Weekend Numbers [Aug 02 - Aug 04, 2024] | Actuals | 96.81M DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE | 22.80M TWISTERS | 15.45M TRAP

[HummingLemon496]

^ Untagged spoilers

[toutvabien]

Just realized April is packed with wildcards that probably will make quite a bit of money between Minecraft, Michael and Christ. All three could end up amongst the year's biggest.

 

Starting to get more confident on Cap 4, but still seeing low $200m dom and o/u $500m ww. Can see a similar range for Snow White tbh.

 

Thunderbolts and Elio will both do better than ppl seem to predict here, I think. A lot will depend on marketing, but at least for Thunderbolts, I'm confident on its WoM. Even opening around $80m with strong legs can lead to $250m dom/$600m ww. Would love to see Elio open to $50m or so and leg it out to $200m. Karate Kid will be big.

 

I think it's between the three big of July on which one wins the Summer - the year will be won by either Zootopia or Avatar, leaning towards Avatar rn (def globally, but also domestically). I honestly see all three July releases (Jurassic, Superman and FF) pulling $300m+ runs in the US. Jurassic probably has the lead globally, but can be challenged. My boring predictions say $900m for Jurassic, $700m for Supes and $800m for FF.

[Jaxon5]

7 minutes ago, toutvabien said:

Just realized April is packed with wildcards that probably will make quite a bit of money between Minecraft, Michael and Christ. All three could end up amongst the year's biggest.

 

Starting to get more confident on Cap 4, but still seeing low $200m dom and o/u $500m ww. Can see a similar range for Snow White tbh.

 

Thunderbolts and Elio will both do better than ppl seem to predict here, I think. A lot will depend on marketing, but at least for Thunderbolts, I'm confident on its WoM. Even opening around $80m with strong legs can lead to $250m dom/$600m ww. Would love to see Elio open to $50m or so and leg it out to $200m. Karate Kid will be big.

 

I think it's between the three big of July on which one wins the Summer - the year will be won by either Zootopia or Avatar, leaning towards Avatar rn (def globally, but also domestically). I honestly see all three July releases (Jurassic, Superman and FF) pulling $300m+ runs in the US. Jurassic probably has the lead globally, but can be challenged. My boring predictions say $900m for Jurassic, $700m for Supes and $800m for FF.

Been seeing alot of high predictions for Michael but I just can't see another Halloween movie doing that well, we've had enough already

[lorddemaxus]

Running up that Hill would’ve been a viral hit regardless of what context that song was used in since it’s one of the best songs ever by the best pop artist of all time. It’s just that Levy’s whole thing seems to be using really good songs in mediocre material.

[AniNate]

I don't think Passion 2 is happening next April. Not sure it's even started filming yet.

[wildphantom]

Any word on Trap and Twisters Sat numbers? 

[CJohn]

M Night needs another Split level hit with the GA or else his movies are gonna continue to be stuck in the 15M OW range.

[THUNDER BIRD]

All songs worked well in Deadpool & Wolverine, person who chose them chose well.

[baumer]

It's a 38 holds up, which I'm sure it will, that's a 38% drop from its opening saturday. You give the same 38% drop to it Sunday and that works out to about 33 million. That would give Deadpool 99 million for its second weekend LOL if it comes that close I wonder if Disney is just going to give it  100 million for its estimate?

[baumer]

50 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Running up that Hill would’ve been a viral hit regardless of what context that song was used in since it’s one of the best songs ever by the best pop artist of all time. It’s just that Levy’s whole thing seems to be using really good songs in mediocre material.

 

I'm not really sure what kind of point you're making here. Running up that hill wasn't a giant hit when it first came out and it was basically a forgotten song until it appeared in stranger things. So regardless of your dislike of stranger things and deadpool, point stands, and it's irrefutable, running up that hill got a new lease on life because of stranger things and Shawn Levy 

[Jaxon5]

8 hours ago, Ryan C said:

It looks like Deadpool and Wolverine will be joining that small and very recent list of movies that hit the cultural zeitgeist so well that it led to a domestic gross higher than $500M. 

 

1. Spider-Man: No Way Home

2. Top Gun: Maverick

3. Avatar: The Way of Water

4. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

5. Barbie

6. Inside Out 2

7. Deadpool and Wolverine

 

Personally, once a movie gets past that milestone, it really does point towards it not just being something that a lot of people wanted to see, but a legitmate phenomenon that got all kinds of people from different demographics and appealed to multiple people of all age groups. 

 

If you would've told me this in 2020 or even in 2021, I would've laughed in your face, but to have seven films do this well and less within a three year span of each other is just absolutely insane. 

I think 600m is just the new 300m. Amazingly, only Top Gun Maverick and NWH from that list sold as many tickets as something like Dead Man's Chest back in 2006

[Eric Deetz]

Where are the flowers for Free Guy bringing back “Fantasy”? Mariah’s best bop ever imo

[Cooper Legion]

24 minutes ago, Jaxon5 said:

I think 600m is just the new 300m. Amazingly, only Top Gun Maverick and NWH from that list sold as many tickets as something like Dead Man's Chest back in 2006

Equivalent to 300M circa 2000/2001, 400M circa 2009, or 500M circa 2019

[Jaxon5]

2 minutes ago, Cooper Legion said:

Equivalent to 300M circa 2000/2001, 400M circa 2009, or 500M circa 2019

Makes Oppenheimer seem less impressive conpared to something like The Blind Side

[ZattMurdock]

9 minutes ago, Cooper Legion said:

Equivalent to 300M circa 2000/2001, 400M circa 2009, or 500M circa 2019

Equivalent to 300m circa last century I can kinda see it. Equivalent to 500m circa 2019 than it’s just nuts and a notion so out there and completely disconnected to the reality of box office that is not just naive, but a harmful rhetoric and a case to BOT users setting themselves to disappointment. 
 

Getting to $600m domestic was incredibly hard back in 2019, it is incredibly hard now. It’s not the new ‘normal’, and comparing with something like Dead Man’s Chest doesn’t apply because the market has changed, COVID happened, etc. Box office runs like Spider-Man: No Way Home, Top Gun: Maverick, Barbie, Oppenheimer and now Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine should celebrated as achievements just like Avengers: Endgame back in 2019.

 

Why stop in the 2000s, let’s go back to the 70s or whatever. I don’t remember which BOT old timer had a say against this years ago, but there is no point acting like getting to $600m is like getting to $300m back when whatever. The market is different, look at all the other films, look at the market even before COVID back in 2019. We celebrate the wins, we don’t act smug about them.

[AniNate]

2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Running up that Hill would’ve been a viral hit regardless of what context that song was used in since it’s one of the best songs ever by the best pop artist of all time. It’s just that Levy’s whole thing seems to be using really good songs in mediocre material.

 

Songs in popular material is the accurate way to put it. When a movie/show is popular the needle drops tend to surge in popularity as well.

[ZattMurdock]

17 minutes ago, Jaxon5 said:

Makes Oppenheimer seem less impressive conpared to something like The Blind Side

Again I’m sorry but lmao NO. And I’m far from a Nolan fanboy, just no.

[grim22]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

 

I'm not really sure what kind of point you're making here. Running up that hill wasn't a giant hit when it first came out and it was basically a forgotten song until it appeared in stranger things. So regardless of your dislike of stranger things and deadpool, point stands, and it's irrefutable, running up that hill got a new lease on life because of stranger things and Shawn Levy 

Obviously you aren't a wrestling fan. Running Up That Hill is used in what is considered the best wrestling hype video ever made a full decade before Stranger Things

 

 

 

[ZattMurdock]

 

 

[Jaxon5]

9 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Equivalent to 300m circa last century I can kinda see it. Equivalent to 500m circa 2019 than it’s just nuts and a notion so out there and completely disconnected to the reality of box office that is not just naive, but a harmful rhetoric and a case to BOT users setting themselves to disappointment. 
 

Getting to $600m domestic was incredibly hard back in 2019, it is incredibly hard now. It’s not the new ‘normal’, and comparing with something like Dead Man’s Chest doesn’t apply because the market has changed, COVID happened, etc. Box office runs like Spider-Man: No Way Home, Top Gun: Maverick, Barbie, Oppenheimer and now Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine should celebrated as achievements just like Avengers: Endgame back in 2019.

 

Why stop in the 2000s, let’s go back to the 70s or whatever. I don’t remember which BOT old timer had a say against this years ago, but there is no point acting like getting to $600m is like getting to $300m back when whatever. The market is different, look at all the other films, look at the market even before COVID back in 2019. We celebrate the wins, we don’t act smug about them.

Have you not heard of a little thing called inflation since Covid? Getting to 600m today isn't too unlile getting to 500m im 2019, or 300m back in the early 2000's. The early part of that decade averaged around 2 per year, similar to now. Spider-man smashed the OW record, had amazing holds and ended up edging past 400m. No way should that be compared to Barbie, Inside out 2 or Deadpool 3, it's more in line with NWH's 800m gross.

 

Covid has changed movie going habits but seems clear blockbusters have been effected the least. KOTA, KFP4, W&D, Strange 2, Thor 4, Ant Man 3 etc all proved this by performing in line or even better than their predecessors despite worse reception, atleast on opening weekends

 

I also don't see what's harmful about this theory.