9/29-10/1 Weekend Thread

[DAJK]

I love everyone in here, but the amount of doom and gloom taking place is hilariously stupid. Do what you need to do for likes and reactions, but my god it's a horror movie 10 years past its prime and a tough-sell original sci-fi that was only really going to play to nerds like us anyways. "Theaters need to close their doors/this is the end of Hollywood" get that stuff out of here.

[Cmasterclay]

I tend to be doom and gloom because it is something I generally believe, but I will say the Creator which looked kind of boring and the tenth entrry in the Saw franchise aren't the siren song for it being true. But the point is you can only make these excuses so many weekends. How many weekends have we done this the past two full years now? Any weekend in a vacuum you can rationalize away for sure, just like this one. But when 2/3rds of the weekends a year are rationalized away, then it starts to add up to what we call a "pattern." That's the final thing I'll say on it.

[Jonwo]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I love everyone in here, but the amount of doom and gloom taking place is hilariously stupid. Do what you need to do for likes and reactions, but my god it's a horror movie 10 years past its prime and a tough-sell original sci-fi that was only really going to play to nerds like us anyways. "Theaters need to close their doors/this is the end of Hollywood" get that stuff out of here.

I honestly think some on here wouldn't be happy unless Hollywood collapses and/or cinemas shut down which would kind of defeat the purpose of this place.

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I honestly think some on here wouldn't be happy unless Hollywood collapses and/or cinemas shut down which would kind of defeat the purpose of this place.

Frankly the world feels shitty and collapsing in alot of ways and doomposting a little on a box office forum or Twitter or whatever is one of the more healthy and cathartic ways I can imagine coping with this bullshit tbh. Personally I find the la la la positivity just as annoying but I guess it's a matter of personal mental state. I also said Joe Biden is probably going to lose by 10 points next year. I obviously don't fully believe that but sometimes it feels good to get get the negative thoughts out and talk about them ya know?

Edited September 29, 2023 by Cmasterclay

[Cmasterclay]

1 hour ago, CoolioD1 said:

i must have lost brain cells recently because for some reason when i opened the thread I was not expecting to get the exact same "it's the end of cinema" posts from the exact same people for this one. 

I am disappointed to have let Coolio down. I just want a win, ya know? It'd just be nice to log on and see a movie suprise me and break out, or a candidate I want to win up in the polls, or the girl who just left me back in my life, or the Vikings not 0-3. It'd just be positive to log on my ole computer and see some good news for once. BOT stands for Box Office Therapy, apparrently. I will be better.

 

October looks good. I think, constructively, that it would be better to distribute the hits in a more equitable year throughout the year so that 6 out of 7 weeks aren't total garbage like twice a year.

Edited September 29, 2023 by Cmasterclay

[eman92]

I'm guessing the weather in NYC is going to affect this weeks Box Office. Apparently Alamo Drafthouse has already closed all their NYC locations. It's not supposed to stop raining I think until tomorrow at some point

[ChipDerby]

21 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I tend to be doom and gloom because it is something I generally believe, but I will say the Creator which looked kind of boring and the tenth entrry in the Saw franchise aren't the siren song for it being true. But the point is you can only make these excuses so many weekends. How many weekends have we done this the past two full years now? Any weekend in a vacuum you can rationalize away for sure, just like this one. But when 2/3rds of the weekends a year are rationalized away, then it starts to add up to what we call a "pattern." That's the final thing I'll say on it.

 

Did you know in 2017 we had three weeks under $79 mil total? And that was right after the biggest year of all time (at the time)

[ChipDerby]

15 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I am disappointed to have let Coolio down. I just want a win, ya know? It'd just be nice to log on and see a movie suprise me and break out, or a candidate I want to win up in the polls, or the girl who just left me back in my life, or the Vikings not 0-3. It'd just be positive to log on my ole computer and see some good news for once. BOT stands for Box Office Therapy, apparrently. I will be better.

 

October looks good. I think, constructively, that it would be better to distribute the hits in a more equitable year throughout the year so that 6 out of 7 weeks aren't total garbage like twice a year.

 

You ok bud? My DMs are open if you need to talk!

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

Hollywood needs to reinvent itself. Everything is a 20-50 year old franchise that's already been milked to death at this point. It doesn't help that theatrical hasn't evolved at all since I was a kid. The experience has just gotten worse with the advent of cell phones too.

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

The only things that will survive are the things that people can't get at home (yet) - concerts, escape rooms, axe throwing, etc.

I’m sorry but this made me laugh out loud. 
 

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, ChipDerby said:

 

You ok bud? My DMs are open if you need to talk!

Thanks bud! I'm good. I shouldn't be saying all this shit in a public forum, especially when I got a good life and career in politics and shit. I just miss the days when I was having a bad week and I'd log on and it turned out that the Hangover or some shit stunned everyone and opened to something amazing. I appreciate the good work of our trackers very much, but now it's like, most things aren't gonna have that breakout, and we have the data to prove it! So pardon my negativity. It's just been a weird week.

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Thanks bud! I'm good. I shouldn't be saying all this shit in a public forum, especially when I got a good life and career in politics and shit. I just miss the days when I was having a bad week and I'd log on and it turned out that the Hangover or some shit stunned everyone and opened to something amazing. I appreciate the good work of our trackers very much, but now it's like, most things aren't gonna have that breakout, and we have the data to prove it! So pardon my negativity. It's just been a weird week.

You're not wrong. Hollywood can't rely on the seasonal phenomenon like Barbenheimer or The Eras Tour. They need all different types of movies to remain above water at the box office.

[Bob Train]

2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I absolutely may have been reactionary on the timeline, but whether it is 2024 or 2034, people are becoming more and more conditioned each and every year not to watch movies in theaters. Sure, Indy could make 170 this year. By 2030, it ain't making 70.

What do you mean by this? Theatrical windows have been and are continuing to get longer since the pandemic. Encanto was rushed to streaming after only 30 days, Elemental had an approximately 100-day window. Multiverse of Madness was released on streaming after about 45 days, Guardians 3 after 90 days.

 

On the WB side, The Batman was released on streaming 40 days after release, whereas even horrendous gigabomb The Flash with laughably bad legs got over 70 days.

Edited September 29, 2023 by Bob Train

[Ozymandias]

1 hour ago, reddevil19 said:

The Creator looks like ChatGPT chewed up and spat out a blend of every single sci-fi movie of the last 4 decades. It also stars absolutely no one of note, is directed by no one of note and it seems like the big selling point was "look how cheap we made this movie!". How can that possibly go wrong when people that only go out to the cinema for big events, crazy WOM phenoms and so on hear about it and think "oh, so it's some cheapo crap"? Reinforce that with middling reviews (to answer this point from earlier in the thread - you DO need that shiny 90%+ certified for an original to stand out) and The Creator never had a chance. It has no role to play in conversations about the future of cinemas. It's a non-entity, always was. Its floppage has no bearing on anything. 

 

Now, when The Marvels underperforms... THAT's when I'm getting my popcorn out.

 

[Eric Loves Rey]

Since I know I'm being talked about here as one of the doom and gloomers--yes, it's perhaps overzealous to say that Saw/Creator opening below expectations isn't worth being overly negative. Especially when, frankly, things weren't even looking that great until a week prior. And yeah, Clay is being very hyperbolic with the whole "the end of movie theaters and society as we know it". Like that's not happening. But also there's just not much else to get excited about since theaters have reopened that doesn't make me very happy for the future of box office. And this weekend, despite likely always setting up for failure, doesn't help my emotions and feelings at all.

 

We only get 2-3 huge breakouts each year, every other movie that comes out feels like they are bombing left and right, even if it's more inflated budgets, huge audience demographics have basically abandoned theatrical, and whole entire genres are on the verge of being extinct. It's been about two years since theaters have reopened, and we are still dealing with 65% of movies failing to break even. We still have comedy as a dead art form. We still have specialties and indies failing to leave any impression minus an EEAAO here or there. We still have the issue where the only major breakouts for movies aimed at older audiences consist of like...3 of them. Oppenheimer doesn't even count since it was mainly young people like me going to it. If things haven't changed much since 2021, I don't think it's going to change now. Even if you don't like the constant pessimism from me or Clay or CJohn, I think it's still a stretch to say everything is just fine and dandy or that things will get better.

 

Plus for somebody like me, specialty releases and counterprogramming, the little guys, are my favorite things to look at box office wise. Blockbusters can have fun runs and I'm a big animation nerd, so I like seeing those leggy runs too. But those weird breakouts you didn't see coming or awards hopefuls legging out to 70M+ are the nice cherry on top and typically are the movies I gravitate towards the most. But at this rate, they're destined to be nothing more than Netflix/Amazon fodder that gets buried in the algorithm. And that leads to awful repercussions for the art form in general that we are already seeing. Even if it turns out to be a good movie, did you really want Barry Jenkins, the guy who worked on Moonlight, wasting his time on a prequel to the Lion King reboot nobody liked? Is this really something worth his time? Was this really a project you want him to focus years of his life on? Well it's a shame all these great directors and indie hopefuls are stuck or will soon be stuck as faceless cogs in the nostalgic toy commercial industrial complex.

 

So having yet another bad weekend on another line of bad weekends doesn't make me feel better, nor do I feel satisfied. And hey! Things could be rosier down the line. Maybe Flower Moon really does break out and become a Departed-level hit. Maybe Wish makes Zootopia numbers. Maybe the new Hunger Games revives the series. I'm definitely bullish on Wonka being a huge breakout success. That's a nostalgic toy commercial, yeah, but it's also great for musicals, which was on a comeback before COVID killed off interest for In the Heights and West Side Story. Would have loved to have seen them come out in a non-COVID timeline and be breakout hits like they deserve. And for all I know, 2024 could be an amazing year, especially with the strikes likely making things way better for the people who make the stuff we like.

 

But I'm sorry to say, as of now, I just can't find a good reason to be cheery or happy. And this kind of venting makes me way happier than trying to find a bright side that doesn't seem to be there. So frankly, if you guys don't like me or Clay or CJohn doing this, maybe it's best to just ignore our little pity parties. Just a thought. I dunno.

[Cmasterclay]

Erric said it well, but my days of negativity arre over. I love these boards and some of the posters annoyed by it are people I really respect. I'm still ready for the coming civil war after the 2024 election though!

[TomThomas]

The Creator needed a big star, like Washington Sr instead of Washington Jr.

[Bob Train]

2 hours ago, CJohn said:

This is good and actually true tbh.

 

What is the point of September in general? Just cancel the whole thing.

I mean, Equaliz3r, Nun 2, Saw X, and Paw Patrol will be successful movies, and September is up about 50% from last year. I blame Exp4ndables bombing for the back half of the month being very weak. 

[grey ghost]

No "Creator" or box office numbers in the title?

[grey ghost]

I never expected a big OW for The Creator.

 

Looked like it was made specifically for sci fi nerds. Felt kinda niche.