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Eric is Quiet

Weekend Thread (6/21-23)

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https://deadline.com/2024/06/box-office-inside-out-2-record-bikeriders-1235980501/

 

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Whoever wrote that the theatrical business is dead, may want to run a correction for Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2 is potentially headed to a historic second weekend for an animated movie, topping Illumination/Universal’s Super Mario Bros Movie‘s $92.3M.

 

Rival projections see $95M for the second frame of the Kelsey Mann-directed sequel, while insiders see $85M-$90M+ after a $28M-$30M Friday at 4,400 locations. Today’s til alone will propel the sequel to become the highest grossing movie YTD leaving Dune: Part Two in the dust ($282.1M domestic).

At that level, Inside Out 2 looks to post the best second weekend for any Disney animated release, besting Frozen 2‘s $85.9M and Incredibles 2‘s $80.3M.

 

Sony’s Bad Boys: Ride or Die holds onto to second place with $16M, -53%, for a running total of $144.1M. That hold is in the vicinity of Bad Boys for Life‘s third weekend of -48%. By Sunday the Will Smith and Martin Lawrence fourthquel will be trailing about $4M behind Bad Boys for Life at the same point in time. Friday’s take is $4.6M at 3,781 venues.

 

Third goes to Regency/Focus Features’ The Bikeriders at 2,641 theaters with a $3.8M Friday, including $1.45M advance screenings and Thursday previews for a $9M opening. Focus covered 50% of the $30M-$40M production cost and is on the hook for P&A. 

 

Sony’s The Garfield Movie at 3,013 theaters is seeing a fifth Friday of $1.3M and fifth weekend of $4M, -16% and a running total by Sunday of $85.5M.

 

20th Century Studios/Disney’s The Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes at 2,410 theaters is posting a seventh Friday of $1M, seventh weekend of $3.75M, -32%, and running total of $164.5M. As we reported, the Wes Ball directed new iteration already surpassed Matt Reeves’ previous chapter, War for the Planet of the Apes which ended its U.S./Canada run at $146.88M.

 

Outside the top 5 is Vertical Entertainment’s widest release ever, the Russell Crowe genre movie The Exorcism, financed by Miramax, at 2,240 theaters. Slammed with a 32% Rotten Tomatoes critics score and 50% audience, the movie is looking at an $800K Friday, $1.85M 3-day per industry estimates. I hear in regards to the economics of the pic for Vertical, it’s a low threshold, nothing to lose their shirt over. I understand those polled believed it was a sequel to Crowe’s genre movie from last year, The Pope’s Exorcist, however, he’s not playing a priest in this movie, but a troubled actor.

 

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29M Friday if IO2 follows Dory's second weekend: 91.2M

If it follows Incredibles 2's second weekend: 96.5M

If it follows Toy Story 4's second weekend: 101.3M

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If Inside Out 2's weekend jumps are like Incredibles 2's (48% on Friday, 30% on Saturday, -21% on Sunday), it will make a $96.7m 2nd weekend. So that leaves a lot of room for guessing. Anywhere from $85m-$96m I think could happen. 🤷‍♂️

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it has exceeded my expectations. I would have been ok with low 80s 2nd weekend considering so much demand has been burned with mid week holiday. But its a juggernaut and so keeps chugging along. 

 

That said I would wait for evening update for Volde/Charlie. Early number for holdovers could be off. 

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I mean Barbie was a bigger movie and made 93M last year and on top of that its first weekend was a bit deflated because there were not enough showtimes for it due to Oppenheimer and other summer movies. So because of this, I think it will do 85M+. Also it is following Dory quite similarly. Monday-Thursday drop. However, probably I am wrong and it will do 100M+

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3 minutes ago, Eric is Anxious said:

29M Friday if IO2 follows Dory's second weekend: 91.2M

If it follows Incredibles 2's second weekend: 96.5M

If it follows Toy Story 4's second weekend: 101.3M

Toy Story 4's 2nd weekend ended close to July 4th it probably won't be quite that high for Inside Out 2. Toy Story 4 broke the Father's Day weekend release trend.

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3 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

Slight chance IO2 blocks A Quiet Place: Day One from debuting at #1 next week?

Maybe. Maybe if Inside Out 2 has a 3rd weekend over $60m. 🤷‍♂️

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20th Century Studios/Disney’s The Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes at 2,410 theaters is posting a seventh Friday of $1M, seventh weekend of $3.75M, -32%, and running total of $164.5M. As we reported, the Wes Ball directed new iteration already surpassed Matt Reeves’ previous chapter, War for the Planet of the Apes which ended its U.S./Canada run at $146.88M.

 

https://deadline.com/2024/06/box-office-inside-out-2-record-bikeriders-1235980501/

 

Fantastic for the Apes! 180M Domestic and 400M WW is possible.

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5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

it has exceeded my expectations. I would have been ok with low 80s 2nd weekend considering so much demand has been burned with mid week holiday. But its a juggernaut and so keeps chugging along. 

 

That said I would wait for evening update for Volde/Charlie. Early number for holdovers could be off. 

So ready for early Deadline to be early Deadline and Charlie comes out saying we're getting 31M or something lol

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6 minutes ago, druv10 said:

20th Century Studios/Disney’s The Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes at 2,410 theaters is posting a seventh Friday of $1M, seventh weekend of $3.75M, -32%, and running total of $164.5M. As we reported, the Wes Ball directed new iteration already surpassed Matt Reeves’ previous chapter, War for the Planet of the Apes which ended its U.S./Canada run at $146.88M.

 

https://deadline.com/2024/06/box-office-inside-out-2-record-bikeriders-1235980501/

 

Fantastic for the Apes! 180M Domestic and 400M WW is possible.

Not sure I can see it going that high. Guardians 3 had similar great late legs, and following that film takes us to 170M. It does have less in the way of direct competition granted at the same point in time, and it'll likely get another boost on Deadpool 3's weekend, but I don't know if that's really enough for an extra 10 million. Maybe at most like 5. Still great results either way of course.

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9 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Maybe. Maybe if Inside Out 2 has a 3rd weekend over $60m. 🤷‍♂️

I thought Quiet Place looking around 50M, which is in line with the previous installments

 

I’m not expecting it to open at #2, but IO2 possible doing close to 90M gives it a small chance.

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1.45m for The Bikeriders.... could be good for teens OW?? 

 

If it's not frontloaded for some reason of course. Sales look good to me for tonight

 

Northman had 1.35m and opened to 12.2m OW. I cannot see The Bikeriders having a worse IM than Northman

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