Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]

[keysersoze123]

Spielberg has been amazingly consistent. He rarely has delivered outright failures until very recently. BFG, west side story and fablemans are BO failures. off that I agree with WSS being a victom of COVID era BO. It was a solid movie otherwise. I am sure he can make another successful movie at the BO if he gets the right subject. But I am not sure that is his priority. He has delivered enough all time blockbusters in his times that its not a big deal any more. 

[MightyDargon]

I still think they should have premiered Dune 2 in Aquaman 2's slot and let Aquaman rot in some post MLK dump slot. Can you imagine if this was the only new thing between Christmas and this week?

Then slot Godzilla x Kong into where Dune 2 actually launched. Ample space for them both.

[Poseidon]

Happy with the numbers, but from a theater owners perspective it's still quite baffling, that that's basically half of an audience, an average 2010-movie drew with an $80m-opening. 

 

Even 5 Nights at freddys will end up with more admissions on OW. 

[MightyDargon]

Just now, Poseidon said:

Happy with the numbers, but from a theater owners perspective it's still quite baffling, that that's basically half of an audience, an average 2010-movie drew with an $80m-opening. 

 

Even 5 Nights at freddys will end up with more admissions on OW. 

Absolutely no one who actually greenlights movies cares about admits, it's all about gross and revenue. If admits were king Mario would trump everything last year.

[WittyUsername]

I think Emma Stone’s general popularity and the fact that it was released in December played a big part in Poor Things doing unusually well compared to most other “artsy” films nowadays. The Fabelmans also came out when COVID fears were still present to a degree, so people were less likely to go to the theater to watch a slow paced Oscar bait film. 

[von Kenni]

Dune weekend actuals and Sunday estimates based on MTC1

 

1) I compared reported Sat actuals to MTC1 estimate and found out that MTC1 numbers need to be adjusted 1.4% upward.

 

2) Using the adjustment we can deduct the true Friday to be $20.79M and Previews+EA $11.56M (they rounded it to $12M).

 

3) Based on ATP change from Dune 2 Sat previews to actuals I estimated Sunday ATP to be 1.5% lower than Saturday if the relative walkups pace is the same. If it is lower, I adjusted the ATP slightly upward and likewise downward if it is higher.

 

4) Relative walkups pace compared to Dune 2 Saturday.

 

5) OW estimates paced on different walkups paces (Sunday estimates above). The reported $20.3M Sunday would need worse walkups than on Friday. I see midpoint around 90%+ walkups pace and highly likely (80% confidence level) that we're looking at

 

$83-85M OW and $84M with $22.8M Sunday -21% drop as the midpoint

 

$83M OW would mean -24.5% Sun drop

$85M OW -17.6% drop

 

[MightyDargon]

1 minute ago, WittyUsername said:

I think Emma Stone’s general popularity and the fact that it was released in December played a big part in Poor Things doing unusually well compared to most other “artsy” films nowadays. The Fabelmans also came out when COVID fears were still present to a degree, so people were less likely to go to the theater to watch a slow paced Oscar bait film. 

The all time champ of post COVID art films is EEAO. Poor Things DOES point out that putting sex scenes in your film is not an automatic commercial death sentence though.

[Poseidon]

2 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Absolutely no one who actually greenlights movies cares about admits, it's all about gross and revenue. If admits were king Mario would trump everything last year.

Well, theater owners should care, because admits sell popcorn and soft drinks.

There will be a breaking point, when higher premium-prices won't make up for the loss of admissions. 

[WittyUsername]

1 minute ago, MightyDargon said:

The all time champ of post COVID art films is EEAO. Poor Things DOES point out that putting sex scenes in your film is not an automatic commercial death sentence though.

EEAO did come out at the height of the multiverse craze. 

[von Kenni]

49 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Meh. Ready Player One did 600 something worldwide but that was a popular book. I wouldn't say he's an automatic 500 mil at this point.

Talking about RPO, it had 3.3x DOM legs in 2018 and was released in the latter part of March. The best legs since 2018. Had a bit younger demos than Dune but there's no reason why Dune can't go over 3x legs-wise if the WOM, repeat viewings, and PLF-fueled ATP kick in. How much beyond 3x? I think next weekend can help us a lot on that.

[MightyDargon]

1 minute ago, Poseidon said:

Well, theater owners should care, because admits sell popcorn and soft drinks.

There will be a breaking point, when higher premium-prices won't make up for the loss of admissions. 

If they want more admits they should fork over the money to build more PLFs.

[MightyDargon]

1 minute ago, von Kenni said:

Talking about RPO, it had 3.3x DOM legs in 2018 and was released in the latter part of March. The best legs since 2018. Had a bit younger demos than Dune but there's no reason why Dune can't go over 3x legs-wise if the WOM, repeat viewings, and PLF-fueled ATP kick in. How much beyond 3x? I think next weekend can help us a lot on that.

Sure, Dune 2 could have a good multiplier, but I'm not sure if a pre COVID YA movie is exactly the best thing to use as a comparison. I'd be curious to see if Ghostbusters or Godzilla x Kong get a sudden spike. If they don't...

[dallas]

12 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

I still think they should have premiered Dune 2 in Aquaman 2's slot and let Aquaman rot in some post MLK dump slot. Can you imagine if this was the only new thing between Christmas and this week?

Then slot Godzilla x Kong into where Dune 2 actually launched. Ample space for them both.

What? Absolutely not. The release schedule they went with was absolutely fine. Releasing Aquaman 2 over Christmas ensured that WB only went into the red in the tens of millions instead of in the hundreds of millions. Plus releasing Dune 2 now was ideal because of its IMAX exclusivity and lack of competition for nearly a month. 

[MightyDargon]

Just now, dallas said:

What? Absolutely not. The release schedule they went with was absolutely fine. Releasing Aquaman 2 over Christmas ensured that WB only went into the red in the tens of millions instead of in the hundreds of millions. Plus releasing Dune 2 now was ideal because of its IMAX exclusivity and lack of competition for nearly a month. 

Wouldn't it have easily gotten the IMAX exclusivity if it was the Christmas release though? It was still a waste of a prime slot on a movie that bombed anyway.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

15 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

Happy with the numbers, but from a theater owners perspective it's still quite baffling, that that's basically half of an audience, an average 2010-movie drew with an $80m-opening. 

 

Even 5 Nights at freddys will end up with more admissions on OW. 

How many of those theaters from 2010 are closed now, have cut hours, or gone all recliner? There are fewer seats to be filled and showtimes to be had, though admittedly that's in response to dropping attendance. Most places I go to have smaller staffs than before Covid so that's less in overhead for theaters.

Edited March 3 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[MightyDargon]

I guarantee you this will have a hell of a lot better legs/overall admits than Freddys did. That type of horror film is a pump and dump. 

(Thinks back to the "low" opener for Avatar 2 vs its overall gross)

[von Kenni]

10 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Sure, Dune 2 could have a good multiplier, but I'm not sure if a pre COVID YA movie is exactly the best thing to use as a comparison. I'd be curious to see if Ghostbusters or Godzilla x Kong get a sudden spike. If they don't...

Yeah, not exactly meant either that it's a good comp for Dune exactly the reasons you mentioned but wanted to throw it there when you mentioned it as a fun tidbit.

 

The Batman might be closest as another post covid Marxh release and closer demos to Dune. It did 2.76x and I think around 2.7x should be floor for Dune but I would be surprised if it wouldn't beat The Batman and cautiously already see it has a good chance to go over 3x. But it's easy to get speed blindness with just one weekend so far which isn't even over yet...

[MightyDargon]

1 minute ago, von Kenni said:

Yeah, not exactly meant either that it's a good comp for Dune exactly the reasons you mentioned but wanted to throw it there when you mentioned it as a fun tidbit.

 

The Batman might be closest as another post covid Marxh release and closer demos to Dune. It did 2.76x and I think around 2.7x should be floor for Dune but I would be surprised if it wouldn't beat The Batman and cautiously already see it has a good chance to go over 3x. But it's easy to get speed blindness with just one weekend so far which isn't even over yet...

Batman is an interesting comp. I'd just like some 2nd week data before I could assume anything.

[MovieMan89]

Imagine if Dune 2 wasn’t too far along to cancel after 1… hopefully studios see this as meaning something planned as multiple parts doesn’t have to succeed out of the gate if the quality is there.

 

Migration has turned into a massive win for Illumination at this point. 300 WW against a 70 budget? Yeah, that’s a hefty profit. Their track record of very profitable movies honestly continues to floor me. Nothing has broken it yet as far as their animation goes. 

[WittyUsername]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Imagine if Dune 2 wasn’t too far along to cancel after 1… hopefully studios see this as meaning something planned as multiple parts doesn’t have to succeed out of the gate if the quality is there.

Part Two hadn’t even begun filming by the time Part One was released. They made sure to wait and see how the first one would do before moving forward with the sequel. It wasn’t exactly a Lord of the Rings situation, where the entire trilogy was filmed at once.