bob Train

[upriser7]

5 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Despite losing alot of screens it had a smaller drop than every other film in the Top 10, with the exception of SoF - which dropped 35% and added 126 theaters.

 

 

yeah...it lost 50% shows this weekend. Good hold all things considered

[redfirebird2008]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Do we have a good comp for Opp DOM? Obviously it dropped too heavy for Inception to be ideal, but maybe still the best fit? 

 

So far, the legs have been around 6% better than Dunkirk. If that continues, the movie ends up with a 3.9 multiplier and $320M domestic. But Oppy is not really tracking very well on a daily percentage basis with Dunkirk. The two of them are all over the map with each other, but Oppy has managed to come out ahead so far in the legs department. Stronger weekdays, stronger 2nd weekend hold as well for Oppy even though the daily percentages have been weird as shit between those movies.

 

From opening Saturday to last Thursday, Oppy's daily percentages were tracking very similar (eerily similar) to Inception's daily percentages. Inception managed to pull away on the 2nd weekend. Oppy legs are now running 7.5% behind Inception. If that continues, it would lead to a 4.3 multiplier and $355M domestic. 

 

On the more conservative end of things, I would just use TDK and TDKR to get an idea of the worst case scenario for Oppy. Based on how the legs are running compared to TDKR so far, I would say the worst case is around $275M domestic. If it performs more like TDK instead of TDKR the rest of the way, it lands very close to $300M. Hopefully it can perform more like Dunkirk, which would secure a final number above $300M. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Because there aren't enough theaters in the world for every single movie released to get GWTW or TC levels of admits if that's what you are asking, and few were promoted extensively and budgeted big like those two films. Ten Commandments was the most expensive film ever released at the time.

Weren't Titanic and Avatar each the "most expensive film ever released at the time"? Isn't Avatar 2 that now as well?

[Bob Train]

3 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Weren't Titanic and Avatar each the "most expensive film ever released at the time"? Isn't Avatar 2 that now as well?

Yes, and that's why those box office runs are so impressive, because they were released at a time where audiences had a lot more reasons to stay home than in the 30s, air conditioning and such is no longer a factor, but thanks to best ever WOM both movies shattered pretty much every record, capturing lightning in a bottle twice essentially.

[Jonwo]

4 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Weren't Titanic and Avatar each the "most expensive film ever released at the time"? Isn't Avatar 2 that now as well?

Avatar was $237m IIRC Titanic was super expensive at $200m in 1997.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

 

[Bob Train]

Nun 2 will be the next live-action movie to break 100m DOM, never underestimate the urge horror fans have to see a mid movie.

Edited July 31, 2023 by Bob Train

[ringedmortality]

7 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Nun 2 will be the next live-action movie to break 100m DOM, never underestimate the urge horror fans have to see a mid movie.

 

what about Equalizer

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, ringedmortality said:

 

what about Equalizer

Possible but I feel like that franchise has sailed. I’d estimate 60-80.

[MovieMan89]

27 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

So far, the legs have been around 6% better than Dunkirk. If that continues, the movie ends up with a 3.9 multiplier and $320M domestic. But Oppy is not really tracking very well on a daily percentage basis with Dunkirk. The two of them are all over the map with each other, but Oppy has managed to come out ahead so far in the legs department. Stronger weekdays, stronger 2nd weekend hold as well for Oppy even though the daily percentages have been weird as shit between those movies.

 

From opening Saturday to last Thursday, Oppy's daily percentages were tracking very similar (eerily similar) to Inception's daily percentages. Inception managed to pull away on the 2nd weekend. Oppy legs are now running 7.5% behind Inception. If that continues, it would lead to a 4.3 multiplier and $355M domestic. 

 

On the more conservative end of things, I would just use TDK and TDKR to get an idea of the worst case scenario for Oppy. Based on how the legs are running compared to TDKR so far, I would say the worst case is around $275M domestic. If it performs more like TDK instead of TDKR the rest of the way, it lands very close to $300M. Hopefully it can perform more like Dunkirk, which would secure a final number above $300M. 

355 would be crazy. It would almost beat Spidey and GotG even DOM besides WW

[Dephira]

I feel like Gone With The Wind, Ten Commandments, Sound of Music, Jaws, Titanic are all box office behemoths in their own rights. You will never approach any level of objectivity when comparing box office in such different eras. Inflation isn't even 1/10 of it, with all the other factors like home entertainment options, changes in culture, etc. Gone With The Wind achieved that while competing with other movies from its era, it seems silly to belittle that. Any movie that manages to be the #1 WW grosser was obviously a big box office phenomenon and deserves to be named with the #1 grossers 

[MovieMan89]

Bouncing back to Barbie, I am surprised there’s not much of any hoopla over how it’s doing this without being an IMAX or 3D film on top of it. When is the last juggernaut blockbuster where that was the case? Iron Man 1? And yeah it has PLF, but that’s not the same thing as 3D and IMAX inflation. 

[dudalb]

1 hour ago, Killimano3 said:

 

I mean those movies WERE from a different time. When a film came out it would be in theater for sometimes years and people would see it slowly, and often numerous times. You also didn't know if you would EVER have the chance to see it again once it left theaters.

Wrong. You would know that eventually it would show up on network TV.

[MovieMan89]

Did Jumanji WTTJ get 3D or IMAX? 

[Marathon]

Haunted Mansion is a fascinatingly huge flop for Disney. Disney in general have had a pretty crazy up-and-down (mostly down) year at the box office. Ant 3 flopped, GotG 3 was a success, Elemental should break even, Indy is a mega-bomb, and Haunted Mansion is a massive flop.

[dudalb]

33 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Avatar was $237m IIRC Titanic was super expensive at $200m in 1997.

And, of course, these figures are meaningless in comparaion if you don't figure in inflation.

Figure in inflation, and the 1963 Cleopatra is  the most expensive Hollywood movie ever made. It cost 42 million in 1963....which would be well over 400 Million in today's money.

I say Hollywood because many fell the 1966 Russian version of War and Peace was the most expensive. The Soviet gpvernment saw it as a huge prestige project, and the filmakers had what every filmmaker dreams of and never has...a virutally unlimited budget.

[baumer]

1 hour ago, Jonwo said:

Sound of Freedom doing $200m OS is very unlikely IMO I know this film has its stans but let's be realistic, even $100m would be an achievement OS 

No one thought sound of freedom would do 30 million let alone 150 million which is where it's at now. I have no idea what it's going to make overseas. I do know there's a lot of interest in the film and now it has free marketing because of what it's done in the North American region. So I don't think 200  is out of reach.

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, Marathon said:

Haunted Mansion is a fascinatingly huge flop for Disney. Disney in general have had a pretty crazy up-and-down (mostly down) year at the box office. Ant 3 flopped, GotG 3 was a success, Elemental should break even, Indy is a mega-bomb, and Haunted Mansion is a massive flop.

Even that’s a very optimistic way to see it. AM3 was nearly a 30+ film franchise low, Elemental is not breaking even from box office that’s for sure, Indy joins their John Carter/Mars Needs Moms/Lone Ranger special Disney only club of biggest money losers ever, and yeah THM massive flop too. GotG3 saved by the WOM, so even that could have been disastrous for them. TLM only saved by DOM, so once again, could have been a disaster for them. An absolutely horrific year for them really. No one would have thought this was remotely possible pre pandemic. 

[eeetooki]

37 minutes ago, XXR Dar-Benn said:

 

 

 

Wait what. He's like the best part of Euphoria