Han and Eric's Doom and Gloom/Controversial Predictions of 2024

[interiorgatordecorator]

32 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

I agree that it is worrisome, hence why I'm skeptical about it. But something in Q1 has to break out unless we believe that cinemas will be completely deserted for 4 months, save for Dune (which won't be a mega hit anyway) and a couple more of decent releases.

Lisa frankenstein might have a break out chance too, but it has no star power and has nothing going for the male audience. At this point it's really hard to predict what will happen but I'm pretty sure that at least one of the smaller Q1 releases will crawl to 100 M, if not for anything else then just for the pure lack of competition.

 

mean girls is the only thing the ga even slightly familiar to the GA

inertia might get it there (100 m)

[M37]

21 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

No way all 3 hold this weekend - Apes or Furiosa will move, since they target the same audience.  Or they won't, and well, I'd start decreasing their numbers...

One should clearly go to the 5/10 weekend (probably Apes), grab those PLFs for 2 weeks, sandwiched between an action film that’s going to skew younger and towards women, and a family film 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

I’ve felt that it would benefit Furiosa to go to June 7th for a while now. I guess there’s that John Wick spin-off Ballerina but there hasn’t been much info on that and it’s most likely not gonna get a response as good as Furiosa.

 

24 minutes ago, M37 said:

One should clearly go to the 5/10 weekend (probably Apes), grab those PLFs for 2 weeks, sandwiched between an action film that’s going to skew younger and towards women, and a family film 

 

The only concern with that date is whether or not Fall Guy snatched PLFs for two weeks, and whether or not IF grabbed them for it’s opening week.

Edited December 29, 2023 by AMC Theaters Enjoyer

[MysteryMovieMogul]

1 hour ago, babz06 said:

No way it gets to 100m. It has no buzz or hype. 

And it looks actively terrible.

[JustLurking]

13 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

And it looks actively terrible.

Have to agree tbh...especially the way it's filmed, looks terrible, like a 2000s tv show...

Edited December 29, 2023 by JustLurking

[M37]

45 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

I’ve felt that it would benefit Furiosa to go to June 7th for a while now. I guess there’s that John Wick spin-off Ballerina but there hasn’t been much info on that and it’s most likely not gonna get a response as good as Furiosa.

 

 

The only concern with that date is whether or not Fall Guy snatched PLFs for two weeks, and whether or not IF grabbed them for it’s opening week.

Any film with a confirmed IMAX contract will show on their coming soon list - Furiosa has them for Memorial Day, nothing else for May (yet). IF probably takes some by default, but Apes would at least get some in weekend 2. Bad Boys 4 and Inside Out two likely take them all (in some form) on 6/14, but also have to balance that with being later into summer and getting those bigger weekdays 

[Eric the IF]

June 7

Ballerina: A Len Wiseman action movie in 2024 is basically destined for 24% on Rotten Tomatoes. Even the John Wick connections won’t save this inevitable hot mess. 12/30 (2.5x)

 

The Watchers: Hard to really say anything about a movie where little is known about it, from an unknown director to boot. It's actually M. Night Shyamalan's kid directing. So...I guess let's assume this movie will also be a divisive one? I dunno, I'm just doing a shot in the dark on this one. 15/40 (2.67x)

[Eric the IF]

June 14

Bad Boys 4: Bad Boys 3 surprised everybody with grossing 200M back when the world was sane and normal, and thankfully Adil and Bilall are back once again to deliver an exciting and fun crowdpleaser. Only real question mark is how much the slap damaged Will Smith’s reputation and popularity, but I think but I think most have moved on and just want a good time. Which this probably will be. 50/170 (3.4x)

 

Inside Out 2: The 2015 classic was already a hugely successful and iconic feature in the Pixar canon since day 1, and was one of the few Pixar movies that people actually wanted a sequel for. And sure enough, people are already excited judging by the crazy views on the teaser trailer, strong Quorum metrics, and it being a nostalgic toy commercial. With Disney putting out next to nothing in theaters, this is likely going to get tons of promo and hype up until release. All that's left is strong reviews, which...eh, even a Monsters University reception will probably be enough. So yeah, it should be a huge shot in the arm for the box office, though it will still be dinged by the Disney+ factor. But not that much. 140/455 (3.25x)

[Eric the IF]

June 21

The Bikeriders: Sadly, this isn't a nostalgic toy commercial, and awards prospects probably won't help it in the summertime. Even the festival buzz and good reviews will be worthless with this delay. I can maybe see it doing slightly better than most with the strong cast, but not that much. 10/35 (3.5x)

[Eric the IF]

June 28

A Quiet Place: Day One: Not really sure why they went with a random prequel and aren't finishing the cliffhanger they had in the last movie. Aren't these kids gonna be too old soon? And I don’t think audiences really wanted all this. The brand is still strong enough, but we should see a franchise low here. Which I guess is fine, it’s a prequel with none of the other characters, so whatever. 37/125 (3.38x)

 

Horizon: An American Saga Part 1: I'm sure some people will be confident this will be a breakout, but I don't buy it. The audience that would go to this back in 2009 are now happily watching Yellowstone on TV and have largely refused to go back to theaters apart from Top Gun. They aren’t going to go for this, since it’s, yet again, not a nostalgic toy commercial. But it will do better than most of these movies I suppose. 18/65 (3.61x)

[Eric the IF]

Honestly not that bad of a month...but I have a bit to keep up. So....oh noooooo theaters are going to die ahhhhhhhh

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, Eric Wonka said:

June 28

A Quiet Place: Day One: Not really sure why they went with a random prequel and aren't finishing the cliffhanger they had in the last movie. Aren't these kids gonna be too old soon? And I don’t think audiences really wanted all this. The brand is still strong enough, but we should see a franchise low here. Which I guess is fine, it’s a prequel with none of the other characters, so whatever. 37/125 (3.38x)

 

Horizon: An American Saga Part 1: I'm sure some people will be confident this will be a breakout, but I don't buy it. The audience that would go to this back in 2009 are now happily watching Yellowstone on TV and have largely refused to go back to theaters apart from Top Gun. They aren’t going to go for this, since it’s, yet again, not a nostalgic toy commercial. But it will do better than most of these movies I suppose. 18/65 (3.61x)

If anybody was playing a drinking game with your NTC  bit they would have died from Liver Failure a long time ago. 

[emoviefan]

I think June will get even better because I think WB is going to move Furiosa to June 7th. In fact I think starting next week when they get back from holiday break there is going to be a lot of  release date changes that are really going to f up this thread. 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

19 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

I think June will get even better because I think WB is going to move Furiosa to June 7th. In fact I think starting next week when they get back from holiday break there is going to be a lot of  release date changes that are really going to f up this thread. 

I'd be even more worried if they try to rush films to theaters next year.

[babz06]

3 hours ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

I agree that it is worrisome, hence why I'm skeptical about it. But something in Q1 has to break out unless we believe that cinemas will be completely deserted for 4 months, save for Dune (which won't be a mega hit anyway) and a couple more of decent releases.

Lisa frankenstein might have a break out chance too, but it has no star power and has nothing going for the male audience. At this point it's really hard to predict what will happen but I'm pretty sure that at least one of the smaller Q1 releases will crawl to 100 M, if not for anything else then just for the pure lack of competition.

It could easily just be a bunch of mid level performers, there isn’t always a break out especially in this market where people have other forms of entertainment besides movie theaters. If I had to guess, I’d say Mean Girls looks like it has the best chance to crack 100m and then probably Argylle for the Jan-Feb period.
 

The March- April period looks better with atleast 4 potential 100m+ grossers : Dune, Kung Fu Panda, Ghostbusters, and Godzilla.  You also have some small-mid budget films like Civil War and Challengers with a bit of buzz that could overperform.

Edited December 29, 2023 by babz06

[MysteryMovieMogul]

2 minutes ago, babz06 said:

It could easily just be a bunch of mid level performers, there isn’t always a break out especially in this market where people have other forms of entertainment besides movie theaters. If I had to guess, I’d say Mean Girls looks like it has the best chance to crack 100m and then probably Argylle for the Jan-Feb period.
 

The March- April period looks better with atleast 4 potential 100m+ grossers : Dune, Kung Fu Panda, Ghostbusters, and Godzilla. 

Are folks really expecting Kung Fu Panda to break out? It has a Netflix steaming show for years with Jack Black as the voice of Po. Why go to theaters when you can watch the show at home for free?

[YM!]

1 hour ago, Eric Wonka said:

June 14

Bad Boys 4: Bad Boys 3 surprised everybody with grossing 200M back when the world was sane and normal, and thankfully Adil and Bilall are back once again to deliver an exciting and fun crowdpleaser. Only real question mark is how much the slap damaged Will Smith’s reputation and popularity, but I think but I think most have moved on and just want a good time. Which this probably will be. 50/170 (3.4x)

 

Inside Out 2: The 2015 classic was already a hugely successful and iconic feature in the Pixar canon since day 1, and was one of the few Pixar movies that people actually wanted a sequel for. And sure enough, people are already excited judging by the crazy views on the teaser trailer, strong Quorum metrics, and it being a nostalgic toy commercial. With Disney putting out next to nothing in theaters, this is likely going to get tons of promo and hype up until release. All that's left is strong reviews, which...eh, even a Monsters University reception will probably be enough. So yeah, it should be a huge shot in the arm for the box office, though it will still be dinged by the Disney+ factor. But not that much. 140/455 (3.25x)

In the wake of Barbenheimer, next summer is about Inside Boys.

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, Eric Wonka said:

June 14

Bad Boys 4: Bad Boys 3 surprised everybody with grossing 200M back when the world was sane and normal, and thankfully Adil and Bilall are back once again to deliver an exciting and fun crowdpleaser. Only real question mark is how much the slap damaged Will Smith’s reputation and popularity, but I think but I think most have moved on and just want a good time. Which this probably will be. 50/170 (3.4x)

 

Inside Out 2: The 2015 classic was already a hugely successful and iconic feature in the Pixar canon since day 1, and was one of the few Pixar movies that people actually wanted a sequel for. And sure enough, people are already excited judging by the crazy views on the teaser trailer, strong Quorum metrics, and it being a nostalgic toy commercial. With Disney putting out next to nothing in theaters, this is likely going to get tons of promo and hype up until release. All that's left is strong reviews, which...eh, even a Monsters University reception will probably be enough. So yeah, it should be a huge shot in the arm for the box office, though it will still be dinged by the Disney+ factor. But not that much. 140/455 (3.25x)

If your prediction for IO2 is good , it will be the 3rd biggest weekend of all time for a animated movie after Incredibles 2 and Mario and also in the top 5 of the biggest animated movies of all time after Incredibles 2 , Mario , Frozen 2 and Finding Dory

[Eric the IF]

6 minutes ago, YM! said:

In the wake of Barbenheimer, next summer is about Inside Boys.

I just found the name for my Inside Man prequel script.

[babz06]

8 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Are folks really expecting Kung Fu Panda to break out? It has a Netflix steaming show for years with Jack Black as the voice of Po. Why go to theaters when you can watch the show at home for free?

I don’t think it’s going to breakout but it should do solid enough business being the first real kids movie since Christmas. 

Edited December 29, 2023 by babz06