8/12-8/15 Weekdays Thread | It Ends With Us $6.2m Monday

[Ryan C]

15 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

It’s actually far more easier to understand than we overthink it, because I used to think about this too. The truth is that people enjoy the shit out of a film and move on with their lives. Then we have people that hated the film from the get go for reasons or franchise wars non sense - tribalism and fandoms are a major thing on social media now - and those always try to harp on it and try to change the narrative among these films. Basically, some people live, others treat social media like it’s an RPG and they kinda suck at it. 
 

It only gets louder and it’s amplified by social media apps by design because heated discussion gathers more engagement aka time sinking and that’s what these apps want from us. I don’t pay no mind to it, it’s a pointless discussion. 

 

Yeah, it's also mainly why I stopped using those kinds of websites. 

 

I might have said this before, but before The Marvels came out, I was getting ready to leave Twitter because I knew the discourse surrounding that film was going to be insufferable to deal with. I ended up leaving earlier than expected and even though the discourse surrounding that film did bleed into the real world somewhat, I was able to avoid a lot of it because I left the website that thrives on negativity and heated discussions. 

 

I couldn't have been happier for myself because staying on social media websites like Twitter are really just setting yourself up to deal with annoying or stupid people who have no idea what they're talking about and engage in discussions that go nowhere. 

 

By the way, this BOT Forum is the complete opposite of websites like Twitter. Beyond the fact that we're limited to one topic that you actually have to care about (which most of us do), most of the people here are very knowledgeable about the box office, bring up interesting points of view, and though we have disagreements about certain things, it never gets as toxic or as pointless as any discussion we've most likely had with a stupid person on Twitter who really has no idea what they're talking about. Also, there is no constant wave of negativity being thrown at us which is 100% unavoidable when on websites like Twitter. 

[AnthonyJPHer]

18 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

I have a strong feeling that Alien: Romulus will blow up. $60m plus, hell if it keeps the good RT score momentum going I’d dare to say north to $100m. Which would spill over for Deadpool & Wolverine and It Ends With Us as well.

100m is absolutely not happening. Presales are not indicating that and even if it breaks out I can see 70m max

[Ryan C]

6 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

100m is absolutely not happening. Presales are not indicating that and even if it breaks out I can see 70m max

 

100% 

 

Alien Romulus is not opening or even getting close to $100M this weekend. It should definitely (and hopefully) clear that total after it's run is over, but hitting that in just three days is impossible. 

 

Trust me, I would be the happiest man on the planet if this movie would somehow pull an Inside Out 2 and blow every single tracking projection away, but remember that this is a franchise that has a ceiling and it's unfortunately not that high. 

 

I'm still thinking it does more than $50M, but I don't think it'll do much more beyond maybe hitting $60M at the highest of ends. 

Edited August 14 by Ryan C

[ZattMurdock]

 

[AnthonyJPHer]

2 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

100% 

 

Alien Romulus is not opening or even getting close to $100M this weekend. It should definitely (and hopefully) clear that total after it's run is over, but hitting that in just three days is impossible. 

 

Trust me, I would be the happiest man on the planet if this movie would somehow pull an Inside Out 2 and blow every single tracking projection away, but remember that this is a franchise that has a ceiling and it's unfortunately not that high. 

 

I'm still thinking it does more than $50M, but I don't think it'll do much more beyond maybe hitting $60M at the highest of ends. 

I think it could do Bad Boys: Ride or Die O

opening weekend numbers and perhaps end at 150m on the high end but it’s absolutely not going 100m domestic. It would need final sales to be insanely high. Like, Inside Out 2 or Minions 2 levels of walk ups, which aren’t possibly for this franchise 

[Ryan C]

1 minute ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

I think it could do Bad Boys: Ride or Die O

opening weekend numbers and perhaps end at 150m on the high end but it’s absolutely not going 100m domestic. It would need final sales to be insanely high. Like, Inside Out 2 or Minions 2 levels of walk ups, which aren’t possibly for this franchise 

 

Exactly. 

 

This isn't even Deadpool and Wolverine where a lot of kids are gonna go regardless of the R-rating. This movie is definitely gonna scare off most people who are under 18. That, and the Alien franchise just does not have that reach that Marvel or other science-fiction brands like Star Wars or Planet of the Apes do. 

 

It's a popular franchise, but it has to reach beyond the core fanbase to even reach what Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes did back in May. 

[Ryan C]

7 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

 

 

This doesn't even include Dune: Part Two, Kung Fu Panda 4, and Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire. 

 

I probably would've laughed in your face back in April if you told me this is how summer would've ended up, but I'm so happy that this is the outcome of most of these movies. 

 

Everyone expected Despicable Me 4 to be the only $1B grosser this summer, but now we have Inside Out 2 and Deadpool and Wolverine that cleared that mark no problem while DM4 still could pull in a $900M+ worldwide gross. 

 

Everyone expected Deadpool and Wolverine to be the first $100M opener of the year and then Inside Out 2 comes in blowing everything away while D&W opens to over $200M. 

 

Outside of the adult-counterprogramming films that bombed this summer (which is still a shame) everything else has been making up for the disappointments and that's a great sign for a year that we all thought was going to be a complete disaster. 

[ZattMurdock]

11 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

I think it could do Bad Boys: Ride or Die O

opening weekend numbers and perhaps end at 150m on the high end but it’s absolutely not going 100m domestic. It would need final sales to be insanely high. Like, Inside Out 2 or Minions 2 levels of walk ups, which aren’t possibly for this franchise 

I meant "north to $100m", can’t walk ups extrapolate to $70-90m+? I’m not following the buzz thread but the theory is that with the film getting raves, being horror that usually invite walk ups and people wanting a good Alien film it could go for a perfect horror storm of sorts. Or is that that much far fetched?

[Ryan C]

1 minute ago, ZattMurdock said:

I meant "north to $100m", can’t walk ups extrapolate to $70-90m+? I’m not following the buzz thread but the theory is that with the film getting raves, being horror that usually invite walk ups and people wanting a good Alien film it could go for a perfect horror storm of sorts. Or is that that much far fetched?

 

Honestly, it is pretty far-fetched when you're talking about a number that would be bigger than Dune: Part Two.

 

I'm not saying that this movie doesn't have the stuff that it needs to breakout, but it's always gonna have to deal with the challenge of being apart of a franchise that doesn't have the best track record critically or even financially. Not to mention that it's notorious for being extremely frontloaded and is one that started way back in 1979. If the film didn't star a younger cast of characters or wasn't even directed by Fede Alvarez (who's popular amongst horror fans) but instead Ridley Scott again, then I wouldn't see much breakput potential for this one. 

[ZattMurdock]

4 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

Honestly, it is pretty far-fetched when you're talking about a number that would be bigger than Dune: Part Two.

 

I'm not saying that this movie doesn't have the stuff that it needs to breakout, but it's always gonna have to deal with the challenge of being apart of a franchise that doesn't have the best track record critically or even financially. Not to mention that it's notorious for being extremely frontloaded and is one that started way back in 1979. If the film didn't star a younger cast of characters or wasn't even directed by Fede Alvarez (who's popular amongst horror fans) but instead Ridley Scott again, then I wouldn't see much breakput potential for this one. 

I laughed at this, not gonna lie.

[emoviefan]

2 hours ago, Ryan C said:

 

Exactly. 

 

This isn't even Deadpool and Wolverine where a lot of kids are gonna go regardless of the R-rating. This movie is definitely gonna scare off most people who are under 18. 

Yeah was going to say the same thing. It may be R rated like DP and W but I do not think some  Parents will take their kids like they did with  that. The violence and gore in this is a lot more icky and gross than the cartoonish stuff in that. Also a lot more nightmarish obviously.

[Relevation]

On 8/13/2024 at 10:09 PM, HummingLemon496 said:

According to Letterboxd:

 

1. Top Gun: Maverick - 3.99/5.00
2. Barbie - 3.85/5.00
3. Spider-Man: No Way Home - 3.84/5.00
4. Inside Out 2 - 3.70/5.00
5. Deadpool & Wolverine - 3.64/5.00
6. Avatar: The Way of Water - 3.61/5.00
7. The Super Mario Bros. Movie - 3.26/5.00
8. Jurassic World Dominion - 2.21/5.00

 

Damn so LB just has the perfect ranking, no notes

[HummingLemon496]

1 hour ago, Relevation said:

Damn so LB just has the perfect ranking, no notes

 

LetterBoxd is 100x better than garbage IMDB

Edited August 15 by HummingLemon496

[vale9001]

LB has a youngest audience, a less male centered audience and people talking like "this new musical with ariana grande called Woked" somehow still didn't take the control. 

[Cooper Legion]

Still tracking for about 640-665M, should gross roughly 31-36M on Th-Sun to stay on course

[WorkingonaName]

On 8/14/2024 at 4:26 PM, WorkingonaName said:

TGM: 9/10

WOW: 9/10

NWH: 7/10

Barbie: 7/10

Mario: 6/10

Dominion: 4/10

 

Haven't Seen IO2 and DW.

TGM: 9/10

WOW: 9/10

NWH: 7/10

Barbie: 7/10

DW: 6/10

Mario: 6/10

Dominion: 4/10

[baumer]

17 hours ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

Avengers: Endgame was front loaded though. It opened to 357m in its domestic opening weekend and only ended up grossing 858m, which, while still incredible, is slightly disappointing. It’s only an 2.5x multiplier. Not horrible but very underwhelming. Especially considering all the hype it had, and it couldn’t even beat The Force Awakens despite opening 100m ahead. Heck, it actually grossed almost 100m more than Endgame did. Yes, that had holiday legs, just like No Way Home did (and the only reason I brought that movie up was because it’s the only comparable movie post pandemic that got even close to its domestic gross and had almost equal hype) but Endgame released in early summer with absolutely no competition for weeks and collapsed even during the weekdays in its second week. Black Panther released in February and still grossed over 200m in its opening weekend and managed to have better legs despite massive hype as well behind it, grossing 700m DOM. I’m not downplaying its success or performance (although it might sound like it) but it was front loaded. It wasn’t nearly as front loaded as something like Multiverse of Madness or Batman v Superman though so I’ll give you that. 

 

When you smash the opening weekend record by more than 100 million dollars you can't use final gross of $858 million and disappointment in the same sentence. A movie like that is naturally going to be front loaded, it would be impossible for it not to be. There was an extreme amount of people who rushed out to see that opening weekend. It's a phenome unlike anything that we've seen before and probably won't see again for at least another decade if not more. 

 

You can be blase about some things but end game is not one of them.

[baumer]

17 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:

Blockbusters started with Star Wars. The term didn’t exist before that. So it stands to reason that a lot of the films you mentioned did become major franchises. Empire’s point about nostalgia and originality very much works for Batman (Batman ‘66 was a major thing, same for Superman), Star Wars Episode VI: Return of the Jedi, Star Wars Episode V: The Empire Strikes Back, Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, so 5 of the 10, with ALL the others becoming major franchises on their own that spawned several sequels but E.T.. 

 

Correction, the actual term Blockbuster started with jaws. It was literally because of jaws. Star wars was bigger but as everyone knows it came out 2 years after jaws.

[ZattMurdock]

42 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Correction, the actual term Blockbuster started with jaws. It was literally because of jaws. Star wars was bigger but as everyone knows it came out 2 years after jaws.

Yeah I stand corrected, apparently there was even a film in the 40s that coined the expression first, but it actually started getting real traction with Jaws:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockbuster_(entertainment)

[rihrey]