May 7 - 10, 2012 Weekday Numbers: AVENGERS 12.5 Thurs pg 61

[Fake]

I'm not really working this through my head right now. It's all calculations done on Excel. Like, I'm literally copying and pasting.Is 80% high or low? Seems fitting to me. Xia has it at 6.3M on that Thursday then jumping 138.1% to the same ~15M. That seems to be a more likely scenario IMO, as I don't think it can drop a mere 19% from Monday-Thursday, as my breakdown indicated.

Xia's dailies make sense.... yours don't.And how the hell can any fucking calculation yield a 80% jump for any movie in its 3rd weekend in May? Are you sure you are not using some June/July films to get the average jumps etc.... ?

[Gideon]

no, not yet. But if drops like Spiderman did, hell yea. If this makes 120 or more (and I don't think it will), Avatar is going down.

Oh!!

Wasn't Avatar supposed to be a " loooooog way off "?

A non-directed-by-Cameron movie as 1st Domestic?

Wasn't this the statu quo...on the last century?

lol

[HeyItsMoses]

From the 2nd Weekend Record:

"Mon: $18.89m -66.9% ($226.33m)

Tue: $15.93m -15.7% ($242.27m)

Wed: $13.30m -16.5% ($255.57m)

Thu: $12.10m -9.0% ($267.67m)

Fri: $30.06m+148.5% ($297.73m)

Sat: $44.30m+47.4% ($342.03m)

Sun: $29.50m -33.4% ($371.53m)

2nd Weekend: $103.86m"

Now that we got a great Tuesday hold, I'm revising it to this:

Mon: $18.89m -66.9% ($226.33m)

Tue: $17.67m -6.5% ($244.01m)

Wed: $15.46m -12.5% ($259.47m)

Thu: $13.91m -10.0% ($273.38m)

Fri: $33.45m+140.5% ($306.83m) <$306m in 8 Days! [TDK $313m in 10 Days]

Sat: $47.29m+41.4% ($354.12m) <$354m in 9 Days!! [TDK $351m in 14 Days]

Sun: $31.49m -33.4% ($385.61m)

Ok, After it's Tuesday drop was nearly 10% better than where I had it, I..

LOWERED it's Wed Drop by 4%!

INCREASED it's Thu Drop by 1%!

LOWERED it's Fri Increase by 8%!

LOWERED it's Sat Increase by 6%!

Kept Sunday the same, and it's 2nd Weekend comes to..

$112.23m!

How the hell can my 2nd weekend increase by $10m if I'm giving it lower increases on the weekend?

The Avengers is a Beast.

Also, to note, it's insane how The Avengers 2nd Friday is going to be HIGHER than Dark Shadows entire weekend.

[Shawn Robbins]

What is BO.com predicting for the Avengers second weekend?

Phil should have his predictions out later today. I'm honestly not sure what he's going with yet.

[spizzer]

Xia's dailies make sense.... yours don't.And how the hell can any fucking calculation yield a 80% jump for any movie in its 3rd weekend in May? Are you sure you are not using some June/July films to get the average jumps etc.... ?

Which is exactly what I said, is it not?I'm trying to figure that out. I'm using Thor, which released on the opening May weekend. The idea is to calculate how TA's daily performance relative to its opening compares to Thor's daily performance relative to its opening. It works for day-to-day estimation, but in the long term, it's hard to determine how the relative performance changes, which throws off the daily changes the farther you get from actual data.

[Neo]

Spizzer - The Avengers is such a beast that is changes the rules of math.

[StarSaber]

Great hold...again. And I'll be contributing to todays great hold.

[Jay Beezy]

Phil should have his predictions out later today. I'm honestly not sure what he's going with yet.

If you have any input, tell him to be bold and predict 100M+.

[ladyevenstar22]

He was in the 2nd one. Return to Cranford. He was that rich guys son and his adopted sister was that chick from Downton Abbey.back on topic: Sunday is Mother's Day

i remembered him as soon as i read "he was in the 2nd one..." i actually really liked that character story

[Gideon]

If the movie had decreased of 177k, the talk would still be hot, right?What is the normal situation?

[Captain Craig]

If the movie had decreased of 177k, the talk would still be hot, right?What is the normal situation?

Yeah, cause it would still be under a 10% drop. I'm sure a few someones would try spinning it but that would personal bias, not honesty to historical numbers.

[Gideon]

From the 2nd Weekend Record:

The Avengers is a Beast.

Also, to note, it's insane how The Avengers 2nd Friday is going to be HIGHER than Dark Shadows entire weekend.

I want more amazing fact/data like that. Edited May 9, 2012 by Gideon

[Hatebox]

What else is there to say, except amazing numbers for TA.

I still don't quite understand how it's this big, but then it's the same old story when it comes to box office: no-one knows anything.

[Fake]

Which is exactly what I said, is it not?I'm trying to figure that out. I'm using Thor, which released on the opening May weekend. The idea is to calculate how TA's daily performance relative to its opening compares to Thor's daily performance relative to its opening. It works for day-to-day estimation, but in the long term, it's hard to determine how the relative performance changes, which throws off the daily changes the farther you get from actual data.

Thor had POTC4 opening on its 3rd weekend and taking many of its 3D screens, and it still jumped 98%.80% , 100% or even 120% jump is practically impossible for Avengers.

[ecstasy]

What else is there to say, except amazing numbers for TA.

I still don't quite understand how it's this big, but then it's the same old story when it comes to box office: no-one knows anything.

"true four quadrant nirvana"

Quoted from Rich

[Fake]

I want more amazing fact/data like that.

okay.... Avengers 2nd weekend will be bigger than Dark Shadows entire gross.

[Jay Beezy]

Thor had POTC4 opening on its 3rd weekend and taking many of its 3D screens, and it still jumped 98%.80% , 100% or even 120% jump is practically impossible for Avengers.

You're saying that it should jump at least 120%, right?

[Fake]

You're saying that it should jump at least 120%, right?

Yes.

[Gideon]

okay.... Avengers 2nd weekend will be bigger than Dark Shadows entire gross.

Cool!(nothing against DS but just the pleasure or putting things/numbers in perspective)

[spizzer]

Thor had POTC4 opening on its 3rd weekend and taking many of its 3D screens, and it still jumped 98%.80% , 100% or even 120% jump is practically impossible for Avengers.

Exactly why my dailies don't make sense in the long term (which I pointed out in the initial response), but the total does, and that's what I was getting at. When I'm looking at day-to-day changes, I can account for other variables. Quick, long term daily extrapolations based on this method are going to be prone to error. What I cared about was the total by the end of that 3rd weekend (the lower weekend number was compensated for by higher dailies).