Weekend Thread (5/17-19/2024) | WEEKEND ESTIMATES: $35M for IF, $12M for Strangers, $2.85M for Back to Black, $26M for Apes

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited May 18 by kayumanggi

[Eric is Quiet]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I think it'll end at around 198M-199M, which would be a bummer. WB should do a rerelease before pulling it out from theaters.

I actually want it to stay around here. Because in a couple weeks, we will have a scenario where Godzilla X Kong is the biggest Monsterverse movie WW, Kong Skull Island is the biggest OS, and Godzilla 2014 is the biggest DOM. Three separate movies have their own franchise records. That has to be a first I am assuming

[elhassane31]

is Apes done for?

[Eric is Quiet]

21 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Would get to 26.2 if it follows Guardians 3’s third weekend.

[Eric is Quiet]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[elhassane31]

8 minutes ago, Eric the IF said:

Would get to 26.2 if it follows Guardians 3’s third weekend.

is that good enough for a 400m finish? I believe that's the break even point

[kayumanggi]

8 minutes ago, Eric the IF said:

Would get to 26.2 if it follows Guardians 3’s third weekend.

 

26.2M would be sweet. WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES did 20.9M on its second weekend back in 2017. 

[Liiviig 1998]

Strong hold for Apes. Expected high 5s to 6 for Friday 

25m+ weekend.

Let's go 160M+ .

 

Edited May 18 by Liiviig 1998

[Flopped]

Does Ryan Reynolds have a single memorable movie in his filmography? A movie that you think about after you watch it, or a movie that you feel like rewatching down the line? 

Maaaaaaybe The Proposal? That seems to still get some love. I really think that's the only one? 

[Unfitclock]

Why are the trades acting like this is a horrible opening for if because I can’t think of the last time an original family film opened to 30 million plus 

[Derpity]

2 minutes ago, Flopped said:

Does Ryan Reynolds have a single memorable movie in his filmography? A movie that you think about after you watch it, or a movie that you feel like rewatching down the line? 

Maaaaaaybe The Proposal? That seems to still get some love. I really think that's the only one? 

 

For me, the only two that I would consider rewatching are Deadpool and Definitely, Maybe. Other than that, a whole lot of junk.

[AniNate]

Love them or hate them the Deadpool movies (and character) are definitely memorable 

[Flopped]

17 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Strong hold for Apes. Expected high 5s to 6 for Friday 

25m+ weekend.

Let's go 160M+ .

 

 

Rooting for the Apes even though them casting a Tom Ford model and dirtying her cheeks a little bit really took me out of the movie. 

[Speedorito]

1 minute ago, Unfitclock said:

Why are the trades acting like this is a horrible opening for if because I can’t think of the last time an original family film opened to 30 million plus 

Because they/Paramount were expecting 40M+. Opening slightly bigger than the lowest opening in Pixar’s entire history despite being the first family film in two months is a hollow victory after lofty projections. The budget was also 110M. They probably thought the combination of kids/families and adult Ryan Reynolds fans would cause it to open bigger. They just need to scale back their expectations in a post-pandemic world.

[Borobudur]

2 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

Why are the trades acting like this is a horrible opening for if because I can’t think of the last time an original family film opened to 30 million plus 

After a true 8.5m Friday, the movie is looking to finish for 30m+ OW. Considering the meh reception from critics that killed some of momentum, the tracking of 40m isn't something ridiculous.

 

48 minutes ago, elhassane31 said:

is Apes done for?

It could avoid 60% second weekend drop after an inflated OW. That doesn't sound like a "done" for a B cinemascore movie. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Don't all the Apes sequels have steep drops for the 2nd weekend? I actually think that Friday number is good.

[AnthonyJPHer]

Looks like Panda did about 200k Friday. About a 51 percent drop from last Friday. Which honestly, I thought it would drop harsher in the face of IF.

[vale9001]

Entertainment market is crazy, technology can really change everything in few years.

 

10-15 years ago movies were booming and we started to have a 1B movie every month of the year, while everyone was saying music market was dying.

 

Now concerts market is booming more than ever. Taylor Swift tour is coming for 2B dollars at the box office (we have to hope at least the next Avatar can make It (😅). Kids buy again vinyls (vinyls!) and music stars generate from these 50-70 dollars albums in a week more than how much blockbusters are doing this year in their OW 😭. The book market is booming too and young people thanks to the booktok phenomenon buy books with a new volume not seen in their target since 2007 (the year last Harry Potter was released).

 

Seems like the digital born generations are asking for physicals things again so they can share them with their community of fans- stans etc ...something the cinema on theaters can't do It. 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 18 by vale9001

[elhassane31]

1 minute ago, Borobudur said:

It could avoid 60% second weekend drop after an inflated OW. That doesn't sound like a "done" for a B cinemascore movie. 

Yeah but it costs like 160m right? Needs 400m to break even right? How is it gonna get there with a potential 160m domestic finish?