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Eric Atreides

Han and Eric's Doom and Gloom/Controversial Predictions of 2024

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inside-out-that-was-a-disaster.gif

 

That GIF? Couldn't have said it better myself.

 

2022 was already pretty rough for the industry and signaled the death of the box office as we used to know it. But there was at least the caveat, the benefit of the doubt that things were at least good enough for the tentpoles. That Hollywood could build on top of that momentum, and that the big movies would still make the numbers they always made. And I mean...they kind of did, since 2023 is still ahead of 2022 at the box office. But that doesn’t really mean much of anything. Because once again, 2023 was a disaster for Hollywood and shows once again that the peaks we saw only a couple years ago? The $11B+ numbers we consistently saw? They are never coming back. Ever.

 

Disney completely bellyflopped last year with one bomb after the other, audiences are still piss-scared to watch anything that isn’t a nostalgic toy commercial or a schlocky horror movie, and capitalist greed resulted in two of the biggest strikes in Hollywood history. And even then, people are sick of the current crop of nostalgic toy commercials, but can’t bring themselves to watch anything that isn’t in that group. So really, nothing appeals to anybody. Right-wing garbage like Sound of Freedom is potentially our future, as our world continues to fall into the evils of both nationalism and conservatism. Audiences who were always reliable have now deserted movie theaters forever. Kids only want to watch stuff on streaming now. Everything is priced to the max, so you’re paying an arm and a leg to see a movie that's probably going to suck. Movie theaters...are done. They’ll still exist, don't you worry, but their heyday? It's over. And things will only get worse as time goes on.

 

2024? It’s gonna be another rough one. The strikes delayed tons of potentially strong projects, audiences don't care for these modern prices, and, as I mentioned years ago, it turns out being reliant on the enduring success and popularity of one single genre/movie franchise wasn't a smart idea after all. Everything sucks, nothing will ever get better, it's all a mess. But I mean...Han and I do this every year, so I guess we’ll have to do this again. But, spoiler alert, this is going to be pretty doom and gloom. So if you don’t like BOT users for daring to say the truth, you may have to leave.

 

Let's do this.

 

dune-part-2.gif

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January 5

Night Swim: While Quorum awareness isn’t the greatest, only 36% chance of 10M when using horror comparables, I think it could comfortably reach double digits like most first weekend of January horror movies. Not much more than that however. It’s just not as fun a concept or as TikTok friendly as M3GAN, and the concept isn’t the greatest hook. But again, could be worse. And trust me, things will get worse. 13/35 (2.69x)

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January 12

The Beekeeper: Plane numbers I guess? Sure, why not? These cheesy action movies usually make these kinds of numbers. 10/30 (3x)

 

The Book of Clarence: Quorum metrics are in the toilet, and this seems like a movie ripe for controversy. Controversy that’s against a lot of the major audience sectors that still go to the movies. Don’t expect much from this. 6/18 (3x)

 

Mean Girls: I’m not sure why they are hiding the musical aspects of this. Because without that hook to bring people in, this just looks like a cheap direct-to-video remake of the original classic. However, I guess that doesn’t matter anymore. If anything, audiences would rather just have something that’s exactly the same as what they saw 20 years ago. 

 

With both Quorum and traditional tracking being strong, this has breakout potential, though maybe dinged a bit from false advertising. 35/115 (3.29x)

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February 2

Argylle: Even with the trailer playing before every movie, Quorum awareness is still nonexistent. And frankly, these kinds of action comedy movies need a Ryan Reynolds or Sandra Bullock or Brad Pitt-style movie star to help sell it. I like Sam Rockwell, but he just ain’t it. People may predict this as a wild card, but I know this is yet another dud for the year. Maybe this does better on Apple TV+. 7/20 (2.86x)

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February 16

Bob Marley: One Love: The minimal advertising and the lack of a platform release in 2022 to get Oscar noms tells you everything you need to know about this film’s quality. And I don’t think Bob Marley is all that popular these days to help bring in a lot of people just on brand value. This is going low, even for music biopics. 10/14/30

 

Madame Web: Superhero movies are dead, so Sony superhero movies are like...dead dead. And like...y'all saw the trailer. The only question is how low this could go. Let’s say.....30M? Sure, slightly less than half of Morbius. 15/18/30

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13 minutes ago, Eric Wonka said:

Lisa Frankenstein: Wow, a new Diablo Cody screenplay! Too bad it's not an NTC, so nobody will watch this. Oh well. 4/12 (3x)

People aren't nostalgic for Frankenstein? Huh?

 

11 minutes ago, Eric Wonka said:

And I don’t think Bob Marley is all that popular these days to help bring in a lot of people just on brand value

I take it you've never gone to a cannabis store haha

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What an upbeat way to begin Christmas morning lol.

 

Lisa Frankenstein is clearly a test to see if they can bring the Stranger Things/Wednesday crowd to the theater with its PG-13 rating (Jennifer's Body's dismal theatrical run back in the day was a lesson in what not to do for a teen-targeted project). I'm actually looking forward to it, Cody is usually one you can count on.

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Some predictions:

-Deadpool 3 is BvS 2.0 with slightly better reviews (maybe 55% instead of 20-something), and stays pretty flat from the last 2 (lets pencil in $360m/$750m)

-Dune 2 opens over $70m

-Joker 2 wins the year

-GxK and Gladiator 2 both open huge but drop like rocks - just don't trust the quality on either

-Wicked sweeps the full holiday window. They should honestly delay this to Christmas, everything else in that window sounds like a non-event 

-Praying Nosferatu is a hit... I just don't think it will be :( 

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49 minutes ago, Eric Wonka said:

February 2

Argylle: Even with the trailer playing before every movie, Quorum awareness is still nonexistent. And frankly, these kinds of action comedy movies need a Ryan Reynolds or Sandra Bullock or Brad Pitt-style movie star to help sell it. I like Sam Rockwell, but he just ain’t it. People may predict this as a wild card, but I know this is yet another dud for the year. Maybe this does better on Apple TV+. 7/20 (2.86x)

How much do you want to bet these numbers end up happening, but for Madame Web instead?

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Truly catastrophic scenario that would sum up the state of moviegoing circa the mid-2020s is if Dune 2 and Godzilla x Kong make less than their COVID-impacted, day-and-date predecessors. Which I certainly wouldn't rule out as a possibility in this climate, grim as that may be.

Edited by filmlover
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2 hours ago, Eric Wonka said:

I.S.S.: No clue what this is, but it’s not a nostalgic toy commercial, so nobody will show up. 2/4 (2x)

 

It's a space movie with Ariana Debose and Chris....somebody? The one from Birds of Prey.

There's a LOT of Space movies in 2024, this, something with Adam Sandler, Distant (allegedly).

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