skykisser Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 TDK really shouldn't be on this chart, as it was a July release. All of the others are tightly grouped through 10 days, and no surprise it is because they all released during the same window of time, just in different summers. It's at this point we'll see what kind of legs TA has, as this is when the lines begin to noticeably diverge.I put TDK and Spiderman on there just because people keep saying what if TA has these legs. Realistically it should match neither as they are from a different season(tdk) or box office era (spidey), and the chart shows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doublejack Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 I put TDK and Spiderman on there just because people keep saying what if TA has these legs. Realistically it should match neither as they are from a different season(tdk) or box office era (spidey), and the chart shows it.Gotcha.TA actually tracks well with Spidey early on, but blockbuster movies just don't carry like they used to... so yeah, it should be expected to fall off that path, as we're witnessing. Best case scenario is for TA to play out like IM from here on out. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 I think there's a very good chance that TA beats out Snow White and/or MIB3 the weekend of June 8th. My guess is it will finish better than 5th that weekend.Not a chance in hell. Sorry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuart360 Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 I think there's a very good chance that TA beats out Snow White and/or MIB3 the weekend of June 8th. My guess is it will finish better than 5th that weekend.Snow White will be pretty big, even MIB3 will be still doing decent weekend numbers then, no chance, literaly no chance of that happening unless Snow White and MIB3 are HUGE flops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 MIB has the advantage of Memorial weekend. Let's look at a film that I KNEW was going to disappoint box office wise, inspite of the tracking, that being Temrinator Salvation.T4 opened to an adjusted gross of 45 mill. Now MIB is getting IMAX and 3D. So add another 5 mill to IMAX and say 5 mill to 3D. The absolute rock bottom this will open to is 55 mill. I don't think this is possible as it is still Will Smith, it is still MIB and it is the first real alternative since TA. I think the 4 day will be 80-90 mill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doublejack Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Snow White will be pretty big, even MIB3 will be still doing decent weekend numbers then, no chance, literaly no chance of that happening unless Snow White and MIB3 are HUGE flops. Not a chance in hell. Sorry. LOL. We shall see in a few weeks. I tend to agree it won't happen primarly because TA will be in its sixth weekend by then. However, it is possible one of those movies will indeed turn out ot be a huge flop. The weekend of June 8th, Madagascar and Promethius will open 1-2, in that order. So that means it may not take a lot of money to separate numbers 3 through 5. If TA is still making $12-15M that weekend, which I feel is quite realistic if not even a bit conservative, that very well may be enough to come in ahead of MIB or Snow White. If I had to guess now, btw, I'm thinking Snow White is the possible bomb. That's just something I'm picking up from the trailers and other people's reactions so far. My opinion is subject to change based on how the reviews come in. I don't see it as a slam-dunk hit. There's some risk. One final consideration is that TA is drawing a LOT of kids right now. Madagascar will steal away much of that demographic, but Snow White wills suffer from the loss as well. That could set up both TA and Snow White for smaller than expected weekends, making it a coin flip as to which one comes out on top. All of that said, of course if MIB and Snow White are good films then TA will be #5 that weekend. I just don't think that's a given, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Well, it may not be for sure, but for it to not be number 5, Snow White, Prometheus and Madagascar all need to disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doublejack Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 MIB has the advantage of Memorial weekend. Let's look at a film that I KNEW was going to disappoint box office wise, inspite of the tracking, that being Temrinator Salvation.T4 opened to an adjusted gross of 45 mill. Now MIB is getting IMAX and 3D. So add another 5 mill to IMAX and say 5 mill to 3D. The absolute rock bottom this will open to is 55 mill. I don't think this is possible as it is still Will Smith, it is still MIB and it is the first real alternative since TA. I think the 4 day will be 80-90 mill.I agree with all of this (and I believe MIB will open at #1), however if MIB sucks then after that big opening it will fall on its face. Will it make $15M+ the weekend of June 8th? I don't think that's a given. There will be some competition, and it'll be a couple weeks removed from its open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Yess, good point. I guess the Avengers could pass it. But I have MIB doing about 90 mill for the 4 day and even if it is not that great, I don't see it getting less than 3 multiplier from the 3 day, which should be about 70 mill. It could be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harpospoke Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 The kind of "perspective" we're looking for is quite simple; "how many tickets did such and such movie sell?". Nothing more.Between two movies that share very little in common and two movies that aren't any kind of standard for selling tickets. Each has its own circumstances (including what time of year they were released). I don't see the point other than a desire to downplay success.It's a different kind of movie to TA, but it's still a comic book movie.I wonder. I've heard more claims of "transcending the genre" about TDK than any other movie I can think of. Meanwhile, the usual reaction to comic book films by TDK fans is indifference at best and disdain at worst. Since other comic book films don't avoid the genre, most TDK fans think the others are doing it wrong. (note: "most"...not "all") I don't think the TDK fan base are really fans of the comic book genre. They'll go watch them...but rarely do they love them. I see reviews that point out "flaws" like "It's just a comic book movie", "just a popcorn flick", and "it has no depth". (i.e. they aren't crime dramas like TDK) The best score you can usually get from a TDK fan is 7/10 or 8/10 if you are "only a comic book film". (And to be fair, the opposite attitude may begin to persist from TA fans now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecstasy Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 Between two movies that share very little in common and two movies that aren't any kind of standard for selling tickets. Each has its own circumstances (including what time of year they were released). I don't see the point other than a desire to downplay success.I wonder. I've heard more claims of "transcending the genre" about TDK than any other movie I can think of. Meanwhile, the usual reaction to comic book films by TDK fans is indifference at best and disdain at worst. Since other comic book films don't avoid the genre, most TDK fans think the others are doing it wrong. (note: "most"...not "all") I don't think the TDK fan base are really fans of the comic book genre. They'll go watch them...but rarely do they love them. I see reviews that point out "flaws" like "It's just a comic book movie", "just a popcorn flick", and "it has no depth". (i.e. they aren't crime dramas like TDK) The best score you can usually get from a TDK fan is 7/10 or 8/10 if you are "only a comic book film". (And to be fair, the opposite attitude may begin to persist from TA fans now)Well a lot of them are comic book fans and a lot are fans of the director. Nolan has amassed quite a legion, I must say. The success of Inception proved that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackspider Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 "Putting things in perspective" sounds like "Well....It's not that impressive". Every big money-maker is not very impressive after you "put it in perspective". TDK is suddenly the 28th in box office and Avatar is 14th when we do that. The reason we don't do that is because each big box office hit comes with its own set of rules and its own particular circumstances. I guess your definition of perspective differs from mine. I'm not undermining TA in the slightest. Quite the opposite really. I loved the film and think it's headed for a gross of 640-650m. Some of you TA fanboys get so defensive at the slighest comment that isn't gushing over the film. I guess comparing TA to the highest grossing and ticket selling comic book film is a bad thing now. Okay, my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gideon Posted May 15, 2012 Share Posted May 15, 2012 So the actuals of TheAvengers stayed over 103M by a few dollars.Very fine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted July 19, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted July 19, 2012 Automatic generated message This topic has been closed by a moderator. Reason: No posts in 2 months, adding to Archives If you disagree with this action, please report this post and a moderator or administrator will reconsider it. Kind regards, BOXOFFICE Forums Staff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
