Han and Eric's Doom and Gloom/Controversial Predictions of 2024

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, Eric Wonka said:

February 16

Bob Marley: One Love: The minimal advertising and the lack of a platform release in 2022 to get Oscar noms tells you everything you need to know about this film’s quality. And I don’t think Bob Marley is all that popular these days to help bring in a lot of people just on brand value. This is going low, even for music biopics. 10/14/30

 

Madame Web: Superhero movies are dead, so Sony superhero movies are like...dead dead. And like...y'all saw the trailer. The only question is how low this could go. Let’s say.....30M? Sure, slightly less than half of Morbius. 15/18/30

 

Something will do decently for Valentine's Day/President's Day...

 

Even though I don't do music biopics, a movie that literally has decided to put "love" in the title has planted its flag as a date option for the holiday...so I'd go much higher,  In fact, I expect both of these movies to do Feb 14 "early previews" rolled into the weekend that both go very high - Madame Web being the one you go to without the date, and Bob Marley being the one you go to with the date...so, I'd increase both numbers...

[filmlover]

Bob Marley: One Love feels like a nonevent along the same lines as Respect and I Wanna Dance with Somebody (even taking the same "if the iconic song won't sell the biopic, maybe also slapping the icon's name on it will" approach that the latter ended up doing) were, and I'm definitely not expecting much from the Amy Winehouse movie later in the year either. Like Whitney, there is no one who wants to relive her darker days (and the mockery they endured until it was too late), especially this soon.

[Cmasterclay]

I don't think March to December look quite as bad as initially feared, but boy do January and February stink.

[Bob Train]

I don't think Madame Web will do as bad as some people are saying. I see it opening at Blue Beetle level and then crashing.

[WrathOfHan]

January 5

 

Night Swim: Even by January Blumhouse standards, Night Swim's buzz feels still. This was never going to garner the same interest M3GAN had, but for a movie that's out in ten days, there needs to be a tsunami of positive signs for a breakout here: reviews, advertising, and sales. I have only gotten the trailer once and seen a single billboard. This one is... dead in the water. 10/25 (2.5x)

[WrathOfHan]

January 12

 

Mean Girls: The dismal marketing isn't fooling anyone. The film's target audience knows this is a musical, and early word of mouth seems decent. Paramount has been executing a strong advertising push on this, so as long as reviews deliver, this will likely hit the upper half of its tracking. I don't think 40M+ for the three day will happen, but maybe the 4 day crosses that mark. 32/38/96 Total (3x from 3 day/2.53x from 4 day)

 

The Beekeeper: It speaks volume that I've seen David Ayer talk more about The Ayer Cut than actually promote his movie out in a couple weeks. The Beekeeper doesn't look terrible by Jason Statham standards, and MGM is at least securing a good PLF presence against Mean Girls. This fills the niche of an older male skewing action flick and should hopefully make an ok profit. 11/13/33 (3x from 3 day/2.54x from 4 day)

 

The Book of Clarence: This was doomed the second Sony delayed it from September. They clearly wanted a prestigious release following The Harder They Fall's strong Netflix debut but realized it wouldn't gain traction. Debuting at the London Film Festival - to good reviews mind you! - with no presence due to the strike just shows how Sony fumbled this release. Jeymes Samuel probably should've stuck with Netflix; maybe the film eventually finds an audience there. 3/4/8 (2.67x from 3 day/2x from 4 day)

[WrathOfHan]

January 19

 

I.S.S.: Bleecker Street attempting to release a blockbuster? Don't make me laugh. Ariana DeBose is in for a rough year. 2/4 (2x)

[WrathOfHan]

February 2

 

Argylle: Like I was saying, Ariana DeBose is in for a rough year. Argylle has become the villain of anyone with an AMC A-List subscription and anyone who has seen at least 2-3 movies in the past couple months. The large ensemble cannot make up for a couple glaring, fundamental issues with Argylle's existence: for starters, this $200M production was shot roughly two years ago from what I gather, and Apple offloaded this to Universal to help recoup some of that money compared to other gems like Ghosted and The Family Plan (now their biggest original film, apparently!). Matthew Vaughn's shtick doesn't appeal to audiences anymore, plain and simple. That said, the film's overexposure at least means awareness will be high, even if the film's quality already looks questionable. Now, if Taylor Swift is suddenly revealed to be the author like some speculated, this will be an entirely different story. 15/40 (2.67x)

[filmlover]

Night Swim almost looks like a parody of the schlocky horror movies that are typically dumped on the first weekend of the year (M3GAN the exception). Hopefully at least Wyatt Russell and Kerry Condon received nice paychecks out of it.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Lemme add to the doom and gloom: there’s a very good chance we don’t see a single billion dollar movie next year. I say good chance because there is one movie with a good path to that number: Despicable Me 4.

[WittyUsername]

Not gonna lie, December next year actually looks like it could be kinda fun? At least compared to this year anyway. 

[Pinacolada]

7 hours ago, Eric Wonka said:

February 2

Argylle: Even with the trailer playing before every movie, Quorum awareness is still nonexistent. And frankly, these kinds of action comedy movies need a Ryan Reynolds or Sandra Bullock or Brad Pitt-style movie star to help sell it. I like Sam Rockwell, but he just ain’t it. People may predict this as a wild card, but I know this is yet another dud for the year. Maybe this does better on Apple TV+. 7/20 (2.86x)

Argylle is a bit of a wildcard for me. If Matthew Vaughn has any tricks left up his sleeve, and this turns out to be like Kingsman 1 level good/fun, I could see it having an ok OW and legging out to a respectable finish. This NEEDS good reviews. If it's anything like Kingsman 2 or The King's Man, it's over

 

There seems to be a lot of twists and turns in the movie, and you can tell they're advertising around that. I assume they'll drop another trailer. But yeah this needed a bigger star. It's got Cavill top billed, and he feels like someone who's so close to breaking out and being a draw but just can't get there. I think he's a fairly weak actor, but dudes LOVE him, and girls obviously also like him. But I think it's obvious from the marketing that this isn't a "Henry Cavill movie" so the internet crowd isn't really propping it up. It's wild that this cast cost $200m. I think people like Bryce Dallas Howard, but yeah she's not really a draw or a star. But it speaks to the lack of female stars post-2010 where I can't really name a better candidate to lead this movie. Like Jennifer Lawrence would probably never do this... Although she did work with Vaughn and is kinda in her "I want to have fun era"... So maybe that wouldn't have been a bad idea

Edited December 25, 2023 by Pinacolada

[Cmasterclay]

Looking at next year, I think September to December looks exceedingly better than this year tbh, March to August looks maybe a bit weaker but not tragically so, and January/February could kill theaters dead before we even have a chance.

[WrathOfHan]

February 9

 

Colleen Hoover's It Ends with Us: ...Is this even coming out in February? Sony had the chance to attach the trailer with Anyone But You but didn't. Justin Baldoni's track record in this sphere has generally been solid, and Blake Lively can pull attention on social media. After Love Again flopped, I am cautious about Sony finding success with another romance film, but if this sticks with February, it can probably do ok. 6/21 (3.5x)

 

Lisa Frankenstein: Focus has been struggling to capture a wider audience with nearly all of their post-pandemic releases, especially those not going for awards. Diablo Cody's name alone won't be a draw, and without a festival launch or large marketing budget, reviews will be crucial for generating a decent opening weekend at this scale. 4/12 (3x)

[emoviefan]

5 hours ago, Pinacolada said:

Argylle is a bit of a wildcard for me. If Matthew Vaughn has any tricks left up his sleeve, and this turns out to be like Kingsman 1 level good/fun, I could see it having an ok OW and legging out to a respectable finish. This NEEDS good reviews. If it's anything like Kingsman 2 or The King's Man, it's over

 

There seems to be a lot of twists and turns in the movie, and you can tell they're advertising around that. I assume they'll drop another trailer. But yeah this needed a bigger star. It's got Cavill top billed, and he feels like someone who's so close to breaking out and being a draw but just can't get there. I think he's a fairly weak actor, but dudes LOVE him, and girls obviously also like him. But I think it's obvious from the marketing that this isn't a "Henry Cavill movie" so the internet crowd isn't really propping it up. It's wild that this cast cost $200m. I think people like Bryce Dallas Howard, but yeah she's not really a draw or a star. But it speaks to the lack of female stars post-2010 where I can't really name a better candidate to lead this movie. Like Jennifer Lawrence would probably never do this... Although she did work with Vaughn and is kinda in her "I want to have fun era"... So maybe that wouldn't have been a bad idea

I have been one of the ones thinking Argyle has sleeper/surprise potential but they have truly shit the bed with the marketing here. Not having a second trailer drop before the holiday gravy train is perplexing. Either the movie is a giant piece of crap and they are just dumping it or it is the whole twist upon twist thing  which makes it hard to drop much more footage without spoiling it.  The problem is we are not at a time when audiences respond to coy/secretive marketing. 

[WrathOfHan]

February 14

 

Madame Web: Morbius already looks like a great hit in comparison to the CBM flops this year. Madame Web will undoubtedly continue the downward trend for the subgenre, but being a Spider-Man spinoff over Valentines Day has its perks. Initial reception to the trailer clearly isn't good, and Sony's recent history with the not-MCU has been iffy. I'm expecting a bad, but not disastrous, opening with weak legs, especially with Dune a couple weeks later. 20/30/45 (2.25x from 3 day/1.5x from 5 day)

 

Bob Marley: One Love: Coming off King Richard, Renaldo Marcus Green has some goodwill in the biopic world. With a slight delay, Bob Marley's trailer has been making the rounds theatrically for almost half a year now. I don't know if the trailer does enough to sell the movie for wider audiences, but with a musician on Marley's scale in an empty marketplace, drawing audiences in the late winter frame shouldn't be too hard. I imagine it does better than Whitney Houston movie which had zero visibility with audiences and bad reviews to boot. 15/22/53 (3.53x from 3 day/2.41x from 5 day)

 

The Chosen: Episodes 4-6: I should probably briefly mention this after Angel Studios managed to make the first "chapter" into a modest hit before Sound of Freedom. I'm sure a similar turnout will occur here. 10/25 (2.5x)

Edited December 26, 2023 by WrathOfHan

[WrathOfHan]

February 23

 

Demon Slayer: To the Hashira Training: Demon Slayer fans weren't thrilled when the last theatrical release was anime episodes packaged for the big screen, so this time around, it's clear another Mugen Train isn't in store. Only the die hard fans will show up for this. 6/10 (1.67x)

 

Drive-Away Dolls: Similar to Lisa Frankenstein, being a quirky genre film outside of awards season will do Ethan Coen's latest no favors. That said, the cast features enough known names to help boost its opening weekend a bit, and audiences should respond well to a Coen-adjacent flick. 5/13 (2.6x)

 

Ordinary Angels: We're not doing this again, Lionsgate. Either commit to releasing this film or sell it somewhere. 2/4 (2x)

[MysteryMovieMogul]

13 hours ago, Eric Wonka said:

January 12

The Beekeeper: Plane numbers I guess? Sure, why not? These cheesy action movies usually make these kinds of numbers. 10/30 (3x)

 

The Book of Clarence: Quorum metrics are in the toilet, and this seems like a movie ripe for controversy. Controversy that’s against a lot of the major audience sectors that still go to the movies. Don’t expect much from this. 6/18 (3x)

 

Mean Girls: I’m not sure why they are hiding the musical aspects of this. Because without that hook to bring people in, this just looks like a cheap direct-to-video remake of the original classic. However, I guess that doesn’t matter anymore. If anything, audiences would rather just have something that’s exactly the same as what they saw 20 years ago. 

 

With both Quorum and traditional tracking being strong, this has breakout potential, though maybe dinged a bit from false advertising. 35/115 (3.29x)

Mean Girls was originally made for streaming, then bumped to theatrical during the strikes, if memory serves me. I thought that meant they were pleasantly surprised by the finished product, but as I've seen no extra advertising for the film beyond the first and only trailer, I'm stumped. Am I intrigued by a film written by Tina Fey, based on the musical written by Tina Fey, based on the film written by Tina Fey? Yes, but probably not enough to see it in theaters.

 

13 hours ago, Eric Wonka said:

February 2

Argylle: Even with the trailer playing before every movie, Quorum awareness is still nonexistent. And frankly, these kinds of action comedy movies need a Ryan Reynolds or Sandra Bullock or Brad Pitt-style movie star to help sell it. I like Sam Rockwell, but he just ain’t it. People may predict this as a wild card, but I know this is yet another dud for the year. Maybe this does better on Apple TV+. 7/20 (2.86x)

I know I've already said my piece on Apple TV+ and Killers of the Flower Moon, but I really don't understand their three-film gamble. No one is talking about KotFM anymore, Napoleon is doing even worse as it has bad WoM and won't even get nods from the Academy, and now Argylle is... a film that exists, I guess. I like Bryce Dallas Howard, Sam Rockwell, and the rest of the cast, but Matthew Vaughn's Kingsman films are unremarkable to forgettable, so I can wait for this film to hit streaming, and I feel like I'm not alone in that feeling. It's almost like Apple wants to prove how unprofitable these types of films are in theaters so they can justify a full pivot to streaming. Do I believe that's actually the case? No, but their gambit doesn't seem to be paying off thus far.

 

13 hours ago, Eric Wonka said:

February 16

Bob Marley: One Love: The minimal advertising and the lack of a platform release in 2022 to get Oscar noms tells you everything you need to know about this film’s quality. And I don’t think Bob Marley is all that popular these days to help bring in a lot of people just on brand value. This is going low, even for music biopics. 10/14/30

 

Madame Web: Superhero movies are dead, so Sony superhero movies are like...dead dead. And like...y'all saw the trailer. The only question is how low this could go. Let’s say.....30M? Sure, slightly less than half of Morbius. 15/18/30

I didn't think the Madame Web trailer looked that bad. Unfortunately, I would never go to the theater for this film, so I guess the trailer wasn't enough. Also, superhero fatigue has been proven. And unless Spider-Man pops up, I think this will go the way of The Marvels and Aquaman 2, especially since Sony wants to set up their own Spiderverse. In this economy?!?

13 hours ago, Eric Wonka said:

February 23

Drive Away Dolls: Not a nostalgic toy commercial. 5/20 (4x)

 

Ordinary Angels: Not a nostalgic toy commercial, and it’s not Angel Studios. 3/8 (2.67x)

Drive Away Dolls looks bad. I'm sorry, but the Coen Brothers need to stick together.

[poweranimals]

18 hours ago, Eric Wonka said:

Boy, this month sucks...now onto the next month that will also suck.

What about Miller's Girl?

[CJohn]

I didn't realized how bad January and February looked. Studios only scheduled movies for the holiday weekends and nothing else. Wild. It Ends With Us is clearly gonna get pushed. I am not sure Madame Web makes the date either but Sony is certainly gonna try considering how barren the marketplace will be. Are theaters even getting to Dune at this point?