Krissykins Posted Friday at 02:51 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:51 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flopped Posted Friday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:52 PM Is that good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted Friday at 02:53 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:53 PM It's expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanMB Posted Friday at 03:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:03 PM Comparison to similar mid-range horror this year: Night Swim - $1,450,000 ($11.8M weekend) The Strangers Chapter 1 - $1,200,000 ($11.8M) Abigail - $1,000,000 ($10.3M) Imaginary - $725,000 ($9.9M) The First Omen - $725,000 ($8.3M) Previews did start at 2pm, which I think is earlier than any of these were, so that could inflate it a bit. But $10M+ looks more likely than not at least, especially with good WOM. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flopped Posted Friday at 03:07 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:07 PM I wonder what kept it from fully clicking. The reviews are strong and the marketing was relentless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted Friday at 03:19 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:19 PM I think it's fair to say it was overpromoted, sort of in the way The First Omen was earlier in the year. The same trailer on so many movies gave it the air of desperation and the reviews, despite being respectably positive, aren't enthusiastic enough to persuade many who planned to spend their weekend doing other things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan C Posted Friday at 03:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:30 PM 1 minute ago, AniNate said: I think it's fair to say it was overpromoted, sort of in the way The First Omen was earlier in the year. The same trailer on so many movies gave it the air of desperation and the reviews, despite being respectably positive, aren't enthusiastic enough to persuade many who planned to spend their weekend doing other things. Honestly, I don't think the trailer playing over and over again had any impact on the people who are going to see it. That feels like something that only people who are on the internet all the time complain about. I still stand by it being the kind of horror film that just isn't gonna appeal much to the prime horror moviegoing demographic (18-34). That, and though the reviews/buzz are good, they're probably a marginal step below the reviews/buzz something like The Black Phone got two years ago. It's why I see this debuting between $10M-$15M as a win. Without the kind of marketing campaign something like M3GAN or Smile had and purely relying on it's good reviews/James McAvoy (I now consider him a plus when you put him in a horror film), it's a genuinely good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanMB Posted Friday at 03:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:33 PM I said this in another thread, but in terms of non-franchise horror, "houseguests are weirdly terrorized by their hosts" is not that strong a hook, and while the marketing was relentless, I don't know if it was particularly memorable the way the marketing for Smile, Longlegs, or M3GAN all were. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThomasNicole Posted Friday at 03:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:37 PM The trailer playing too much has being mocked online so i do think it did had some negative impact, to a degree. But maybe more than that, Blumhouse has been putting some of their worst efforts out this year, which could led to some rejection of their next projects. Still, today is Friday the 13th, the WOM seems good this time around, and we’re far enough of summer. I think 12M is happening with 1.3M previews, maybe even 15M if good WOM kick in fast enough in time for the Friday 13th late shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krissykins Posted Friday at 03:51 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 03:51 PM Yeh WOM seems strong, hearing it’s very intense. It’s a film about adults too, so maybe that’s why it’s not clicking as much with the younger teens. And although the trailer has been shown a lot before other films, I wouldn’t say the marketing campaign as a whole has been “relentless”, press junkets with solo McAvoy only started this final week, one poster, no red carpet, I’ve seen 0 TV spots, no targeted social media ads to me so far. With a $15m price tag, I’m sure Universal will be fine with a $10-15m opening domestic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted Friday at 03:54 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:54 PM This seems like an acceptable launch if you ask me. I've been getting the impression this would perform similar to September 2022's Barbarian given the similarities: critically-acclaimed horror/thriller that arrived without much fanfare amidst a bunch of higher-profile titles but ultimately had a solid little run thanks to good WOM (which this is looking like it might have). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric the Marxist Posted Friday at 04:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:01 PM https://deadline.com/2024/09/box-office-speak-no-evil-beetlejuice-beetlejuice-dave-bautista-1236087187/ 300K Thursday for Killer's Game. Like...could this go below Crow? @CJohn need your input hon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted Friday at 04:05 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:05 PM Lionsgate has to be preparing themselves for a sale, right? They're about to offload 4 movies over as many weeks (The Killer's Game, Never Let Go, Megalopolis, White Bird) with as little promotion as possible. Or know that the next few years will have a better slate than the overall cheap one they offered this year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krissykins Posted Friday at 04:06 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 04:06 PM I feel bad for Never Let Go, Alexandre Aja is such a great director. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted Friday at 04:07 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:07 PM 6 minutes ago, Eric the Marxist said: https://deadline.com/2024/09/box-office-speak-no-evil-beetlejuice-beetlejuice-dave-bautista-1236087187/ 300K Thursday for Killer's Game. Like...could this go below Crow? @CJohn need your input hon. I predicted a 5M total a few days ago. Its happening. Lionsgate movies will keep going lower and lower. Lionsgate is becoming something unseen and unheard of. A true mystical beast for the ages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan C Posted Friday at 04:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:14 PM https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/5-week-tracking-and-forecasts-smile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted Friday at 04:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:14 PM I think we might see a relatively low preview share of the Friday gross for SNE, as is often the case for horror movies that open on Friday the 13th. Definitely think there’s enough for it to get comfortably in the double digits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justnumbers Posted Friday at 04:36 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:36 PM Very interested to see how and if Friday 13th bumps it and how that Saturday goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickiland16 Posted Friday at 05:05 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:05 PM 46 minutes ago, Ryan C said: https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/5-week-tracking-and-forecasts-smile The fall season is looking good for Paramount, those are good numbers for Smile and Transformers One high end is kinda close to what the last live-action movie did which I didn't thought that was going to happen. Yikes for the Joker drop though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan C Posted Friday at 05:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:15 PM 7 minutes ago, Mickiland16 said: The fall season is looking good for Paramount, those are good numbers for Smile and Transformers One high end is kinda close to what the last live-action movie did which I didn't thought that was going to happen. Yikes for the Joker drop though It's honestly gonna be upsetting if everything this Fall (Transformers One, Smile 2, Venom: The Last Dance, The Wild Robot, etc.) all perform well or exceed expectations, but the one movie that we all expected to be the biggest one of at least September and October misses expectations by over half. Though the Fall slate is much better than last year's, that is gonna hurt the box office no doubt. I already wasn't overly confident about this last week, but Joker 2 could be the movie that stops 2024 from getting real close to 2023's $9B total. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
