May 4, 2012 Weekend (AVENGERS Opening Discussion): ACTUAL 207.4 mill!!!!

[spizzer]

With a 68M figure18.7M Midnights49.3M Friday51.5M Saturday (+4.5%)36.2M Sunday (-29.8%)155.7M OW

Edited May 4, 2012 by spizzer

[spizzer]

If all are saying that then there may be something to it.

There's nothing to it. Disney made an extrapolation based on East Coast matinees and released the figure to the media. That's it

[spizzer]

Yup.Saturday drop (with mids) should be close to 20%.

Yeah around 20%, maybe a tad bit higher Edited May 4, 2012 by spizzer

[Fake]

With a 68M figure18.7M Midnights49.3M Friday51.5M Saturday (+4.5%)36.2M Sunday (-28.9%)155.7M OW

With lower Friday, it would be easier to get bigger Saturday jump. I'd expect at least 53M after 49.3M Friday. WOM is insane for this.

[spizzer]

With lower Friday, it would be easier to get bigger Saturday jump. I'd expect at least 53M after 49.3M Friday. WOM is insane for this.

I haven't ruled it out

[Fake]

There's nothing to it. Disney made an extrapolation based on East Coast matinees and released the figure to the media. That's it

She still has more data than we do... so I always give her number (however early) a decent amount of probability.But she may be low-balling it a bit in this case because she doesn't go on record predicting OW record, only for TA to miss it with actuals later.

[junkshop36]

I don't pay much attention to Nikki's early estimates. Sure, it's nice to have them to give us an idea of where it might be going but they're ALWAYS off; sometimes by a few million either up or down. I just wait until they become official estimates sometime Saturday morning/afternoon.

[HeyItsMoses]

This right here is what I see happening, and could very well likely play out like this:Midnight: $18.7mFriday: $52.3mSaturday: $54.4mSunday: $39.1mWeekend: $164.5m

[Eldenfirefly]

Wow, I missed a lot of the fun. couldn't keep up with you guys, fell asleep. Anyway, I think this estimate is going to go higher. If its any movie that is breaking OW, I want it to be TA rather than TDKR. And somehow, a 67 million OD doesn't feel like its going to take down the OW record, so this better go up when the later estimates come in.

[Dementeleus]

With both THR and Nikki reporting similar numbers, though, we know they're not batshit insane -- though I wouldn't be surprised by a couple million either way (presumably on the high end).

[Fake]

TA won't decrease from 65M IMO.

[Dementeleus]

No, but everyone's assuming the $67m figure and then adding a few million onto that.

[Biggestgeekever]

No, but everyone's assuming the $67m figure and then adding a few million onto that.

I posted it some pages back, but Variety stated that it was slighty ahead of The Dark Knight as of noon, which is insane since this is May and points to an OD above $67m.

[riczhang]

No, but everyone's assuming the $67m figure and then adding a few million onto that.

And the west coast matinees are generally stronger, so if they're extrapolating from what data they have, then the figure should be higher than the 67 million.

[tomknf]

Jeez some of the estimates here are beyond ridicules. Ever since we moved out of BOM it seems that people go more crazy than they use to whenever there's a big release.

[Dementeleus]

And the west coast matinees are generally stronger, so if they're extrapolating from what data they have, then the figure should be higher than the 67 million.

You're assuming that the $67m figure doesn't take this into account. It might.

[Eldenfirefly]

I thinik TA would need at least a 80m OW to have a chance at breaking the OW record though, otherwise, the over 20 million advantage that DH2 has from midnights will be just too much of a gap to breach.

[Fake]

I thinik TA would need at least a 80m OW to have a chance at breaking the OW record though, otherwise, the over 20 million advantage that DH2 has from midnights will be just too much of a gap to breach.

Not exactly.75M Friday pretty much guarantees it the OW record.

[Eldenfirefly]

Well, either that or it would need an absolutely mindblowing Saturday.

[Poseidon]

I thinik TA would need at least a 80m OW to have a chance at breaking the OW record though, otherwise, the over 20 million advantage that DH2 has from midnights will be just too much of a gap to breach.

It probably would destroy opening record with an opening day of 80 Mio. I would guess 185Mio-190Mio then. I still expect an OD of 70Mio which should translate to an amazing OW of 165Mio-170Mio. Edited May 5, 2012 by Poseidon