Weekend Thread | Estimates - Barbie $53M (hit a billion!), Meg2 $30M, Oppy $28.7, TMNT - $27.95M (5-day $43M), HauntedMansion $8.97M

[kayumanggi]

 

 

[Austin]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

if thats an 8/10 shrek2 must be a 15/10 or something

Naw, it hovers between a 9/10 and 10/10 and Shrek 1 is also an 8/10. The third is 1/10 because it does not exist.

Edited August 6, 2023 by Austin

[Claire of Themyscira]

On 8/4/2023 at 6:53 PM, eeetooki said:

As someone who was a full time K-pop fan for five years in Korea, it's always funny to see your comments on a box office theory forum. My two worlds colliding (sort of).

Omg!!! That's so cool. ❤️

 

It's true, it's true. I used to be many of these bitches' world.

 

#JK I know you meant the box office and K-Pop, haha. I had many brushes with it throughout my life, but I connected with it during winter of 2020.

 

TWICE is my ultimate group. These bitches (the forum) needa get with it and recognize great music.

[emoviefan]

10 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

 Wow Disney having one of the best awful years ever.  Of course a lot that is Avatar carry over and Guardians 3 but LM is just shy of 300. Quantamania over 200 and Indy still both over 150. The profits may not be great or even close to great but still. 

[emoviefan]

Just now, emoviefan said:

 Wow Disney having one of the best awful years ever.  Of course a lot that is Avatar carry over and Guardians 3 but LM is just shy of 300. Quantamania over 200 and Indy still both over 150. The profits may not be great or even close to great but still. 

Left out Elemental on the over 150. 

[Incarnadine]

59 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Disney gets around 25% of the  profits from Spidey films as per now.

Before the current renegotiated agreement they were getting 5%

So, is that net profits? We all know how creative Hollywood accounting is when it comes to paying out people who are supposed to get a % of the net profits.

Going by their accounting there has never been a movie that made a profit.😛

 

I still remember the Forrest Gump lawsuit. The author was owed 3% of the net profits, the movie had a budget of $55M and did $678M WW and Paramount was claiming the movie was still over $60M in the red.😄

[Mr Roark]

Hopefully Nolan will kick out Gunn from the third spot globally at this point.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

O/U $2.4B WW for Barbenheimer? 

[MovieMan89]

35 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

 Wow Disney having one of the best awful years ever.  Of course a lot that is Avatar carry over and Guardians 3 but LM is just shy of 300. Quantamania over 200 and Indy still both over 150. The profits may not be great or even close to great but still. 

If you count A2 as a 2022 release though, their 2023 slate is pretty dismal by their standards. They would be right on the Sony/Paramount bottom tier from that perspective. 

[MovieMan89]

Just noticed the horrific plunge for Elemental, holy wow. Yeah, no way you can tell me no direct comp before THM and now TMNT wasn’t majorly helping that movie. And I’d say any chance of box office profitability is officially dead with a DOM haul of only 155 or so. 
 

Indy also pretty much done with after this weekend. TLM 300 chances are probably impossible even if they went for a major Labor Day re-expansion. Which I don’t even think they will since Disney hasn’t been doing re-expansions lately. Still shocked A2 didn’t get one. 

Edited August 6, 2023 by MovieMan89

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

6 minutes ago, XXR Dar-Benn said:

O/U $2.4B WW for Barbenheimer? 

Barbie's WW week splits have looked like this

1 / 356.3M / - / -

2 / 780.7M / +424.4M / -

3 / 1030M (est.) / +249.3M / -41.3%

 

41.3% drops => $1384.3M final

 

For Oppenheimer

1 / 174.2M / - / -

2 / 400.4M / +226.2M / -

3 / 552.9M (est.)/ +152.5M / -32.6%

 

32.6% drops => $868.2M final

Combined = $2252.5M

 

Of course this is just assuming they both drop like this week. I don't see a reason why Barbie would deviate much from this trajectory apart from the upcoming Japan release maybe boosting it a bit, but the loss of school weekdays in several territories (and domestically soon too) will hurt it so if anything its average drops from here on out may be bigger. Oppenheimer still has Korea/China/Possibly Japan to come and is more of a weekend movie + R rating so will be less affected by the end of the school holidays. On the other hand it will lose IMAX in a couple weeks, weighing it up I think it can make a push for 900M but I don't think the two together will have enough juice to get to 2.4B, they probably top out at TWOW (2.32B).

[Eric Prime]

20 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Just noticed the horrific plunge for Elemental, holy wow. Yeah, no way you can tell me no direct comp before THM and now TMNT wasn’t majorly helping that movie. And I’d say any chance of box office profitability is officially dead with a DOM haul of only 155 or so. 

[cannastop]

22 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Just noticed the horrific plunge for Elemental, holy wow. Yeah, no way you can tell me no direct comp before THM and now TMNT wasn’t majorly helping that movie. And I’d say any chance of box office profitability is officially dead with a DOM haul of only 155 or so. 

yeah you're right all movies can make 5x from their OW

[wildphantom]

3 hours ago, emoviefan said:

It blows my mind how many people are seeing this multiple times in a such a short span of time.  It's in my Top 5 movies of the year but probably going to wait at least a few weeks or a month or so for another viewing. This does not scream run back and see it over again and again. barbie, even though I have not seen it, makes sense 114 minutes and a easy sit. 

I saw Barbie again last week, after seeing both films back to back on opening day (July 21)

 

So it’s been nearly three weeks, but I had to go back and see it whilst it’s still in IMAX and there’s nothing like seeing it with a packed house.  I’m not planning on going again, but if a friend asked me I wouldn’t say no. 

[wildphantom]

Barbie and Oppenheimer aren’t spectacle movies? Wait, what?

 

[Eric Prime]

Just now, wildphantom said:

Barbie and Oppenheimer aren’t spectacle movies? Wait, what?

 

You're a spectacle movie.

[MovieMan89]

11 minutes ago, cannastop said:

yeah you're right all movies can make 5x from their OW

Any movie with a brand name like

Pixar opening so low should be able to if WOM is decent tbh. Even the huge flop that was Good Dinosaur managed to get to 125 DOM total with way more comp (TFA anyone?) and poor reception bc there has to be a floor to how low the Pixar brand can go (I would say that was the floor).
 

People liked it, not at all convinced it got top tier Pixar love. The fact that critics were just ok on it says it all since there’s no brand that will inspire critics to gush as much as Pixar will. But that’s the last I’m saying on it. 

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Any movie with a brand name like

Pixar opening so low should be able to if WOM is decent tbh. Even the huge flop that was Good Dinosaur managed to get to 125 DOM total with way more comp (TFA anyone?) and poor reception bc there has to be a floor to how low the Pixar brand can go (I would say that was the floor).
 

People liked it, not at all convinced it got top tier Pixar love. The fact that critics were just ok on it says it all since there’s no brand that will inspire critics to gush as much as Pixar will. But that’s the last I’m saying on it. 

not saying it is necessarily top tier Pixar but the multiplier is like 1 out of 500 movies. 

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, cannastop said:

not saying it is necessarily top tier Pixar but the multiplier is like 1 out of 500 movies. 

The opening is also pretty unprecedented for a major Hollywood brand/franchise in the modern era (no covid movies). You can’t just ignore that. Literally the only other example I can think of that’s comparable in an OW low is Shazam 2 from this year, but DCEU really hasn’t been a prestigious brand or franchise at the box office for years. So that’s not a good comp either. And obviously the nature of being a live action superhero sequel is a much bigger strike against any kind of multi, plus we know WOM sucked there. 

Edited August 6, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Eric Prime]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The opening is also pretty unprecedented for a major Hollywood brand/franchise in the modern era (no covid movies). You can’t just ignore that. Literally the only other example I can think of that’s comparable in an OW low is Shazam 2 from this year, but DCEU really hasn’t been a prestigious brand or franchise at the box office for years. So that’s not a good comp either. And obviously the nature of being a live action superhero sequel is a much bigger strike against any kind of multi, plus we know WOM sucked there. 

I thought your last post was the last you would say on this.