AniNate Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 Now that I think about it the new academy rules are probably what IFC is thinking about for Ghostlight. Doing the bare minimum exhibition requirements now so it qualifies and then saving a marketing budget for if it ends up getting awards attention. Not thrilled about it but I guess that's still not as self defeating as Robot Dreams' strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyB Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 I find the last few pages interesting. The tweet raises good questions....AniNate and Cmasterclay both make good points. IO2 isnt doing well, it's doing AMAZING. Fly Me to the Moon or Horizon bombing wont be the death of cinema or death of original movies but it is a good debate what do we expect something like Fly Me to the Moon to gross. Tatum and Johansson are big movie stars but the concept seems like a hard sell. Checking my local Cinemark, the early access July 5th screening does not have one ticket sold. I know it's Empire City but he thinks MaXXXine and LongLegs will be hits in that tweet. IDK, about that. I agree, that its great these films are going to be in theaters but do theaters need variety? I used to think they do. But, these last couple years Im not sure anymore. The top two movies this weekend will be 80% of the entire weekend box office. Again, looking at my local Cinemark Bad Boys and Inside Out have so many showtimes its crazy and it makes sense that they do to meet demand. Maybe, the box office is just going to be more and more top heavy but as long as we still get a movie like LongLegs in 2,000 theaters it doesnt matter. https://www.cinemark.com/TicketSeatMap/?TheaterId=260&ShowtimeId=621810&CinemarkMovieId=98796&Showtime=2024-07-05T19:00:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 What are the top 3 contenders for movies that could possibly beat IO2 for the 2024 crown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan C Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 (edited) 4 minutes ago, JimmyB said: I find the last few pages interesting. The tweet raises good questions....AniNate and Cmasterclay both make good points. IO2 isnt doing well, it's doing AMAZING. Fly Me to the Moon or Horizon bombing wont be the death of cinema or death of original movies but it is a good debate what do we expect something like Fly Me to the Moon to gross. Tatum and Johansson are big movie stars but the concept seems like a hard sell. Checking my local Cinemark, the early access July 5th screening does not have one ticket sold. I know it's Empire City but he thinks MaXXXine and LongLegs will be hits in that tweet. IDK, about that. I agree, that its great these films are going to be in theaters but do theaters need variety? I used to think they do. But, these last couple years Im not sure anymore. The top two movies this weekend will be 80% of the entire weekend box office. Again, looking at my local Cinemark Bad Boys and Inside Out have so many showtimes its crazy and it makes sense that they do to meet demand. Maybe, the box office is just going to be more and more top heavy but as long as we still get a movie like LongLegs in 2,000 theaters it doesnt matter. https://www.cinemark.com/TicketSeatMap/?TheaterId=260&ShowtimeId=621810&CinemarkMovieId=98796&Showtime=2024-07-05T19:00:00 I actually do think both Longlegs and MaXXXine have a chance to somewhat breakout. Not to the levels of something like M3GAN or Smile, but enough to get more people who otherwise wouldn't be interested. Maybe it's because of just how strong the trailers have been for both movies, but something about those two seem to point to them at least doing better than expected. I'm sure Empire City is thinking both of these movies will open to highly unrealistic numbers, but I won't deny that they seem set to overperform a bit. Trying to think optimistically here. Edited June 23 by Ryan C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noctis Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 7 minutes ago, grey ghost said: What are the top 3 contenders for movies that could possibly beat IO2 for the 2024 crown? None that I can see. Deadpool, and the Joker will both do $1b comfortably IMO. Moana 2, if good, has a reasonable enough chance. But IO2 is looking to do over $1.5b. Can't see any film beating that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 I'd say that IO2 has an 80-90% chance of beating Barbie domestically. Next up is Jurassic World. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickiland16 Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 3 hours ago, Ryan C said: A bit out of topic but we don't talk enough about how big A Quiet Place 3 opening will be if those are the numbers for the prequel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickiland16 Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 32 minutes ago, grey ghost said: What are the top 3 contenders for movies that could possibly beat IO2 for the 2024 crown? At this point...none? Lmao. Domestically maybe if Deadpool opening is closer to Infinity War than the first Avengers movie but I have veeeryyy high doubts on that happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 36 minutes ago, grey ghost said: What are the top 3 contenders for movies that could possibly beat IO2 for the 2024 crown? No movie will even come close. Question is will we have another 500m grosser. Let us see how Deadpool goes next month. Other movies include Joker, Moana and Mufasa. All of them could miss that target as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan C Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 36 minutes ago, grey ghost said: What are the top 3 contenders for movies that could possibly beat IO2 for the 2024 crown? I don't think anything is taking down Inside Out 2 either domestically or worldwide for the rest of the year. You would have to bet on Deadpool and Wolverine opening as high as Spider-Man: No Way Home and you would have to bet on that film having an internal multipler closer to 3x than 2.5x. There's a really slim chance that happens, but I think D&W will only beat Inside Out 2 in terms of opening weekends. Not overall domestic or worldwide gross. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ringedmortality Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 42 minutes ago, grey ghost said: What are the top 3 contenders for movies that could possibly beat IO2 for the 2024 crown? 6 minutes ago, Mickiland16 said: At this point...none? Lmao. Domestically maybe if Deadpool opening is closer to Infinity War than the first Avengers movie but I have veeeryyy high doubts on that happening. 5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: No movie will even come close. Question is will we have another 500m grosser. Let us see how Deadpool goes next month. Other movies include Joker, Moana and Mufasa. All of them could miss that target as well. Member when people said this after Mario 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Migs20242 Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 Amazing 2nd weekend for Inside Out 2. Expect another strong hold for 3rd weekend. 70-80 million for 3rd weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Migs20242 Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 43 minutes ago, grey ghost said: What are the top 3 contenders for movies that could possibly beat IO2 for the 2024 crown? None sadly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avatree Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 crazy weekend for inside out, is that 2nd best ever hold for a $100m opening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Train Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 2 minutes ago, Migs20242 said: Amazing 2nd weekend for Inside Out 2. Expect another strong hold for 3rd weekend. 70-80 million for 3rd weekend. 20% drop? No chance. Not even the Avatar movies could do >70m, SW7 is the only movie to do it and got boosted by New Years holiday. Probably 65m if I had to guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PenguinHyphy Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 50 minutes ago, JimmyB said: I find the last few pages interesting. The tweet raises good questions....AniNate and Cmasterclay both make good points. IO2 isnt doing well, it's doing AMAZING. Fly Me to the Moon or Horizon bombing wont be the death of cinema or death of original movies but it is a good debate what do we expect something like Fly Me to the Moon to gross. Tatum and Johansson are big movie stars but the concept seems like a hard sell. Checking my local Cinemark, the early access July 5th screening does not have one ticket sold. I know it's Empire City but he thinks MaXXXine and LongLegs will be hits in that tweet. IDK, about that. I agree, that its great these films are going to be in theaters but do theaters need variety? I used to think they do. But, these last couple years Im not sure anymore. The top two movies this weekend will be 80% of the entire weekend box office. Again, looking at my local Cinemark Bad Boys and Inside Out have so many showtimes its crazy and it makes sense that they do to meet demand. Maybe, the box office is just going to be more and more top heavy but as long as we still get a movie like LongLegs in 2,000 theaters it doesnt matter. https://www.cinemark.com/TicketSeatMap/?TheaterId=260&ShowtimeId=621810&CinemarkMovieId=98796&Showtime=2024-07-05T19:00:00 It appears to have the same tone as Hidden Figures, which grossed approximately $170,000,000 in America. If it does happen to tank, it is not because the concept is a hard sell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 Just now, PenguinHyphy said: It appears to have the same tone as Hidden Figures, which grossed approximately $170,000,000 in America. If it does happen to tank, it is not because the concept is a hard sell They're not the same thing really. Hidden Figures is kind of a biopic and Fly Me to the Moon is a romcom. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan C Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 4 minutes ago, Bob Train said: 20% drop? No chance. Not even the Avatar movies could do >70m, SW7 is the only movie to do it and got boosted by New Years holiday. Probably 65m if I had to guess. At the low end, it should be around $60M and $70M would be at the high end. No more than that, but I also wouldn't bet against this movie completely surprising us again. If it somehow does that, then we're talking $700M+ and Top Gun: Maverick territory. Literally the only detriment that Inside Out 2 has going into next weekend is that it is gonna lose most of its IMAX and PLFs to A Quiet Place: Day One. Outside of that, it has everything else working in its favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Train Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 11 minutes ago, ringedmortality said: Member when people said this after Mario Thing is, Mario and $575m DOM and $1.3b WW was significantly lower than IO2 $650-$700m DOM and $1.5-$1.6b WW. So to beat IO2, a movie would need to crack top 10 all-time DOM and WW. I think IO2 OW record will go down too, it's likely DP3 beats it and Joker 2 is possible too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PenguinHyphy Posted June 23 Share Posted June 23 Horizon’s box office is not contingent upon its reviews. It is going for the same audience as Sound of Freedom, and they do not give a shit about reviews or, frankly, Hollywood. People outside of that audience were never going to see it unless it was some huge Oscar player. If it opens as terribly as pre sales suggest, Cannes is not responsible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
