Weekend Thread (5/17-19/2024) | WEEKEND ESTIMATES: $35M for IF, $12M for Strangers, $2.85M for Back to Black, $26M for Apes

[titanic2187]

I seriously doubt that 25% Sunday drop for Apes’. Actual should come closer to 25m instead of 26m. Either way, the movie prove itself that enjoying better WOM that people realised. 

[Pinacolada]

Honestly a good DOM opening for IF

 

The problem is I believe it opened in like 90% of all markets this weekend and only made 20m. WW opening weekend of 55m. Feels like doubling its budget, 110m budget 220m ending gross, is the high end. Unless I'm missing something 

[budice]

Garfield all set to mow down IF next week, congrats on IF making a couple extra mil.

[kayumanggi]

18 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Yeh looks like Sony were right to release this in cinemas. Small opening, but decent legs, 4x the budget and then digital then Netflix. 

 

And since the run isn't even done, this might end up with 5× or 6× the budget. I've heard it's terrible, but that's a win for Sony. 😅

[kayumanggi]

Rest of May 2024:

 

05.24
FURIOSA: A MAD MAX SAGA
THE GARFIELD MOVIE
SIGHT

 

05.31
EZRA
HAIKYU!! THE DUMPSTER BATTLE
SUMMER CAMP

[Krissykins]

4 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

And since the run isn't even done, this might end up with 5× or 6× the budget. I've heard it's terrible, but that's a win for Sony. 😅

True! I just realised it had a $7m worldwide weekend, so probably closer to 6x. 

[kayumanggi]

Universal being Universal

 

 

[Cmasterclay]

Seeing 14 100m movies by end of this summer compared to 18 last year. Going to be tough to make up especially with Karate Kid moving off this year, but September to December is just loaded enough it's possible to get close, especially if they add a surprise release or two.

[AnthonyJPHer]

2 hours ago, AniNate said:

Decent hold for Panda given the theater loss, but still pretty much locked to fall short of $200mil now

under 200m is pretty certain unless it pulls godly holds, which isn’t likely. But tbh, it didn’t utterly collapse this weekend and it held better than Migration did. Lower raw gross, but a better percentage drop. Whether or not it holds well against Garfield is another matter, but I think this shows it wasn’t just lack of competition that led to its success. Otherwise I think that the drop would have been substantially worse. It could utterly collapse next weekend though, or actuals for this weekend could come in lower, but we will see.

[AniNate]

Ten more movies this year with the potential to outgross John Wick 4 imo. Last year only had half of that from May 19 on.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

On 5/17/2024 at 12:02 AM, MysteryMovieMogul said:

I have a feeling IF is going to be a film critics don't like because of a weird dislike of Ryan Reynolds but audiences enjoy because they don't actually dislike Ryan Reynolds.

I think it's going to exceed $35 million, but I don't bet on the box office for a reason.

There's a chance my prediction can still be correct!

[AniNate]

That IF international estimate doesn't seem right, it opened pretty solid in France last week. But it also seems way too high for the apparent May 14 date it was updated on The-Numbers.

 

Japan doesn't open for a month and no China date yet, so that might be holding it back a little. 

 

 

Edited May 19 by AniNate

[Cmasterclay]

That May 31st weekend being a total dud writeoff in the middle of summer is just totally crazy,  I know weekend after MD isn't the biggest but they couldn't even get a 15m opener off one of the streaming services for it? Malpractice. June 21st weekend is malpractice too tbh even if I'm personally excited for the releases. Can't throw away summer weekends like this.

[AniNate]

Post MD wasn't even a dud last year. That was when Across the Spiderverse opened.

 

But the main thing I don't understand is why Disney isn't making Young Woman a wider release. Probably could do some decent bank with a campaign that leans into the sports of it all with all these playoff games going on.

 

 

Edited May 19 by AniNate

[babz06]

14 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

That May 31st weekend being a total dud writeoff in the middle of summer is just totally crazy,  I know weekend after MD isn't the biggest but they couldn't even get a 15m opener off one of the streaming services for it? Malpractice. June 21st weekend is malpractice too tbh even if I'm personally excited for the releases. Can't throw away summer weekends like this.

This is honestly just crazy to me that couldn’t throw one of those previously steaming movies on those dates. For example, why did Beverly Hills Cop 4 (releasing July 3) go to Netflix?  Eddie Murphy is a big star. 

Edited May 19 by babz06

[Speedorito]

Damn if Paramount/the trades had just said 35M+ instead of 40M+ they could’ve touted it as a win instead of dealing with all the doom and gloom in the industry this weekend. Not sure how it’ll fare against Garfield in the coming weeks because that film is eating IF’s lunch internationally.

 

The Fall Guy is doing surprisingly poorly internationally.

 

Apes is having decent legs and hopefully it can survive next weekend. It’ll probably do well enough for a sequel with same director, and could increase if they tweak the things people had gripes about.

[AniNate]

Netflix hates movie theaters.

 

Don't even think that's an exaggeration, pretty sure Ted Sarandos actually does hate them and is trying to crush them.

[Unfitclock]

If should have good legs overseas hopefully so we shall see

[Unfitclock]

By the way where did luiz see if made 20 million this weekend because I can’t find anywhere that it says that box office report haven’t posted it yet 

[JimmyB]

Did Paramount not try promoting IF overseas?  That's an insanely low number.  I see IF only did 394K in South Korea.  20m in 58 markets that includes Mexico, Australia and UK.