3/08-3/10 Weekend Estimates : KFP 4 : 58,3M , Dune 2 : 46,3M , Imaginary : 10M , Caprini : 7,6M

[DAJK]

I'm not sure how well the "starved kids demo" is going to serve IF and/or Garfield in May. Honestly, I could see both movies somewhat cannibalizing each other, only putting up "respectable" grosses rather than one of them truly breaking out. I genuinely think that both have "200M+ potential" but for now I'm thinking they both gross somewhere in the 75-125 range (unless IF for example turns out to be top-tier Pixar quality, which I'm doubtful of).

 

Thinking IF does Tomorrowland numbers (80-90M total) while Garfield does Angry Birds/Migration numbers.

[leoh]

2 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

The movies are back.

 

(I say before April ends with disappointment after disappointment)

 

I am not sure about that regarding April box office. We’ll still have Ghostbusters (which is having good pre sales here in NY, and in @TheFlatLannister @abracadabra1998 @dallas trackings as well. GxK will be only in its second weekend in April (and I don’t think its final run will make less than 100M). Plus there’s Civil War taking over all IMAX screens and it seams it’s a really good movie (Oscar level from what I was told), so it may at least make something over The Beekeeper box office. There’s also the great Amy Winehouse biopic, it can get a box office similar to One Love I’d say. And the leftovers of Panda and Dune won’t be that bad.

 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

1 minute ago, leoh said:

 

I am not sure about that regarding April box office. We’ll still have Ghostbusters (which is having good pre sales here in NY, and in @TheFlatLannister @abracadabra1998 @dallas trackings as well. GxK will be only in its second weekend in April (and I don’t think its final run will make less than 100M). Plus there’s Civil War taking over all IMAX screens and it seams it’s a really good movie (Oscar level from what I was told), so it may at least make something over The Beekeeper box office. There’s also the great Amy Winehouse biopic, it can get a box office similar to One Love I’d say. And the leftovers of Panda and Dune won’t be that bad.

 

 I was joking. 

[AniNate]

Box office wise April looks weak compared to last year because there's no Mario. But from a personal taste standpoint it looks far more interesting this year w an Alex Garland and Luca Guadagnino film, plus Monkey Man could be buzzy title if the SXSW reception goes well.

[leoh]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

This was a great press tour though. 

 

 

Not like she was the only one though

 

 

 

Sony didn’t care much about Madame Web quality (it was OUTSOURCED to Bonaventura Pictures, the proof is that actresses said they filmed it Boston, home of Bonaventura studios). It turned out to be not good and this the only reason why Madame Web is having a bad box office (although it won’t be as much of a disaster like The Marvels, the Flash or Shazam 2 since it cost only 80M after tax credits/incentives).

 

Dakota Johnson (promoting Madame Web) had one of the most iconic tours ever. There’s no person on internet who hadn’t heard of it. So if the movie was good it’d have make tons of money, it’d be like “an underdog turned out to be a giant”. So IF this rumour was true, Sony would be wrong, Dakota and her funny sarcasm put movie in everyone’s mouth. She made her job. Sony didn’t.

[PlatnumRoyce]

1 minute ago, leoh said:

 

Sony didn’t care much about Madame Web quality (it was OUTSOURCED to Bonaventura Pictures, the proof is that actresses said they filmed it Boston, home of Bonaventura studios). It turned out to be not good and this the only reason why Madame Web is having a bad box office (although it won’t be as much of a disaster like The Marvels, the Flash or Shazam 2 since it cost only 80M after tax credits/incentives).

The Tax credits are only reported publicly in July so that 80M number feels like an extra nudge of studio spin to cushion the PR of the film's status as a bomb.  I think we should default to buying the $100M number.

[leoh]

14 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

 I was joking. 

 
 

sorry lol

 

I took it seriously because there’re some people seriously saying the same thing about April 😅 in this case I’m a bit more optimistic specially with Civil War. I watched the trailer on a Dune screening in an IMAX dual laser location and bro it looks insane, plus 1:85 aspect ratio.

[Eric is Quiet]

Yeah Monkey Man, Challengers, and Civil War aren't going to be massive hits, but they all have potential to overperform from expectations, especially when John Wick/A24/Zendaya/tennis are bigger than ever. Just really depends on reviews of course, but it also helps that May doesn't have some huge Marvel juggernaut to muck things up or steal attention.

[leoh]

7 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

The Tax credits are only reported publicly in July so that 80M number feels like an extra nudge of studio spin to cushion the PR of the film's status as a bomb.  I think we should default to buying the $100M number.

In fact it’s a pretty common thing nowadays movies getting smaller budgets due to tax credits. The Marvels and The Flash without tax credits would have cost 270 freaking million…

 

Plus watching Madame Web (as I did) you get even surprised it could really have cost more than 80M before tax credit lol

Edited March 10 by leoh

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

I think April will be filled with mostly low key hits. No massive numbers but solid performers. I’m feeling very good about Challengers, Civil War should get some business from curiosity about its subject matter, Monkey Man also looks like a decent sleeper hit. Abigail and First Omen also should provide some support from horror.

[leoh]

32 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

I think April will be filled with mostly low key hits. No massive numbers but solid performers. I’m feeling very good about Challengers, Civil War should get some business from curiosity about its subject matter, Monkey Man also looks like a decent sleeper hit. Abigail and First Omen also should provide some support from horror.

agreed

 

I mentioned Amy Winehouse biopic, but it’s only coming out in May.

[titanic2187]

5 hours ago, leoh said:

 

lol

 

these over statements are just funny.

 

In fact, the luckiest one was Dune. Not because Oppenheimer is far better (in fact both movies achieved cinema highest level possible). However if you know how awarding season works you know why Dune and Denis would not stand a chance against Oppenheimer.

 

I consider Killers Of the Flower Moon post pandemics best movie. Yet I’m not naive, Nolan and Universal insane award campaign and the first 1 billion ish for a high profile movie since Lord of Rings make Oppenheimer unbeatable. 

 

Don’t be naive, Oscar is not about “the best movie”, it’s the “best movie with the best award campaign”.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wrong, Netflix run insane award campaign for Roma, Irishman and marriage story but still couldn’t take down best picture. Oppenheimer campaign is not “insane” by any level if you paid attention to award season, they are pretty standard or at most above average.

 

CODA, or spotlight, didn’t have lavish Oscar campaign but they still won. It is never about best campaign as your proclaim. Don’t get too naive. yes campaign matters but the pre-requisite of that is, you have to be a great movie or best movie in a lot of eyes, and Oppenheimer qualify that criteria. 

[leoh]

36 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Wrong, Netflix run insane award campaign for Roma, Irishman and marriage story but still couldn’t take down best picture. Oppenheimer campaign is not “insane” by any level if you paid attention to award season, they are pretty standard or at most above average.

 

CODA, or spotlight, didn’t have lavish Oscar campaign but they still won. It is never about best campaign as your proclaim. Don’t get too naive. yes campaign matters but the pre-requisite of that is, you have to be a great movie or best movie in a lot of eyes, and Oppenheimer qualify that criteria. 

Don’t get me wrong, your second paragraph says exactly what I think. About this we don’t disagree (except for “It is never about campaign”, for most of categories it’s all about marketing campaigns, especially in the most technical categories, where you have to make private sessions with voters to explain the development/process etc). This is why I added. ”The best movie with the best award campaign”. Movies like Oppenheimer, Dune Part Two and Killer of the Flower Moon (the best one IMO) are cinematic achievements. You can’t describe any one of them as far better or clearly better than the other ones. You of course will always have your best one though. So when you achieve cinema highest level, what makes the difference is how good your your award campaign is. It’s way less romantic than people think, not all voters even watch all movies, (yeah you read it right) before the short lists come out there are thousands of movies from all around the world to be watched.

 

About your first paragraph we disagree because there are some facts, which movie had the most Screening debates? Oppenheimer.  Which movie had the most score live concerts? Oppenheimer. (In some case the second is not even Barbie but instead Maestro (this may sound weird ikr). Regarding Netflix, everyone knows the voters still have prejudice against Netflix movies, plus they don’t have the box office numbers to back their award campaigns.

 

By the way, what The Academy did with The Irish Man was just atrocious, prejudice was clearer than ever. And yeah they really did a really big award campaign, but prejudice speaks louder sometimes.

Edited March 10 by leoh

[ThomasNicole]

36 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Wrong, Netflix run insane award campaign for Roma, Irishman and marriage story but still couldn’t take down best picture. Oppenheimer campaign is not “insane” by any level if you paid attention to award season, they are pretty standard or at most above average.

 

CODA, or spotlight, didn’t have lavish Oscar campaign but they still won. It is never about best campaign as your proclaim. Don’t get too naive. yes campaign matters but the pre-requisite of that is, you have to be a great movie or best movie in a lot of eyes, and Oppenheimer qualify that criteria. 

Yeah it needs to be a good movie in many eyes. But above that, it should be a movie that doesn’t offend much people, especially now with the preferential ballot.
 

Which is why i think Roma lost to Green Book, or Power Of The Dog lost to Coda. They’re all somewhat decent movies (to most people), but the losers are clearly the better ones. Still, Roma and especially TPOTD probably lost because it pisses off some people. Even if they’re probably the movies with most top choices in the ballots, there’s also people hating it, while the winners was crowd pleasing projects that maybe didn’t get most top votes but are consistently high in the ballots without any backlash.
 

More than being hugely succesful and good, Oppenheimer is about to win because there’s no strong discourse around it, you hardly can find someone having a big problem with it. Other strong contenders like PT have a clear portion of people that despise it, or KOTFM that touch in a very sensitive topic that will never be a consensus. 

Edited March 10 by ThomasNicole

[leoh]

5 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Yeah it needs to be a good movie in many eyes. But above that, it should be a movie that doesn’t offend much people, especially now with the preferential ballot.
 

Which is why i think Roma lost to Green Book, or Power Of The Dog lost to Coda. They’re all somewhat decent movies (to most people), but the losers are clearly the better ones. Still, Roma and especially TPOTD probably lost because it pisses off some people. Even if they’re probably the movies with most top choices in the ballots, there’s also people hating it, while the winners was crowd pleasing projects that maybe didn’t get most top votes but are consistently high in the ballots without any backlash.
 

More than being hugely succesful and good, Oppenheimer is about to win because there’s no strong discourse around it, you hardly can find someone having a big problem with it. Other strong contenders like PT have a clear portion of people that despise it, or KOTFM that touch in a very sensitive topic that will never be a consensus. 

 

yeah politics plays an import role for academy voters right now, sometimes they bow down (like when they nominated black Panther for best picture) but sometimes they are just stubborn (like Gosling nomination but no Margot Robbie one)

[Borobudur]

Dune 2 is again, doing similar business as Oppenheimer in second weekend, except Oppenheimer is a summer release which give it an unchallenged upper hand during mid-week. Hope Spring break can give some mid-week boost to Dune.  

[dallas]

Wow, KFP4 is doing a lot better than I anticipated. I was expecting a $40-45M high end based on presales and its looking to do $60M! I'm happy to see the box office succeed above all else. April looks a little dry but that at least bodes well for the March openers' legs. 

[AniNate]

It's hard to imagine how anyone could be offended by Roma.

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, AniNate said:

It's hard to imagine how anyone could be offended by Roma.

Similar discussion to Flower Moon, white pov to treat about indigenous story and historical violence. I know some people that absolutely despise it. 
 

Oppenheimer to be fair had some share of discussion about it’s pov, but it just feels harder to criticize it since it’s addressing internal politics. 
 

[babz06]

1 hour ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

I think April will be filled with mostly low key hits. No massive numbers but solid performers. I’m feeling very good about Challengers, Civil War should get some business from curiosity about its subject matter, Monkey Man also looks like a decent sleeper hit. Abigail and First Omen also should provide some support from horror.

Monkey Man could do Beekeeper numbers. 
Cival War seems like a harder sell so I’m not sure about that. 
I was originally predicting Challengers might do 20-30m but it has potential to be bigger if it can draw female audiences.

Edited March 10 by babz06