SPECTRE | 11/6/15 | Final Trailer on Page 126! | Twitter reactions coming in, STID 2.0?

[Jandrew]

I dont get it...where are you guys getting your predictions from? Skyfall was an outlier for the modern Bond series, and almost an outlier for the whole series, yet everyone suddenly thinks Spectre can march that? Thats not my opinion, just look at the chart. Winter 2012 was strong, great reviews, 50th birthday, Olympics coverage, the Adele song, etc. $300M it made, versus the bunch of Bonds that all landed in the $100Ms.

And now we suddenly think Spectre is going to ignore the precedent and automatically shoot for $300M+? I dont get it. It'd be different if this had been playing out gradually, but No, Skyfall just shot up. I dont see it maintaining that domestic or worldwide. Will it fall back to Casino Royale numbers? Nah, somewhere around $250M, maybe a little less, but I see no reason for this automatically match Skyfall. James Bond didnt just double his fanbase overnight.

When predicting a franchise, you have to go back and look at all their movies and the tangibles they had, not just the last one. WW should be set for $1b, but I dont see how this is a lock for anything north of $300M (or anything right under that) at all.

[Lordmandeep]

True but Skyfall was well liked by the public so I think the overseas gross will be the same at least. 

[Ethan Hunt]

I don't see it matching Skyfall, even if it's every bit as good. 270-295M I think. Skyfall was did make Bond popular again so over 200M is a given.

[Burgess]

I dont get it...where are you guys getting your predictions from? Skyfall was an outlier for the modern Bond series, and almost an outlier for the whole series, yet everyone suddenly thinks Spectre can march that? Thats not my opinion, just look at the chart. Winter 2012 was strong, great reviews, 50th birthday, Olympics coverage, the Adele song, etc. $300M it made, versus the bunch of Bonds that all landed in the $100Ms.

And now we suddenly think Spectre is going to ignore the precedent and automatically shoot for $300M+? I dont get it. It'd be different if this had been playing out gradually, but No, Skyfall just shot up. I dont see it maintaining that domestic or worldwide. Will it fall back to Casino Royale numbers? Nah, somewhere around $250M, maybe a little less, but I see no reason for this automatically match Skyfall. James Bond didnt just double his fanbase overnight.

When predicting a franchise, you have to go back and look at all their movies and the tangibles they had, not just the last one. WW should be set for $1b, but I dont see how this is a lock for anything north of $300M (or anything right under that) at all.

Star Trek (2009) made $257 million domestic and $385 million WW.

Star Trek: Nemesis made $43 million domestic and $67 million WW.

 

Batman Begins made $206 million domestic and $374 million WW.

The Dark Knight made $534 million domestic and $1 billion WW.

 

Spectre may not hit $300+ million, but it could. It really could.

[Jandrew]

Star Trek (2009) made $257 million domestic and $385 million WW.

Star Trek: Nemesis made $43 million domestic and $67 million WW.

 

Batman Begins made $206 million domestic and $374 million WW.

The Dark Knight made $534 million domestic and $1 billion WW.

 

Spectre may not hit $300+ million, but it could. It really could.

The Star Trek comparision is not the same thing. As for TDK, it was an outlier as well, and we all know the reasons it did what it did, cough cough Joker.

Yeah, it could, but aim not counting on it, and those movies you listed give me no confidence. If you go look at James Bond BO history on BOM, you see what I mean. Now, Im no pyschic, I may very well be wrong, but going by statistics and history, I dont see it.

[Neo]

I dont get it...where are you guys getting your predictions from? Skyfall was an outlier for the modern Bond series, and almost an outlier for the whole series, yet everyone suddenly thinks Spectre can march that? Thats not my opinion, just look at the chart. Winter 2012 was strong, great reviews, 50th birthday, Olympics coverage, the Adele song, etc. $300M it made, versus the bunch of Bonds that all landed in the $100Ms.

And now we suddenly think Spectre is going to ignore the precedent and automatically shoot for $300M+? I dont get it. It'd be different if this had been playing out gradually, but No, Skyfall just shot up. I dont see it maintaining that domestic or worldwide. Will it fall back to Casino Royale numbers? Nah, somewhere around $250M, maybe a little less, but I see no reason for this automatically match Skyfall. James Bond didnt just double his fanbase overnight.

When predicting a franchise, you have to go back and look at all their movies and the tangibles they had, not just the last one. WW should be set for $1b, but I dont see how this is a lock for anything north of $300M (or anything right under that) at all.

Winter 2012 was strong, great reviews, 50th birthday, Olympics coverage, the Adele song, etc. 3 of the 5 can be matched. So for AOU you need to predict 250M right? You need to look at the all the movies in the franchise, right? So you are thinking 700M+ OS?

 

So it will doing 70M-75M OW?

[Jandrew]

Winter 2012 was strong, great reviews, 50th birthday, Olympics coverage, the Adele song, etc. 3 of the 5 can be matched. So for AOU you need to predict 250M right? You need to look at the all the movies in the franchise, right? So you are thinking 700M+ OS?

 

So it will doing 70M-75M OW?

 

Bye, Felicia.

[RaidensSword]

Doesnt reading the script and any plot twists make the movie less fun for people?

[holcs]

I definitely think this is dropping from skyfall...that did have a perfect time and movie.  But, it's still guaranteed 200m- which for a bond movie is amazing going by the passed numbers.  I think this early will do 240 - 260m. No Bond movie will blow up like skyfall did again. And watching skyfall quite a few times now...it's just not as good as casino royale or even goldeneye- just for somewhat recent bonds.  It caught a wave like I've never seen-it was awesome as a huuuge bond fan to see it do well but it was in the end a good bond entry for me compared to great ones like goldeneye and casino. 

[kayumanggi]

I think 300 M is possible. I want to believe a lot of people miss Bond.

[Burgess]

The Star Trek comparision is not the same thing. As for TDK, it was an outlier as well, and we all know the reasons it did what it did, cough cough Joker.

Yeah, it could, but aim not counting on it, and those movies you listed give me no confidence. If you go look at James Bond BO history on BOM, you see what I mean. Now, Im no pyschic, I may very well be wrong, but going by statistics and history, I dont see it.

The same thing could have been said about TDK, but TDKR outgrossed TDK WW. The domestic number decreased, but given the gross of TDK I think that was expected.

 

If Spectre does earn less domestically than Skyfall I don't think the difference will be huge. Compare Star Trek Into Darkness to Star Trek: $228 million vs $257 million. That's 'only' a difference of $29 million. 

[Burgess]

A splinter unit was spotted shooting scenes for SPECTRE near Sölden this week

[Neo]

Bye, Felicia.

Great response to someone that was proven wrong.

[Hatebox]

Unless the film's garbage, at least a billion shouldn't be a problem. The end of Skyfall was practically an origin story, people will be hungry for more. Mendes directing again is also a big deal. I haven't loved every movie he's done but I think he has a good sense of quality control and stylistic continuity will only help the movie.

[Lordmandeep]

I dont see it beating Skyfall but it should land near a billion worldwide again. 

[Jandrew]

Great response to someone that was proven wrong.

LMFAO! L-M-F-A-O! . Neo. Please tell me how I was proven wrong when the movie doesnt even come out for another 11 months? LOLOL.

I said bye becasue Im not debating you. Im sick of you always having something to say when I make a post. I have 10,767 posts and atleast 9,000 of those is replying to you. Then when someone doesnt want to spent there entire day debating you, you have something snarky to say. Not doing it.

The same thing could have been said about TDK, but TDKR outgrossed TDK WW. The domestic number decreased, but given the gross of TDK I think that was expected.

 

If Spectre does earn less domestically than Skyfall I don't think the difference will be huge. Compare Star Trek Into Darkness to Star Trek: $228 million vs $257 million. That's 'only' a difference of $29 million.

You have your data, I have mine. Like I said, it could happen, but I dont think it will. If it was gradual, thats a different story, but considering Skyfall shot up like a rocket, I dont think so. Neither of us is wrong. Guess we'll see in 11 months.

[Jessie]

The Star Trek comparision is not the same thing. As for TDK, it was an outlier as well, and we all know the reasons it did what it did, cough cough Joker.

Yeah, it could, but aim not counting on it, and those movies you listed give me no confidence. If you go look at James Bond BO history on BOM, you see what I mean. Now, Im no pyschic, I may very well be wrong, but going by statistics and history, I dont see it.

If you look at past bond movies you'll see that Goldfinger massively increased in ticket sails (adjusts to over 500m) and the following film again saw another increase. Now what's to stop Spectre following that pattern?

And sure, TDK was made huge by Ledger's death but it also had great WOM which made people more interested in the franchise. TDKR then had a higher opening and we all know had the shootings not happened then TDKR could have potentially hit 500m and opened even higher.

Now going by this I don't see how Spectre doesn't open higher than skyfall and if it's a great film with great WOM there's no reason it can't eclipse Skyfalls domestic gross. It's all depending on the quality of the film.

[Jandrew]

1. Thats why I said the modern Bonds. 1964 movies are not the same as 2015 movies.

2. I didnt even say "Ledgers death", I said "Joker." If TDK had used Killer Croc, thered be no discussion. And TDKR was not hitting $500M regardless. And TDKR also had finale factor (among the TDK series). We and the GA knows good and well that there will be 30 more Bonds in our lifetime and theres no indication Spectre will be the last before another reboot.

3. I never said it couldnt open higher, but I dont see it having magic Skyfall legs and racing past $300M. Spectre could open to $120M and still miss $300M. Quality or not.

Problem here is everyone wants to assume Bond doubled its fanbase and now every installment going forward is set for $300M+. No. F&F gradually improved, Twilight was consistent, and Bond was consistent and gradually improved...until Skyfall. That makes it an outlier.

If the movie is really really good, then maybe, but I dont see $300M happening, and Im sticking with that until November 2015.

Edited December 14, 2014 by Jandrew In The Mist

[Neo]

LMFAO! L-M-F-A-O! . Neo. Please tell me how I was proven wrong when the movie doesnt even come out for another 11 months? LOLOL.

I said bye becasue Im not debating you. Im sick of you always having something to say when I make a post. I have 10,767 posts and atleast 9,000 of those is replying to you. Then when someone doesnt want to spent there entire day debating you, you have something snarky to say. Not doing it.

You have your data, I have mine. Like I said, it could happen, but I dont think it will. If it was gradual, thats a different story, but considering Skyfall shot up like a rocket, I dont think so. Neither of us is wrong. Guess we'll see in 11 months.

Well for someone that doesn't one me to reply you sure like to reply yourself. LOLOLOL. Well its the other posters that pend countless hours debating me, so wrong on that front. BTW your franchise bit was wrong also SPECTRE might not match Skyfall 100% but has goodwill that Skfall didn't have post QOS.

[Jessie]

Fair enough, if I'm being honest I'm not predicting 300m either simply because it's rare to have 2 good bond films in a row but I do think it's possible. One thing I will disagree with though, TDKR was most likely hitting around 500m without those shooting. Still would have fallen below TDK but I'd argue those shootings effected it's total gross by about 50m. Parents were refusing to let their kids see the film when that happened and I live in the UK. I imagine it was a similar case in the States.

If bond is a really good film though, 300m should happen.

Edited December 14, 2014 by jessie