Weekend Numbers [June 28-30, 2024] | Estimates | 57.4M INSIDE OUT II | 53.0M AQP: DAY ONE | 11.0M HORIZON: AAS - CHAPTER 1

[narniadis]

16 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

This is going to be a awesome weekend thread.  No down the rabbit hole doom discussions about the Box Office  at least there should not be.

Eh, the Cinema Scores will probably cause some worries, especially if QP doesn't perform as well (not saying, just knowing how BOTs behavior is.) But I am sure someone will be kicking the Bikeriders failure as another "sign of the end" since QP isn't a fresh original making money. 

[Ryan C]

Toy Story 4's second weekend is probably going to be the perfect comp for Inside Out 2 this weekend. This weekend in 2024 is when Toy Story 4 was in it's second weekend five years ago. 

 

If IO2 follows the same trajectory as TS4, it'll hit $57.57M for the weekend. 

 

Also, this probably won't happen, but if IO2 were to follow the same trajectory as Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory, it would be at just between $51-$52M for the weekend. 

 

Hopefully it either plays more like TS4 or even stronger than what's expected. 

[cinema pal]

16% from top critics for Horizon is brutal. Looks like some kind of vendetta)

[titanic2187]

I am leaning Io2 to three peat although the race is much closer than we realised. AQP seem to off a great start but the audience reaction is worrisome with 70% of VA. Not sure if trailer oversold its action because many find it artsy and slow burn. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

11m for IO2 according to Volde. Which translates to high 50s weekend even with similar multi as last week. I think its going to be close between the 2 movies. Let me see how Friday is looking for Day One. 

Hopefully Thursday is at least higher than Toy Story 4 on the same date as it would keep $60M+ in play (not that high 50s are bad ofc).

[kayumanggi]

10 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

The CS's for the two movies are going to be interesting. Horizon at 67% Audience and QP at 73%. Yeesh. I hope QP  Day One is another KOTPA where it is just thowing people off a little.

 

Sometimes, I find it difficult to trust cinemascores anymore.

[Tokugennumataka]

Looks like IO2 ends second week with 412M in the bank. Considering a 56M weekend and how the other few animated mega grossers performed in pre July 4th weekend:

I2 - 214.4 / 46.4 = 4.62x = ~671M
FD - 155.9 / 41.8 = 3.73x = ~621M
TS4 - 255 / 59.7 = 4.27x = ~651M
TS3 - 156.2 / 30.3 = 5.16x = ~701M
SM: ATSV - 53.2 / 12 = 4.43x = ~660M
IO - 223.7 / 52.3 = 4.28x = ~652M

 

[Migs20242]

3 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Looks like IO2 ends second week with 412M in the bank. Considering a 56M weekend and how the other few animated mega grossers performed in pre July 4th weekend:

I2 - 214.4 / 46.4 = 4.62x = ~671M
FD - 155.9 / 41.8 = 3.73x = ~621M
TS4 - 255 / 59.7 = 4.27x = ~651M
TS3 - 156.2 / 30.3 = 5.16x = ~701M
SM: ATSV - 53.2 / 12 = 4.43x = ~660M
IO - 223.7 / 52.3 = 4.28x = ~652M

 

We might also expect a holiday boost this Wednesday and Thursday.

[Ryan C]

6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I am leaning Io2 to three peat although the race is much closer than we realised. AQP seem to off a great start but the audience reaction is worrisome with 70% of VA. Not sure if trailer oversold its action because many find it artsy and slow burn. 

 

70% is a worrisome number, but also remember that the first Quiet Place got an 83% VA rating. Higher than Day One's VA but below Part II's 92% VA rating. 

 

Unless the Cinemascore comes in below a B, then we shouldn't panic yet. Like emoviefan just said, it could be another Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes situation and with how much Day One is looking to overperform compared to tracking, we gotta wait to at least the end of next weekend to make judgements on if the supposed weak audience reception will hurt its legs domestically.

[Tokugennumataka]

13 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

Toy Story 4's second weekend is probably going to be the perfect comp for Inside Out 2 this weekend. This weekend in 2024 is when Toy Story 4 was in it's second weekend five years ago. 

 

If IO2 follows the same trajectory as TS4, it'll hit $57.57M for the weekend. 

 

Also, this probably won't happen, but if IO2 were to follow the same trajectory as Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory, it would be at just between $51-$52M for the weekend. 

 

Hopefully it either plays more like TS4 or even stronger than what's expected. 

Besides that, TS4 from day 7 looks like the most ideal comp for IO2 D14 onwards (11.4M Thu). TS4 made 255M from that point onwards, which would give ~667M final for IO. 

[Speedorito]

11 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

70% is a worrisome number, but also remember that the first Quiet Place got an 83% VA rating. Higher than Day One's VA but below Part II's 92% VA rating. 

 

Unless the Cinemascore comes in below a B, then we shouldn't panic yet. Like emoviefan just said, it could be another Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes situation and with how much Day One is looking to overperform compared to tracking, we gotta wait to at least the end of next weekend to make judgements on if the supposed weak audience reception will hurt its legs domestically.

The first Quiet Place came out in 2018. That was before verified audience scores were implemented.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Paramount seems to put out decent movies , if only they had responsible budgets they be in better shape.

[Ryan C]

7 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

The first Quiet Place came out in 2018. That was before verified audience scores were implemented.

 

Ok, nevermind. Thanks for the correction. 

 

Still, hopefully that doesn't stop what seems to be a $50M+ weekend

[Insomnia]

Yeah if the Thursday number is indeed $11M then Inside Out 2 is definitely slowing down. Nothing close to bad or anything, just slowing down a bit.

 

Perhaps the Friday and Saturday jumps will be bigger than expected though and we'll still see a $60M weekend in the end. But for now I'd think it'll be closer to $55M.

Edited Friday at 05:29 AM by Insomnia

[Migs20242]

2 minutes ago, Insomnia said:

Yeah if the Thursday number is indeed $11M then Inside Out 2 is definitely slowing down. Nothing close to bad or anything, just slowing down a bit.

 

Perhaps the Friday and Saturday jumps will be bigger than expected though and we'll still see a $60M weekend in the end. But for now I'd think it'll be closer to $55M.

Friday - 16-18+ million

Saturday - 26-28+ million

Sunday - 19-21 million

 

Projected IO2 3rd weekend: 61-67 million

[TalismanRing]

41 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

Toy Story 4's second weekend is probably going to be the perfect comp for Inside Out 2 this weekend. This weekend in 2024 is when Toy Story 4 was in it's second weekend five years ago. 

 

If IO2 follows the same trajectory as TS4, it'll hit $57.57M for the weekend. 

 

Also, this probably won't happen, but if IO2 were to follow the same trajectory as Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory, it would be at just between $51-$52M for the weekend. 

 

Hopefully it either plays more like TS4 or even stronger than what's expected. 

If it followed the same trajectory

 

TS4  Wed: $11.950 --> $59.7m

IO2  Wed: $12.808 --> 63.99m

IO2 will probably have a sharper Thur drop b/c of loss of PLFs but could have a larger Friday increase since it already had a better hold and increase the previous week which had a lot of spill off and a holiday.

 

EDIT: Completely missed supposed $11m Thur #s

Edited Friday at 05:36 AM by TalismanRing

[Ryan C]

I actually find it pretty funny that there's gonna be a range of films that open in 2024 between $55M-$59M.

 

You got Bad Boys: Ride or Die ($56.5M), Kung Fu Panda 4 ($57.9M), Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes ($58.4M), and probably A Quiet Place Day One (judging by early preview numbers I would say $55M+). 

 

It's like you got that range of openers, you have to two $80M openers with Dune: Part Two and Godzilla x Kong, and then there's a massive gap until you get to $154.2M for Inside Out 2. 

 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Lot of folks at this 10:30 AQP showing. Granted it is an LA showing so it is gonna be inflated but still a great sign.

 

also, I bought an AMC cocktail. Pray for me.

[nguyenkhoi282]

32 minutes ago, Insomnia said:

Yeah if the Thursday number is indeed $11M then Inside Out 2 is definitely slowing down. Nothing close to bad or anything, just slowing down a bit.

 

Perhaps the Friday and Saturday jumps will be bigger than expected though and we'll still see a $60M weekend in the end. But for now I'd think it'll be closer to $55M.

Slowing down if nothing previews on Thursday, but there's QP so I think it's merely a drop in ATP. 

[Migs20242]

43 minutes ago, Insomnia said:

Yeah if the Thursday number is indeed $11M then Inside Out 2 is definitely slowing down. Nothing close to bad or anything, just slowing down a bit.

 

Perhaps the Friday and Saturday jumps will be bigger than expected though and we'll still see a $60M weekend in the end. But for now I'd think it'll be closer to $55M.

that's very off. IO2 $60-70 million 3rd weekend is on play.