Weekday Numbers [Jul 29 - Aug 01, 2024] | Wednesday | 18.05M DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE | 3.89M TWISTERS | 2.39M DESPICABLE ME IV | 1.37M INSIDE OUT II

[ZattMurdock]

ZattCoopock

[AgentCooper315]

2 hours ago, Cooper Legion said:

“Know each other” and “some comments on Reddit out of thousands happened to be replaying to each other” are maybe slightly different. I’m not really sure what the point is of making so many comments about “guy x said so and so on this other site.”   
 

And yeah with great reception DS2 would have likely 40-42 or so * like 5.5-5.8

Fwiw I still fondly remember that short but intellectually titillating discussion. I learned a lot from your method to calculate 6 day OW. It helped set my up on my own exhilarating journey of BO analysis. 

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, AgentCooper315 said:

Fwiw I still fondly remember that short but intellectually titillating discussion. I learned a lot from your method to calculate 6 day OW. It helped set my up on my own exhilarating journey of BO analysis. 

 

Cooper & Cooper

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Reading these last few pages

 

[AgentCooper315]

2 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Just FYI u/AgentCooper315 reads BOT forums he just doesn't have an account

 

And also @charlie Jatinder he says he wants you to update the admission count Google Spreadsheet

 

23 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Well, I didn’t say Agent Cooper was a rando, I just don’t know who is. Considering how often you cite him it just felt like you could be him.

 

And excuse me. Wants?

Not my words!

 

 

And hey, now you do know me!! A little bit. 

[AgentCooper315]

Getting a bit back on track, I think the weekend is headed for the 85-90m range. Personally leaning towards 85m or so for about 60% drop. 
 

For comparison Homecoming and Lion King (releasing roughly around the same time) both dropped over 60% before recovering. So even if this drops higher than we hope it can still recover. 

[HummingLemon496]

7 minutes ago, AgentCooper315 said:

Getting a bit back on track, I think the weekend is headed for the 85-90m range. Personally leaning towards 85m or so for about 60% drop. 
 

For comparison Homecoming and Lion King (releasing roughly around the same time) both dropped over 60% before recovering. So even if this drops higher than we hope it can still recover. 

There's also Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018) which dropped 61.6% on second weekend, but had 2.86x legs, which would give DPW a $604M DOM total. 

 

Speaking of which, Lion King 2019 had some pretty blegh legs for a kids/family movie during peak summer. With better WOM like Aladdin, it would've made $700M for around 72-73M admissions.

Edited July 31 by HummingLemon496

[Ryan C]

4 minutes ago, AgentCooper315 said:

Getting a bit back on track, I think the weekend is headed for the 85-90m range. Personally leaning towards 85m or so for about 60% drop. 
 

For comparison Homecoming and Lion King (releasing roughly around the same time) both dropped over 60% before recovering. So even if this drops higher than we hope it can still recover. 

 

I'm actually willing to bet that the drop will be lower than 60%. 

 

Even though the right comps for Deadpool and Wolverine would be the July MCU movies, almost all of them had a reason why they dropped as large as they did beyond just opening in the summer. 

 

Spider-Man: Homecoming and Ant-Man and the Wasp had strong competition the week after (War for the Planet of the Apes and Skyscraper) that also took away most if not all of their PLF screens. They both had strong word-of-mouth to recover afterwards, but I'm sure their second weekend drops would've been smaller if they didn't lose PLFs so quickly. 

 

It's easy to understand why Thor: Love and Thunder had a massive second weekend drop (despite not losing its PLFs), so that just leaves the first Ant-Man and Spider-Man: Far From Home. The former fell 56% and the latter fell 51% (though that one opened on a Tuesday). 

 

Considering that Deadpool and Wolverine's word-of-mouth is very strong and it won't be losing any PLFs this weekend, I'm pretty confident that it won't drop any more than 60%. It probably won't achieve $100M in its second weekend (I would love to be surprised), but anything between $90M-$95M is still really damn good. 

 

Regardless, Deadpool and Wolverine is for sure passing $500M domestically and $1B worldwide. I'm sorry but that's pretty f***ing awesome if you ask me!

 

[Cheddar Please]

9 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

There's also Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018) which dropped 61.6% on second weekend, but had 2.86x legs, which would give DPW a $604M DOM total. 

 

Speaking of which, Lion King 2019 had some pretty blegh legs for a kids/family movie during peak summer. With better WOM like Aladdin, it would've made $700M for around 72-73M admissions.

The funny thing is that TLK and I2 were pacing almost identically throughout the first 2 weeks. It was only when I2 hit July 4th weekend that it pulled ahead and didn't look baack

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, Cheddar Please said:

The funny thing is that TLK and I2 were pacing almost identically throughout the first 2 weeks. It was only when I2 hit July 4th weekend that it pulled ahead and didn't look baack

The Lion King kinda underperformed domestically but overperformed OS which cancels each other out so WW it basically met expectations

[Cheddar Please]

1 minute ago, Ryan C said:

 

I'm actually willing to bet that the drop will be lower than 60%. 

 

Even though the right comps for Deadpool and Wolverine would be the July MCU movies, almost all of them had a reason why they dropped as large as they did beyond just opening in the summer. 

 

Spider-Man: Homecoming and Ant-Man and the Wasp had strong competition the week after (War for the Planet of the Apes and Skyscraper) that also took away most if not all of their PLF screens. They both had strong word-of-mouth to recover afterwards, but I'm sure their second weekend drops would've been smaller if they didn't lose PLFs so quickly. 

 

It's easy to understand why Thor: Love and Thunder had a massive second weekend drop (despite not losing its PLFs), so that just leaves the first Ant-Man and Spider-Man: Far From Home. The former fell 56% and the latter fell 51% (though that one opened on a Tuesday). 

 

Considering that Deadpool and Wolverine's word-of-mouth is very strong and it won't be losing any PLFs this weekend, I'm pretty confident that it won't drop any more than 60%. It probably won't achieve $100M in its second weekend (I would love to be surprised), but anything between $90M-$95M is still really damn good. 

 

Regardless, Deadpool and Wolverine is for sure passing $500M domestically and $1B worldwide. I'm sorry but that's pretty f***ing awesome if you ask me!

 

my comparison for this movie currently falls between IW (2.63x) and TLK (2.83x), given that this movie seems to be trending right between those two comps rn we would be looking at a 55-60% drop this weekend, so about 85-95m, probably trending towards the higher end of that range given its decent Tuesday hold

[THUNDER BIRD]

2 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

The Lion King kinda underperformed domestically but overperformed OS which cancels each other out so WW it basically met expectations

I can assure you, it didn't overperform overseas.

 

It would've done better overseas too had it been good enough.

 

 

[eddyxx]

I must say, I definitely had doubts a few weeks ago that DP&W could hit a billion worldwide. I’m glad to be wrong.

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, Cheddar Please said:

my comparison for this movie currently falls between IW (2.63x) and TLK (2.83x), given that this movie seems to be trending right between those two comps rn we would be looking at a 55-60% drop this weekend, so about 85-95m, probably trending towards the higher end of that range given its decent Tuesday hold

Fuck it why not 100M+

[HummingLemon496]

Imo it's

 

Wed - 23 (283)

Thur - 20 (303)

Fri - 28 (331)

Sat - 34 (365)

Sun - 29 (394)

 

91 second weekend, absolutely incinerated Deadpool 2's puny 208M 10-day total

 

Fucking madness. . .

 

@AgentCooper315 what's your thoughts on this?

Edited July 31 by HummingLemon496

[Cooper Legion]

26 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

I'm actually willing to bet that the drop will be lower than 60%. 

 

Even though the right comps for Deadpool and Wolverine would be the July MCU movies, almost all of them had a reason why they dropped as large as they did beyond just opening in the summer. 

 

Spider-Man: Homecoming and Ant-Man and the Wasp had strong competition the week after (War for the Planet of the Apes and Skyscraper) that also took away most if not all of their PLF screens. They both had strong word-of-mouth to recover afterwards, but I'm sure their second weekend drops would've been smaller if they didn't lose PLFs so quickly. 

 

It's easy to understand why Thor: Love and Thunder had a massive second weekend drop (despite not losing its PLFs), so that just leaves the first Ant-Man and Spider-Man: Far From Home. The former fell 56% and the latter fell 51% (though that one opened on a Tuesday). 

 

Considering that Deadpool and Wolverine's word-of-mouth is very strong and it won't be losing any PLFs this weekend, I'm pretty confident that it won't drop any more than 60%. It probably won't achieve $100M in its second weekend (I would love to be surprised), but anything between $90M-$95M is still really damn good. 

 

Regardless, Deadpool and Wolverine is for sure passing $500M domestically and $1B worldwide. I'm sorry but that's pretty f***ing awesome if you ask me!

 

In general this is a solid way to be thinking about it, problem is:

AM1 true fss drop of 51% takes it to 84.75M (60% drop)

FFH true fss drop of 51% tak… oh, it’s the same

 

38.5M is just a huge drag on the denominator, even if it holds well in reality the goofy fss/ThFSS metric will struggle to have a nice topline

[Claire of Themyscira]

Not bitches demanding anything from Charlie...

 

Like, this is crazy? Anyways, fuck them bitches! If they want something, they should drop by themselves.

 

@charlie Jatinder You don't owe anybody shit! ❤️

[AnthonyJPHer]

well, damn… I missed a lot

 

i was going to say: Maybe the real AgentCooper was the friends we made along the way

 

but then he shows up. Man. 
 

 

 

[Cheddar Please]

49 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Fuck it why not 100M+

Currently it's playing like an MCU Phase 3 movie, aka decent but not amazing trend, also July is when weekend jumps tend to be the weakest relative to the week, come back to me if Thursday ends up being over 20m

[HummingLemon496]

@AgentCooper315

 

What OS would DPW have if it finishes at $600-625M DOM?