Han and Eric's Doom and Gloom/Controversial Predictions of 2024

[babz06]

6 hours ago, Grand Cine said:

Only 4 Movies with the potentiel to be above the 100M Mark in the four months of the year . Yikes . May and June are much better but yeah 2024 will be a long crossing of the desert

Studios had to mostly abandon Q1 when it looked like the strike would go deeper into November. They got lucky the deal went through before Thanksgiving and were able to somewhat salvage the summer and fall/winter.  

Edited December 28, 2023 by babz06

[filmlover]

7 hours ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Damn it, I forgot about this film. Who is this for? Folks who think Adam McKay films aren't subtle enough?

They want that Best Makeup Oscar for managing to turn Sebastian Stan into that gross beast (they're doing a rather convincing job if the early images are anything to go on).

[Eric S'ennui]

May 3

The Fall Guy: Universal is definitely confident in this picture, with the full trailer airing during football and being pushed back, so it can get the summer kick-off slot. Quorum awareness metrics and Twitter trends are already fairly solid for this, plus Ryan Gosling is fresh off his biggest hit. Emily Blunt is always a good presence too. It’s definitely something weirdos will whine about, but this will play quite well with people and be a strong success for this kind of midbudget John Wick action comedy subgenre of movies. 55/150 (2.73x)

[Eric S'ennui]

May 10

Horrorscope: Cheesy horror movies can sometimes break through from the "not a nostalgic toy commercial" curse. Not this one. 2/4 (2x)

 

My Ex-Friend’s Wedding: Not a nostalgic toy commercial. 2/5 (2.5x)

[Eric S'ennui]

May 17

If: Could go either way. A surprise hit or a major bomb. The trailer promises this as a fun, high-concept idea, its the first kids movie in a while, and Ryan Reynolds is one of the few reliable draws we have left. If John Krasinski made a crowdpleaser like his Quiet Place movies, this could be something. The only problem is that this is for little kids and little kids don't go to the movies anymore. Plus it's not a nostalgic toy commercial. Garfield coming out a week later also doesn't help. But perhaps Reynolds fans can propel this to Free Guy numbers. 35/115 (3.29x)

[Eric S'ennui]

May 24

Furiosa: Fury Road was already a strong hit back in 2015 and its esteem and reputation has only grown over the years. Sadly, this being a prequel does kind of limit things, and trailer reception was surprisingly on the iffy side. I'm also not sure why it's coming out the same weekend as Planet of the Apes. Still, if Miller delivers something on par with that classic, who knows what the ceiling is? But for now, let’s just go with the idea that it’s good, but slightly less impressive than its predecessor. 40/140 (3.5x)

 

Garfield: This has always been a recognizable and memed franchise, and the trailer has done well in getting animation fans excited and interested. Plus it’s a nostalgic toy commercial, and...well, you know what I have to say about that. Don’t quite think this has the epic breakout chance of a Minions movie or something, but we should be fine either way, and perform better than most animated movies these days. 55/180 (3.27x)

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: The lack of Caesar, the most universally loved aspect of the reboot trilogy, will probably hurt its chances, even outside of War being an underperformer. However, people still like these Apes movies quite a bit and the trailer promises fun action and great special effects. It will need some quality reception that I don’t think Wes Ball can pull off, but even with weak reception, getting close to War seems likely. Let’s be optimistic and say this does deliver. 60/160 (2.67x)

[Eric S'ennui]

This month still sucks though. Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead to be honest.

[Eric S'ennui]

 

And people wonder why I'm so negative here. Hmmmmmmmm.

[SchumacherFTW]

25 minutes ago, Eric Wonka said:

 

And people wonder why I'm so negative here. Hmmmmmmmm.

Because you're a miserable queen? 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

54 minutes ago, Eric Wonka said:

This month still sucks though. Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead to be honest.

We’re all Bruce Willis in the Sixth Sense.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Eric Wonka said:

May 24

Furiosa: Fury Road was already a strong hit back in 2015 and its esteem and reputation has only grown over the years. Sadly, this being a prequel does kind of limit things, and trailer reception was surprisingly on the iffy side. I'm also not sure why it's coming out the same weekend as Planet of the Apes. Still, if Miller delivers something on par with that classic, who knows what the ceiling is? But for now, let’s just go with the idea that it’s good, but slightly less impressive than its predecessor. 40/140 (3.5x)

 

Garfield: This has always been a recognizable and memed franchise, and the trailer has done well in getting animation fans excited and interested. Plus it’s a nostalgic toy commercial, and...well, you know what I have to say about that. Don’t quite think this has the epic breakout chance of a Minions movie or something, but we should be fine either way, and perform better than most animated movies these days. 55/180 (3.27x)

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: The lack of Caesar, the most universally loved aspect of the reboot trilogy, will probably hurt its chances, even outside of War being an underperformer. However, people still like these Apes movies quite a bit and the trailer promises fun action and great special effects. It will need some quality reception that I don’t think Wes Ball can pull off, but even with weak reception, getting close to War seems likely. Let’s be optimistic and say this does deliver. 60/160 (2.67x)

 

No way all 3 hold this weekend - Apes or Furiosa will move, since they target the same audience.  Or they won't, and well, I'd start decreasing their numbers...

[YM!]

2 hours ago, Eric Wonka said:

Garfield: This has always been a recognizable and memed franchise, and the trailer has done well in getting animation fans excited and interested. Plus it’s a nostalgic toy commercial, and...well, you know what I have to say about that. Don’t quite think this has the epic breakout chance of a Minions movie or something, but we should be fine either way, and perform better than most animated movies these days. 55/180 (3.27x)

Yknow I got a club in May with Garfield being the biggest May 2024 film 👀

 

 

Edited December 28, 2023 by YM!

[CJohn]

The scheduling for IF, Garfield, Apes and Furiosa is nonsensical. Why are those 4 movies being released so close together?!

[TwoMisfits]

5 hours ago, CJohn said:

The scheduling for IF, Garfield, Apes and Furiosa is nonsensical. Why are those 4 movies being released so close together?!

 

Especially with late April/early May being so empty...

 

With Mother's Day, you'd think IF would want to be there...it seems tailor-made as a "mom" movie...

[filmlover]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

Especially with late April/early May being so empty...

 

With Mother's Day, you'd think IF would want to be there...it seems tailor-made as a "mom" movie...

The Amy Winehouse biopic Back to Black is meant to be the big Mother's Day weekend release of the year, it was just added to the schedule a few weeks ago (My Ex-Friend's Wedding wasn't able to film due to the strike so expect that to be Mother's Day '25). Wouldn't expect much from it though given that everyone knows her life was a tragedy and don't need to relive her downfall. 

 

I expect one of Apes or Furiosa will end up moving back a week considering 5/31 is wide open.

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

Drive-away dolls has the biggest break-out potential out of the "small" movies, IMHO. If it is any good, it has a lot going for it, as it should be appealing enough for both women (who generally turn up for female-buddies comedies)  and men (who could be interested in Coen on the director chair and Qualley in the hot lesbian role) to give it a chance. Plus, comedies have been underrepresented in the last few years, so there is a potential void to fill. I wouldn't be shocked if it somehow manages to reach 100 M or at least get close to that if the reviews + WOM come out great (which I'm not quite confident about, given the release was set in "dump" territory).

Edited December 29, 2023 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[babz06]

5 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

Drive-away dolls has the biggest break-out potential out of the "small" movies, IMHO. If it is any good, it has a lot going for it, as it should be appealing enough for both women (who generally turn up for female-buddies comedies)  and men (who could be interested in Coen on the director chair and Qualley in the hot lesbian role) to give it a chance. Plus, comedies have been underrepresented in the last few years, so there is a potential void to fill. I wouldn't be shocked if it somehow manages to reach 100 M or at least get close to that if the reviews come out great (which I'm not quite confident about, given the release was set in "dump" territory).

No way it gets to 100m. It has no buzz or hype. 

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

1 minute ago, babz06 said:

No way it gets to 100m. It has no buzz or hype. 

It's too early for buzz or hype for this kind of original comedy though. "No hard feelings" got to 50 M in a more crowded time of the year with more competition, and while that had Jennifer Lawrence's star power to boost it, Drive Away dolls has Pedro Pascal, Matt Damon and Qualley for the promotional tour. I'm not saying that it is likely that it will reach 100 M, but it's not out of the realm of possibilities when it's coming out in a very barren calendar. It will likely live or die with its reviews and WOM, it could go as low as 10 M total or as high as 100. 

[filmlover]

Drive-Away Dolls screams "early year dump" with its late February release date after losing an equally not great late September spot. If it makes more than $20M total I'll be impressed.

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Drive-Away Dolls screams "early year dump" with its late February release date after losing an equally not great late September spot. If it makes more than $20M total I'll be impressed.

I agree that it is worrisome, hence why I'm skeptical about it. But something in Q1 has to break out unless we believe that cinemas will be completely deserted for 4 months, save for Dune (which won't be a mega hit anyway) and a couple more of decent releases.

Lisa frankenstein might have a break out chance too, but it has no star power and has nothing going for the male audience. At this point it's really hard to predict what will happen but I'm pretty sure that at least one of the smaller Q1 releases will crawl to 100 M, if not for anything else then just for the pure lack of competition.

Edited December 29, 2023 by ThePrinceIsOnFire