9/29-10/1 Weekend Thread

[ChipDerby]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

More after having the lowest box office of the entire year this week, and not really recovering much into the weekend...

 

Eh, pretty similar to last year at this same time. And we had a much, much, much healthier summer. We'll see how the 4th quarter goes

[CoolioD1]

i must have lost brain cells recently because for some reason when i opened the thread I was not expecting to get the exact same "it's the end of cinema" posts from the exact same people for this one. 

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

it is not uncommon for september to have "the lowest box office of the entire year."

Seriously. The occasional blockbuster aside (see: the It movies), September has always been a dump month.

[Jonwo]

31 minutes ago, Eric the Creator said:

Okay let’s not go that far. There have been a few theater closures here and there, but the big chains are still doing fine enough with the big events. And even bombs like Indy or M:I or Transformers still made 170M, which is still a good amount of revenue for theaters that don’t get impacted by these overinflated studio budgets. Theatrical might not be as big as it was before, but there’s not gonna be any epic collapse.

 

And coming from a fellow doomer and gloomer, that says a lot right there.

Honestly there is pessimism and then is there full blown negative fantasy. I'm not saying people can't be pessimistic but not when it veers into implausible territory like someone suggesting Hollywood will collapse because the strikes.

[TwoMisfits]

If you consider Nolan a brand, the only non-branded, non-franchise film in the top 10 DOM is Sound Of Freedom, which relied on a campaign where people didn't have to pay full price tickets for the 1st 2 weeks, so they could get the ball rolling on their movie.  And in the Top 20, you only add M3gan.

 

That's the concern.

 

And really, September has shown that eventually franchise strength even runs out...so you have lowest box offices of the year.  Taylor will save October, but one shots are hard to rely on.

[CoolioD1]

that's always the thing apparently. every hit is always the wrong kind of hit. every flop is the last of its kind. john carter flopped 11 years ago and every ambitious sci-fi that flopped between that and this has been the film that'll kill these sorts of ambitious sci-fi pictures.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

If you consider Nolan a brand, the only non-branded, non-franchise film in the top 10 DOM is Sound Of Freedom, which relied on a campaign where people didn't have to pay full price tickets for the 1st 2 weeks, so they could get the ball rolling on their movie.  And in the Top 20, you only add M3gan.

 

That's the concern.

 

And really, September has shown that eventually franchise strength even runs out...so you have lowest box offices of the year.  Taylor will save October, but one shots are hard to rely on.

October looks like a much better month. Taylor aside, Killers of the Flower Moon is already tracking for a solid opening (with room to grow over the next three weeks). And both Exorcist and Five Nights at Freddy's should take advantage of spooky season, even if the former won't be anywhere nearly as big as Halloween '18 was and the latter will likely be a one weekend wonder (the fact they chose to make it a hybrid release indicates they know it won't be around for long). And that's all before we arrive at a busy November.

[Jonwo]

TBH September tends to have low years and good years. Things like It, Shang-Chi etc are the exception and not the norm.

 

 

[Ezen Baklattan]

I do think the fact that actors can't promote their films, especially ones that don't sell themselves, is playing something of a role. (A nice little egg to the face of people who refuse to pay actors fairly, mind you)

 

That, and grosses are only 5% behind the TOTAL for 2022 with an entire quarter still to go. Even if I believed that reaching pre-pandemic levels of box office was possible, we'd still have a long way to go, but add me to the chorus that finds the doom and gloom premature, even if cinema becomes more event driven.

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

October looks like a much better month. Taylor aside, Killers of the Flower Moon is already tracking for a solid opening (with room to grow over the next three weeks). And both Exorcist and Five Nights at Freddy's should take advantage of spooky season, even if the former won't be anywhere nearly as big as Halloween '18 was and the latter will likely be a one weekend wonder (the fact they chose to make it a hybrid release indicates they know it won't be around for long). And that's all before we arrive at a busy November.

 

But...

Taylor - brand

Exorcist - franchise/brand

Five Nights at Freddy - brand

 

Only Killers of the Flower Moon is not a brand, and I've said I expect that to overindex at MTC 1/3, for the same reasons the Creator did.  Non-brand, non-franchise, and a tough sell at $20/ticket.

[Jonwo]

Just now, Ezen Baklattan said:

I do think the fact that actors can't promote their films, especially ones that don't sell themselves, is playing something of a role. (A nice little egg to the face of people who refuse to pay actors fairly, mind you)

 

That, and grosses are only 5% behind the TOTAL for 2022 with an entire quarter still to go. Even if I believed that reaching pre-pandemic levels of box office was possible, we'd still have a long way to go, but add me to the chorus that finds the doom and gloom premature, even if cinema becomes more event driven.

I don't think The Creator would have done much better even with promotion. 

[Ezen Baklattan]

9 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I don't think The Creator would have done much better even with promotion. 

I agree, but you've also got movies like Dumb Money, A Haunting in Venice, and Expen4bles which rely a lot more on star power. You don't get much more of that from the Creator, but I think a lot got impacted.

[TomThomas]

I don't understand doom and gloom over Saw X here, it's doing well, with good multi it should cross 20 mln, maybe even come close to 25 mln OW, just in line with predictions.

Edited September 29, 2023 by TomThomas

[reddevil19]

The Creator looks like ChatGPT chewed up and spat out a blend of every single sci-fi movie of the last 4 decades. It also stars absolutely no one of note, is directed by no one of note and it seems like the big selling point was "look how cheap we made this movie!". How can that possibly go wrong when people that only go out to the cinema for big events, crazy WOM phenoms and so on hear about it and think "oh, so it's some cheapo crap"? Reinforce that with middling reviews (to answer this point from earlier in the thread - you DO need that shiny 90%+ certified for an original to stand out) and The Creator never had a chance. It has no role to play in conversations about the future of cinemas. It's a non-entity, always was. Its floppage has no bearing on anything. 

 

Now, when The Marvels underperforms... THAT's when I'm getting my popcorn out.

[reddevil19]

13 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Only Killers of the Flower Moon is not a brand, and I've said I expect that to overindex at MTC 1/3, for the same reasons the Creator did.  Non-brand, non-franchise, and a tough sell at $20/ticket.

I think the Scorsese/Leo combo is enough of a brand. Not Nolan-level, but it's definitely a selling point. They have a solid track record.

[Borobudur]

People are underestimating the power of cast promoting a movie. To make people go for a movie, there are few stages to develop word-of-mouth.

Building awareness> nurturing interest > good quality > passionate response = Complete WOM chain.

 

For franchises, they have advantage at building the awareness and interest. Oftenly is the quality that make the WOM chain broken. But for an original movie like Creator, the chain isn't even starting properly because awareness level just isn't enough. You can't make people going for your movie if they don't even know you exist. 

 

 

 

[Maggie]

4 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

 

 

Now, when The Marvels underperforms... THAT's when I'm getting my popcorn out.

It will underperform, but what are the expectations? I feel like it needs to have solid reviews to make some noise. But imo the Marvel brand is fading away.

[Jonwo]

9 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

The Creator looks like ChatGPT chewed up and spat out a blend of every single sci-fi movie of the last 4 decades. It also stars absolutely no one of note, is directed by no one of note and it seems like the big selling point was "look how cheap we made this movie!". How can that possibly go wrong when people that only go out to the cinema for big events, crazy WOM phenoms and so on hear about it and think "oh, so it's some cheapo crap"? Reinforce that with middling reviews (to answer this point from earlier in the thread - you DO need that shiny 90%+ certified for an original to stand out) and The Creator never had a chance. It has no role to play in conversations about the future of cinemas. It's a non-entity, always was. Its floppage has no bearing on anything. 

 

Now, when The Marvels underperforms... THAT's when I'm getting my popcorn out.

I did laugh at the comments that Gareth Edwards made the movie so that when the AI overlords took over, he'd be spared.

Edited September 29, 2023 by Jonwo

[Jonwo]

8 minutes ago, TomThomas said:

I don't understand doom and gloom over Saw X here, it's doing well, with good multi it should cross 20 mln, maybe even come close to 25 mln OW, just in line with predictions.

Also the budget is $13m, it'll be super profitable for Lionsgate.

[reddevil19]

9 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I did laugh at the comments that Gareth Edwards made the movie so that when the AI overlords took over, he'd be spared.

He might be spared by AI, but Tony Gilroy's gonna get him eventually...