Taylor Swift || The Eras Tour Concert Film - October 13, 2023 | Comes to Disney+ w/ 5 bonus songs

[SpiderByte]

9 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

can we stop the set up?. This movie concert has made 55M pre sales. It's cominf for probably 120-130M first weekend. 

An incredible result will make box office history for its genre and for the way has been distributed and promoted. 

Now seems opening with these incredible numbers will be kinda disappointing cause people are comparing it to End Game and Avatar. Please 😅

 

I'm here for even a bigger weeend maybe. Like 150M - 160M. But these predictions about the legs make not sense.

Yep. An overperforming concert movie is still a concert movie, which is a kind of novelty that legs don't lend themselves to

[Bob Train]

$300m OW is probably not possible. No movie has ever hit $300m FSS. The only one that got close is Endgame. Only 3 movies have done over $200m. Endgame had an extra day of shows and more showings.

[SpiderByte]

Wait the 300 OW guesses were for DOM? Not WW?

[vale9001]

37 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Wait the 300 OW guesses were for DOM? Not WW?

 

yes 😃

 

it's released only in the Us- Canada (and mexico). At least for now. 

Edited September 15, 2023 by vale9001

[HummingLemon]

@Relevation

 

Taylor Swift $300M OW

 

Let's fucking do this.

Edited September 15, 2023 by HummingLemon

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

@Relevation

 

Taylor Swift $300M OW. Let's fucking do this.

I’ll get you and Relevation 6 months of premium each if this opens to $300M.

[keysersoze123]

I definitely thing biggest single day of BO(minus previews) is in play for its opening saturday. That said I dont see how the math works for 300m OW !!! 70/120/110m in theory but that aint happening for sure. 

[HummingLemon]

3 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

I’ll get you and Relevation 6 months of premium each if this opens to $300M.

Sure. He's probably wrong to be honest but if he's correct he gets the ultimate bragging points.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

I definitely thing biggest single day of BO(minus previews) is in play for its opening saturday. That said I dont see how the math works for 300m OW !!! 70/120/110m in theory but that aint happening for sure. 

You really think Saturday can get to $110M+? Right now I’m thinking something like 50-75-55.

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

Wait the 300 OW guesses were for DOM? Not WW?

 

The ATP of these tickets is *REALLY* high, FWIW.

 

(NOTE: Not on the $300m train, but am looking at the $200m train with some interest)

 

===

 

Like, take this analysis from @M37:

 

18 hours ago, M37 said:

Looking at Saturday and Sunday for Eras, again using Barbenheimer a guide

 

Saturday

On Sat, BH sold ~1.16M tickets at MTC1, though with a somewhat higher show and seat count. On the higher end, Eras could be looking at 1M+ tickets just for this chain when dust (glitter?) settles, and with a typical market share and much higher ATP, perhaps approaching Endgame's record Saturday of $109.26M

 

To put it another way, take the $74M combined gross for Barbeheimer, add a 50% adjustment for ATP - especially with no matinee pricing - and you get to $111M

 

Sunday

The Barbenheimer Sunday, as capacity limitations and WOM pushed up demand, posted a combined -10% Sunday gross, and only -7% in raw ticket sales.  However, this isn't July, and in the Fall, its difficult to post a sub-30% drop for Sunday, and really nothing goes under 25% without a holiday. But here again, the flat pricing will help, and a high end result of of -25% ticket sales still likely keeps the gross at -20% or better range

 

Put it all together, and IMO looking at an IM (from Friday) in approximately the 4-5x range, and using a working $40-$50M Friday estimate, a $160-$250M OW. That's a fairly wide range, so feel free to trim down on either on both ends on preference, but difficult for me to project outside of that range given the data in hand

 

 

Thing is, the ATP of these tickets is the true wild card. A 50% jump on ATP versus other films for Sat and Sun is not unreasonable at all.  Might even be an underestimate thanks to LITERALLY no matinee/early bird pricing.

 

Even Friday Night is impacted when trying to compare to previews due to lack of matinee showings that have crept into Thr Previews.

 

If it wasn't for ATP, we'd be having a much different conversation, though still being amazed at the raw level of sales.

Edited September 15, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Now the danger on overpredicting this film when looking at current/already-booked pre-sales is that it is an open question about how much the GA is gonna care about a concert movie.  But that's complicated with the sheer size of the Taylor Swift fan base.  But that's complicated by how many Swifties actually want to plop $20 bucks a ticket (or more for PLFs) to see a concert movie.  

 

All of the above is to say that this is uncharted waters and any sort of sweeping statements have the chance of looking really silly when all is said and done.

Edited September 15, 2023 by Porthos

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Now the danger on overpredicting this film when looking at current/already-booked pre-sales is that it is an open question about how much the GA is gonna care about a concert movie.  But that's complicated with the sheer size of the Taylor Swift fan base.  But that's compounded by how many Swifties actually want to plop $20 bucks a ticket to see a concert movie.  

 

All of the above is to say that this is uncharted waters and any sort of sweeping statements have the chance of looking really silly when all is said and done.

^^^ This.

 

I think too many people are treating this like a really PS heavy franchise film but in reality it’s something different. It wouldn’t surprise me if 60-70% of OW was made during presales. By comparison, MOM was about 35%, NWH about 45% and even Endgame was only right at 50%.

[M37]

50 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

^^^ This.

 

I think too many people are treating this like a really PS heavy franchise film but in reality it’s something different. It wouldn’t surprise me if 60-70% of OW was made during presales. By comparison, MOM was about 35%, NWH about 45% and even Endgame was only right at 50%.

Do absolutely agree that ERAS is something different (which is why I've said not one word about pace or comps beyond limited showings, only evaluating potential for total), but what are you defining as presales in this context? Total sold by T-1 Thursday?

 

I ask because even if ERAS was already at the 60-70% mark of total final sales for MTC1 (and it very well might be!), Keyser's last update was ~$25.5M for the 3 days, so that would be ~$35-$40M total, and even if MTC1 overindexes (and I think it will...), still puts the OW floor at around $120M

 

I won't be surprised - in fact kind of expect at this point - to hit $100M+ in total presales by opening day, and very modest growth from there, in part because there just won't be a whole lot of room for additional sales, especially in the prime showtimes

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

9 minutes ago, M37 said:

Do absolutely agree that ERAS is something different (which is why I've said not one word about pace or comps beyond limited showings, only evaluating potential for total), but what are you defining as presales in this context? Total sold by T-1 Thursday?

 

I ask because even if ERAS was already at the 60-70% mark of total final sales for MTC1 (and it very well might be!), Keyser's last update was ~$25.5M for the 3 days, so that would be ~$35-$40M total, and even if MTC1 overindexes (and I think it will...), still puts the OW floor at around $120M

 

I won't be surprised - in fact kind of expect at this point - to hit $100M+ in total presales by opening day, and very modest growth from there, in part because there just won't be a whole lot of room for additional sales, especially in the prime showtimes

Yea I believe they count presales as everything before OD but whatever the context Deadline is using (I haven’t looked into it or given it an overt amount of consideration.)

 

I’m on the OW between Barbie and Black Panther train, but unlike a lot of films with discernible patterns and franchise context we are flying fairly blind for a while. I’m rooting for all the big numbers being thrown around though, especially Sat > Endgame Sat.

[M37]

20 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

I could have sworn American Sniper was 100+...huh.

Honestly, I did too (it sure felt like a $100M opener🤕). But to be fair, the demand was absolutely there for a 3-digit 3-day OW, just not anywhere close to anticipated to properly book showtimes, unable to adjust enough on the fly. Hence the $65M second wide weekend as demand was pushed forward

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/box-office-preview-american-sniper-2-763586/

Quote

American Sniper, starring Bradley Cooper as the late Navy SEAL Chris Kyle, is expected to earn $45 million to $47 million over the four-day weekend for Warner Bros., although more bullish estimates have the movie clearing $50 million, meaning it has a shot of scoring the biggest opening ever for the month of January. Warners made the film with Village Roadshow.

Like if TGM has been expected to do $50M OW, before presales indicated that was absolutely too low and show allocations were adjusted to match

[HummingLemon]

Taylor's gonna have a better sat than Endgame only because of a $20 ATP

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

21 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:

Taylor's gonna have a better sat than Endgame only because of a $20 ATP

Well yea, of course lol

 

I don’t think anyone believes it would be close otherwise (if it’s even that close with the high ATP).

[Bob Train]

Taylor could have totally made tickets cost $30, which is what the BTS concert tickets costed, and the opening would have been 20-30% higher. I'm sure most Swifites would have been willing to dish out an extra $10. I totally get why she made the price references to her album titles though.

[Relevation]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I definitely thing biggest single day of BO(minus previews) is in play for its opening saturday. That said I dont see how the math works for 300m OW !!! 70/120/110m in theory but that aint happening for sure. 

I do think that math outcome is still possible given the huge ATP increase but if I’m being completely honest, my math for a $300M OW was overestimating it a tad. Like I baked a 65/120/115 outcome when I think my estimate for Sunday is just too high and too narrow of a drop from Saturday (which is also probably a tad high). If I ran my math now I’d probably give it like $65M Fri / $110M Sat / $90M Sun for a $265M OW which I think is more reasonable given I may have overestimated how many showtimes this is getting per theater as @jeffthehat pointed out.

[JustLurking]

8 hours ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

^^^ This.

 

I think too many people are treating this like a really PS heavy franchise film but in reality it’s something different. It wouldn’t surprise me if 60-70% of OW was made during presales. By comparison, MOM was about 35%, NWH about 45% and even Endgame was only right at 50%.

I mean when you look at even the MCU comps the swift film consistently loses ground even there so that the frontloading will be off the charts is already pretty clear if you're asking me. And even if you factor in that there aren't that many seats left, pace is weak even on saturday where that's not the case.

 

So yeah, it certainly continues to look like an omega-frontloaded event to me. Even with the huge ATP I don't think it will have enough to approach endgame's sat and I definitely don't see the math for an endgame OW.