Christmas Weekend Thread | Xmas Day #s - Purple 18.1, Aqua 10.6, Wonka 10.3, Boys 5.7, Migration 5.4, Ferrari 2.9 | #BlackGirlMagic dominates the charts

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[toutvabien]

7 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

This, American Fiction and Zone of Interest all opening in the $30K PTA range.

 

Can't wait to watch this one, heard it's sad and horny and so am I.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[AniNate]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

In what possible way are you mathing to come to that conclusion?

 

Three day weekend divided by Friday? It's not complicated.

[Krissykins]

Boy and the Heron surely being overestimated, a -7% Christmas Eve drop? Nope. 
 

 

[M37]

7 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

Three day weekend divided by Friday? It's not complicated.

I see now, but the way it was worded made it seem like the 3-day was the denominator, not numerator 

[Starphanluke]

What a boring weekend. Let's hope for some fireworks tomorrow.

[dallas]

16 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

Not a terrible multiplier, I was seeing people predicting a 5-5.5 IM. 

[M37]

3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

The panic here is a bit overblown i think. It makes total sense that this day would be relatively weak for a Saturday, its the day before Christmas Eve, people will be going shopping for last-minute presents, they will be on their way to their familys etc.

 

Next week is where the big money will be made.

Agree with this assessment fwiw. A weaker Saturday here reads to me as the tide being pulled back a bit further than the 2017 comps, with a bigger Xmas and beyond wave (relatively speaking) to come crashing down in the upcoming week 

[Borobudur]

18 minutes ago, M37 said:

Agree with this assessment fwiw. A weaker Saturday here reads to me as the tide being pulled back a bit further than the 2017 comps, with a bigger Xmas and beyond wave (relatively speaking) to come crashing down in the upcoming week 

 2017 Xmas is a very high bar to clear. Beside SW8, many movies had 110%-160% range of jump, and that is without a big movie that open on 25 Dec with 20m. And that is without mentioning the holiday moviegoing habit that permanently weakened post-Covid. 

[JimmyB]

So, almost everything is coming in under Deadline's usual lowball Saturday weekend estimates.  

 

The weekend's box office will be around 94 million, Even if you remove The Last Jedi from the same weekend in 2017 the box office is still 11 million more at 105m, Always amazed by the massive decline in tickets sales.

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2017/12/22

 

[HummingLemon496]

$50M OS-China debut for Aquaman. 

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

So, how long should we wait before we can actually call "Wonka" a flop in the USA? Asking for a friend.

 

 

[belblazer]

$120.1M 4-day WW.

 

[Borobudur]

3 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

$50M OS-China debut for Aquaman. 

After the Marvels and now Aquaman, now we have a clear idea about what movie really leaving no cultural impact behind.

 

 

[dallas]

7 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

So, how long should we wait before we can actually call "Wonka" a flop in the USA? Asking for a friend.

 

 

It isn't a flop. 

[dallas]

4 minutes ago, belblazer said:

$120.1M 4-day WW.

 

Should be able to cross $300M with those numbers.

[M37]

10 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

 2017 Xmas is a very high bar to clear. Beside SW8, many movies had 110%-160% range of jump, and that is without a big movie that open on 25 Dec with 20m. And that is without mentioning the holiday moviegoing habit that permanently weakened post-Covid. 

Holiday patterns have changed, but that also includes the pre-Xmas period being (potentially) weaker, a more backloaded pattern overall

 

In 2017, the entire top 10 on Xmas Day was only 10% higher than the Saturday 12/23 before it. If you remove TLJ (which actually declined), it comes up to +25%.  Last year, Sunday Xmas top 10 was +48% over Friday 12/23, and Boxing Day (because Sun Xmas is usually weaker) was +61%. (Avatar 2 was only slightly better than the whole, not significantly pulling up the average). With that same Sun Xmas calendar configuration in 2016, it was +26% and +48% (removing the Fences expansion from the totals for like comparison)

 

So yeah, I think the Xmas day and beyond numbers - at least for the holdovers new and/or high grossing enough to be able to keep screens - are going to be higher than 2017 comps/ratios would suggest from the 3-day weekend and Saturday specifically. With so many Xmas day openers it will be difficult to compare directly, but that was the broader point I was getting at

[M37]

16 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

So, how long should we wait before we can actually call "Wonka" a flop in the USA? Asking for a friend.

 

 

As soon as you’re ready to declare John Wick 4 a domestic flop, because that’s approximately the same gross/budget ratio Wonka should leg out to (with Wonka winning handily overseas)