Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]

[von Kenni]

40 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Okay thank god I don’t have to take anyone out to Chili’s.

[kayumanggi]

 

[toutvabien]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

really good opening. Some people think it will leg out like Oppenheimer though. Remember Dune 1 dropped 60% second weekend

Dune 1 was a day-and-date HBO Max release. Even with that in mind, it was leggier than plenty of other films released with that model.

[Bob Train]

7 minutes ago, John Marston said:

really good opening. Some people think it will leg out like Oppenheimer though. Remember Dune 1 dropped 60% second weekend

…And that was one of the best ever drops for a day and date movie, those usually drop 70-80%

[toutvabien]

Thinking The Batman-type legs (x2.76) are very much within reach. That gets it to ~$225M. And that had the 45-day window and was 10 minutes longer.

[Johnny Tran]

Really good numbers for 'Dune' but I don't think you can make any type of "Part One" comparisons.  It was during the pandemic and also a day/date release on HBO Max. 

 

We have no clue what the first one would have done under normal circumstances.  

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Did ERC do their own demographic sampling? If not they have been reporting lower but wrong male % at 59% vs postrak 65%.

[AniNate]

Another week, another miniscule drop for Migration. End of the line is coming though.

 

Put some kids movies in winter next year, dammit.

 

 

Edited March 3 by AniNate

[emoviefan]

17 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Bob Marley needs to start showing some legs to reach 100M.

It needed to be a better movie. That fact that it will get close is impressive. 

[Eric S'ennui]

34 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Seeing a trend of people saying they weren’t a fan of movie one but they loved this one. This, combined with older audiences coming out to see this, has me feeling very good about legs, including on weekdays. 

Not sure why this is. I didn’t see much an evolution or difference between movies. I love both movies, so that’s fine, but it just seems odd to dislike Part 1 and then love Part 2.

[kayumanggi]

7 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Did ERC do their own demographic sampling? If not they have been reporting lower but wrong male % at 59% vs postrak 65%.

 

I tried to find info but failed. Where does it say it's 65%?

[ando]

At first I was a little meh on that OS opening, but if you just include the totals for the markets it opened in this wknd (plus no Russia), Part 2 did about 45% of Part 1's total run OS ($220m or so).

 

Seems solid enough. $340M from these markets, plus China (I'm going $60M+, presales still moving quite nice), Japan ($10-12M) and Middle East markets yet to open b/c of Ramadan, then $400M+ OS seems certain. 

[titanic2187]

3 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I tried to find info but failed. Where does it say it's 65%?

From deadline where they quote posttrak. 
 

“The question: do more of the Zendaya fans come out and does this turn into more of a date night film than it is: 20% came with their partner/spouse while 11% brought a date versus 21% who went alone and 17% who brought one friend. Women under 25 at 10% attended, and they gave the Timothee Chalamet, Austin, Butler, Zendaya pic an 85% to the 93%-plus grades of the other demos. Dune: Part Two is dude leaning at 65%. “

Edited March 3 by titanic2187

[ringedmortality]

4 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

Not sure why this is. I didn’t see much an evolution or difference between movies. I love both movies, so that’s fine, but it just seems odd to dislike Part 1 and then love Part 2.

 

Part 1 is slower with less action.

[TMP]

10 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

Not sure why this is. I didn’t see much an evolution or difference between movies. I love both movies, so that’s fine, but it just seems odd to dislike Part 1 and then love Part 2.

2UNE is significantly more propulsive in its pace, and richer in its character work and thematic depth, that I think it’s a great deal better than the first imo. Chalamet is also… kind of bad in part one, but goes god mode here. 

[von Kenni]

47 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

So 84M final?

 

 

Most likely. If the reported previews, Friday, and Saturday are accurate or close to it, almost certainty that estimated Sunday is a joke. Presales difference between Saturday and Sunday imply 17.7% drop if the walkups are same pace as on Saturday. Presales is already more than half of all sales so to reach levels like 30% drop would need much worse walkups than on Friday or Thursday which were considerably worse than Saturday already.

 

It might not reach that 17.7% drop if Sunday evening is much slower than Saturday evening but if the accelerating effect of WOM is there it can go to that 15% drop that Charlie entertained as well. 20% drop could be cautious estimate with this data.

 

MTC1 tracking data has actually been pretty good if you adjust it upward. Friday was $20.5m according to it and Saturday $28.3M. I'll make a table on this later today but I can already say that trusting the reported numbers before today's estimate the final will increase for sure and highly likely around $2-3M (like keysersoze already said) ending close to $84M. Oppenheimer will be toast for sure.

 

That's it for JW4 comparisons.

 

Although I'm sure some will bable about it until Dune shows its legs.

[filmlover]

Dune should have no problem being #1 until Ghostbusters in three weeks at least.

[vafrow]

24 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Another week, another miniscule drop for Migration. End of the line is coming though.

 

Put some kids movies in winter next year, dammit.

 

 

 

Next January has a Paddington film and DreamWorks has Dog Man scheduled. Hopefully both keep their dates so families have some decent options over the winter.

[Borobudur]

34 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

In line with quality improvement from one to two. Totally deserving the jump.

[von Kenni]

26 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Did ERC do their own demographic sampling? If not they have been reporting lower but wrong male % at 59% vs postrak 65%.

I was thinking the same. Could exhibits have data from yesterday on this that would imply better show up with women compared to Friday (or when the original PostTrak data was collected). It's better than Part 1 too and this can also grow the legs.