Han and Eric's Doom and Gloom/Controversial Predictions of 2024

[Grand Cine]

I'm more optimistic about Ballerina , i think more 30/90M, I think Horizon could be the Sound of Freedom of 2024. I'm less optimistic about Bad Boys 4 , i think more a 40/120M because of IO2 which will have all of the attention and also about the Will Smith case.

 

But Clearly , IO2 will be the Mario of 2023 with the advantage to be a sequel . The movie will have the nostalgia effect ( even if the first movie has just 8 years and half old) and the first teaser/trailer has the most optimist response of all the trailers than they have for the upcoming year .

 

I'm a little excited about the July predictions with Despicable me 4 and Deadpool 3

[emoviefan]

23 minutes ago, babz06 said:

It could easily just be a bunch of mid level performers, there isn’t always a break out especially in this market where people have other forms of entertainment besides movie theaters. If I had to guess, I’d say Mean Girls looks like it has the best chance to crack 100m and then probably Argylle for the Jan-Feb period.
 

The March- April period looks better with atleast 4 potential 100m+ grossers : Dune, Kung Fu Panda, Ghostbusters, and Godzilla.  You also have some small-mid budget films like Civil War and Challengers with a bit of buzz that could overperform.

Would love for Argyle to do 100 m but it has to be really good and they need to kick the marketing into gear like no later than next week. 

[M37]

20 minutes ago, babz06 said:

It could easily just be a bunch of mid level performers, there isn’t always a break out especially in this market where people have other forms of entertainment besides movie theaters. If I had to guess, I’d say Mean Girls looks like it has the best chance to crack 100m and then probably Argylle for the Jan-Feb period.
 

The March- April period looks better with atleast 4 potential 100m+ grossers : Dune, Kung Fu Panda, Ghostbusters, and Godzilla.  You also have some small-mid budget films like Civil War and Challengers with a bit of buzz that could overperform.

4 hours ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

I agree that it is worrisome, hence why I'm skeptical about it. But something in Q1 has to break out unless we believe that cinemas will be completely deserted for 4 months, save for Dune (which won't be a mega hit anyway) and a couple more of decent releases.

Lisa frankenstein might have a break out chance too, but it has no star power and has nothing going for the male audience. At this point it's really hard to predict what will happen but I'm pretty sure that at least one of the smaller Q1 releases will crawl to 100 M, if not for anything else then just for the pure lack of competition.

The only films released in Jan & Feb last year to top $65M were AMWQ (for which we have no analog), and M3GAN at $95M; next highest was Cocaine Bear with $65M. The year before there was a surprise breakout with Uncharted (following Holland's role in NWH) to $148M, and then Scream at $82M, and again a drop down to a surprise with Dog at $61M. And that continued into March (only Batman) and April (Sonic, plus a few more $75M+ films)

 

Expecting more of the same to start this year, but perhaps without that one big film as release schedule got shuffled around, unless Argyle or Madame Web pulls an Uncharted (fwiw, I'd bet on the latter more than the former)

[WrathOfHan]

April 5

 

The First Omen: I'm not sure how much cultural relevancy The Omen has for horror fans and younger audiences to latch onto a prequel. As we saw with The Exorcist: Believer, a legacy brand alone cannot uplift a film if the final product is garbage. Evil Dead Rise's 24.5M came with a month of buzz from SXSW and a more well-known franchise, so if Disney is trying to position The First Omen as a quality franchise play, early WOM will be critical for standing out. 12/30 (2.5x)

[WrathOfHan]

April 12

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire: The MonsterVerse feels like old news nowadays, especially with Godzilla Minus One being a breakout hit in the US grossing over 40% of what King of the Monsters made. Monarch on Apple has generated decent viewership for the service but is leaving no impact online whatsoever. Godzilla vs Kong benefitted from being a late stage pandemic film with a day and date launch, but even before COVID delays there were already concerns about its box office potential. This new GVK feels like something that will rely heavily on a late marketing push because there's no reason to be excited for it four months in advance. 35/90 (2.57x)

[WrathOfHan]

April 26

 

Challengers: Prior to its strike delay, Challengers had lots of chatter online and strong trailer placement theatrically. It was poised to open Venice until MGM pulled the plug on a 2023 rollout. Once the marketing train resumes, I have no doubt the initial interest will return. Zendaya will be fresh off Dune, further helping the film's visibility as she campaigns. 15/45 (3x)

 

Civil War: A24 is positioning this as a return to form for Alex Garland following the dreadful Men, bestowing it with a large budget and an IMAX release. However, the same was said for Beau Is Afraid which ended up being a non-commercial, 3 hour odyssey from their biggest hitmaker Ari Aster. Will this just be a blank check for Garland, or is there strong commercial potential? I'll err on the side of caution for now; like many films this month, WOM will be crucial for success. 10/25 (2.5x)

[MovieMan89]

My ultimate doom and gloom for 2024 is no 300+ grosser DOM if DP3, IO2, BJ2, and Joker all get less than great WOM. I don’t really think any other movie stands a chance tbh, and all 4 of those can be totally killed by WOM, they are not locks by any stretch. 

[YM!]

19 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

My ultimate doom and gloom for 2024 is no 300+ grosser DOM if DP3, IO2, BJ2, and Joker all get less than great WOM. I don’t really think any other movie stands a chance tbh, and all 4 of those can be totally killed by WOM, they are not locks by any stretch. 

DM4 should do 300m unless it’s like too bad for parents to bear.

[Brainbug]

41 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

April 12

 

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire: The MonsterVerse feels like old news nowadays, especially with Godzilla Minus One being a breakout hit in the US grossing over 40% of what King of the Monsters made. Monarch on Apple has generated decent viewership for the service but is leaving no impact online whatsoever. Godzilla vs Kong benefitted from being a late stage pandemic film with a day and date launch, but even before COVID delays there were already concerns about its box office potential. This new GVK feels like something that will rely heavily on a late marketing push because there's no reason to be excited for it four months in advance. 35/90 (2.57x)

 

I didnt like any sentence in this text ☹️

[emoviefan]

29 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

My ultimate doom and gloom for 2024 is no 300+ grosser DOM if DP3, IO2, BJ2, and Joker all get less than great WOM. I don’t really think any other movie stands a chance tbh, and all 4 of those can be totally killed by WOM, they are not locks by any stretch. 

That would be the first non 2020 year since 2000 when How the Grinch Stole Christmas was number 1 at like 260. Of course ticket prices were lower then so that would be over 400 in 23 dollars.  I think one or even all 4 of those movies should do 300 assuming good WOM but any of them doing 400+. Will see.

[MovieMan89]

2 hours ago, YM! said:

DM4 should do 300m unless it’s like too bad for parents to bear.

That would be very surprising for a 4th film at this point unless they can manage to engineer something viral like gentleminions again. Or if families just say no to IO2 I guess, then the market would be pretty open. 

[WrathOfHan]

May 3

 

The Fall Guy: This might be one of my hotter predictions, but I think this is coming for a break out. Bullet Train, despite a meh box office, found a big audience on Netflix and continues to stay relevant online. The Fall Guy has the added benefit of being PG-13 to bring in more teens and a starved, starved market for non-fantasy action by the time summer rolls around. Both Gosling and Blunt are coming off two of the biggest films of 2023 and are near locks to be Oscar nominated, further boosting the film's promotion and presence during awards season. Universal made a smart move vacating March to launch the summer. 60/190 (3.17x)

Edited December 30, 2023 by WrathOfHan

[WrathOfHan]

May 10

 

My Ex-Friend's Wedding: Kay Cannon had a bit of a blunder with Cinderella even with Sony selling it to Amazon, but they still have confidence in the filmmaker to grant her another mid budget comedy. This feels like the obligatory Mother's Day comedy. Amanda Seyfried is enough of a draw to avoid a dreadful opening like Love Again for Sony last year, but as with all comedies these days, star power alone isn't enough to bring in audiences. This needs a trailer before any larger predictions, but if it flops... this is yet another example of Ariana DeBose having a bad year. 8/24 (3x)

 

Horrorscope: I highly doubt Sony is releasing this the same day as My Ex-Friend's Wedding, but the synopsis and Screen Gems banner make this sound DOA. 2/4 (2x)

[WrathOfHan]

May 17

 

The Strangers: Chapter 1: There seems to be genuine enthusiasm for the new Strangers reboot in horror circles, and Blumhouse has been expressing lots of confidence in it too. Lionsgate is attempting the Fear Street model theatrically with the remaining two chapters to be released later in 2024, which will undoubtedly draw attention and curiosity. I expect some frontloading as I doubt it will appeal beyond horror fans in tune with what Blumhouse is attempting, but if the film exceeds expectations, legs could be strong with no other horror films until A Quiet Place right now. 30/70 (2.33x)

 

IF: Fucking obnoxious trailer. This will be the internet's punching bag for quite a while. This is the only live action family film coming out for quite a while, so it can co-exist with Garfield fine. Unless Krasinski has delivered a true four quad crowdpleaser, I don't think IF will do anything extraordinary. 20/70 (3.5x)

 

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by WrathOfHan

[WrathOfHan]

May 24

 

Furiosa: Here we go, fellas. After Fury Road exceed expectations both quality-wise and at the box office, another entry into the Mad Max universe based on the film's breakout character has all the makings for a smash hit. WB is standing firm on going against Apes, which I don't anticipate to be too big of an issue as Furiosa already has the IMAX advantage. Furiosa has everything working in its favor, and I would be shocked if it finishes under Fury Road unadjusted. 70/87/210 (3x from 3 day/2.41x from 4 day)

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: If either sci-fi film will suffer from this showdown, it's Apes. Kingdom essential soft-reboots the last trilogy, leaving audiences without much of a hook to re-enter the franchise. War was subject to massive over-predicting back in 2017 following Dawn's overperformance and ended up being more frontloaded than many had hoped. I've gotten the trailer multiples times theatrically, and audiences never seem engaged with it. If I was a decision maker at Disney, I'd be moving this later in the summer to get away from Furiosa. 35/47/100 (2.86x from 3 day/2.13x from 4 day)

 

Garfield: The memes are already driving awareness with the young adult crowd, and kids will obviously want to see a Garfield movie over the summer. Easy money, folks. 30/40/120 (4x from 3 day/3x from 4 day)

[WittyUsername]

Something needs to move to May 31st already. That week is completely vacant right now. What’s the issue? 

[poweranimals]

21 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Something needs to move to May 31st already. That week is completely vacant right now. What’s the issue? 

Studios don't want to miss out on that Memorial Day boost.

[WittyUsername]

43 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Studios don't want to miss out on that Memorial Day boost.

Hasn’t stopped them before. It didn’t exactly hurt ATSV. 

[Flip]

There’s a lot of wildcards this year: Horizon, Garfield, Gladiator 2, Furiosa, Wicked, Fall Guy, etc. I wouldn’t be surprised if they all failed to reach 100m nor if they were big successes

[cannastop]

19 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

My ultimate doom and gloom for 2024 is no 300+ grosser DOM if DP3, IO2, BJ2, and Joker all get less than great WOM. I don’t really think any other movie stands a chance tbh, and all 4 of those can be totally killed by WOM, they are not locks by any stretch. 

no lol