JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[rhfqkddl45]

Presale Numbers 5/14 (Wed) - Toho  some Theaters

 

Shibuya -  https://hlo.tohotheater.jp/net/schedule/043/TNPI2000J01.do

 

189/297...dub (9:30)

212/297...dub (12:15) 

242/297...dub (14:45)

197/297...dub (17:15)

251/297...dub (19:50)

 

*Today 5/14.....1091 / 1485 - 73.4%

*Last Sunday.... 955 / 1296 --73.6%

 

 

Yurakucho/Hibiya - https://hlo.tohotheater.jp/net/schedule/034/TNPI2000J01.do

 

  58/654...eng (9:15)

252/654...eng (19:40)

  52/654...dub (11:50)

  93/654...dub (14:25)

  41/654...dub (17:00)

 

*Today 5/14 ....496 / 3270 --- 15.1% 

*Last Sunday...1044 / 3270 ---- 32%

 

 

Roppongi Hills -https://hlo.tohotheater.jp/net/schedule/009/TNPI2000J01.do

 

    20/79...eng (13:45)

      9/79...eng (16:15)

   14/79...eng (19:00)

     3/79...eng (21:45) 

  71/644...S-A (10:30) 

  91/644...3d eng (13:10) 

  93/644...3d eng (15:50) 

173/644...3d eng (18:30) 

  99/644...3d eng (21:10)

 

*Today 5/14 .. 573 / 3536 --16.1%

*Last Sunday.. 776 / 2342 --33.1%

 

 

Nihonbashi - https://hlo.tohotheater.jp/net/schedule/073/TNPI2000J01.do

 

 86/290...3d eng (13:00) 

 83/290...3d eng (15:30)

 72/290...3d eng (21:10)

 57/404...dub (11:50)

 65/404...dub (14:15)

 66/404...dub (16:40)

382/404...dub (19:05) 

 68/404...dub (21:30)

 36/404...S-A (9:30) 

 

*Today 5/14.. 915 / 3294 -- 27.7%

*Last Sunday.1071 / 2226 -- 48%

 

*4 Theaters Total

 

-Today(Wed)  5/14...... 3075 / 11585-- 26.5%

-Last Sunday 5/11.......3846 / 9134 -- 42.1%

 

 

* multiplier

 

-Last sunday 4 Theaters Total presale = 3846. real Toho Admissions = 57118 (x14.85)

Edited May 13, 2014 by Hans13

[mfantin65]

When do weekend estimates come out usually and who in this thread is the one who posts them?

 

I need to know because of the Summer Game.

 

Thank you.

As chuck said there is no one " official". Corpse is generally 20% low most weeks anticipaofficialg drops that aren't happening.  I go off running data and compare to past phenoms. Mon and Tue are only down 8% from their lowest days of the run that were followed by a 7.5m weekend. There is no new competition this weekend. One can assume down 8% this weekend from last weekends 7.2m, 6.6m for this weekend. The biggest day of the week is ladies day on wed, the biggest demo. That is the bell weather for the weekend. We'll have that estimate in a few hours. 

there is no sign of a major slow down post a huge holiday week and no near term competition. Frozen should reach 200m by june 1 and will continue to do well into summer based on the legs of past all time top ten japanese movies which this has already entered into. no more than 5-15% drops for the next few weekends are expected

Edited May 13, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[keysersoze123]

That does not answer Baumer's question. His question is not about where frozen is going to end(unless he is planning a SOTM around that). 

 

Baumer,

    I would go just with studio estimates. It did happen last sunday at some point(wasn't it 7.1M). ScreenInternational also posts international grosses on sunday. 

[Quigley]

BOM says $11.04M for GW weekend and $143.21M by Sunday May 4. No underestimation of the weekend/total gross.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/japan/?yr=2014&wk=18&p=.htm

[mfantin65]

When do weekend estimates come out usually and who in this thread is the one who posts them?

 

I need to know because of the Summer Game.

 

Thank you.

 

 

That does not answer Baumer's question. His question is not about where frozen is going to end(unless he is planning a SOTM around that). 

 

Baumer,

    I would go just with studio estimates. It did happen last sunday at some point(wasn't it 7.1M). ScreenInternational also posts international grosses on sunday. 

Got it.  We look at 4 theaters now that represent 36% market share. They report admissions by 900am ny time sunday morning. The admission to dollar multiplier we use has proven accurate. there have been estimates 10hours later thay have been further off.

Edited May 14, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[mfantin65]

That does not answer Baumer's question. His question is not about where frozen is going to end(unless he is planning a SOTM around that). 

 

Baumer,

    I would go just with studio estimates. It did happen last sunday at some point(wasn't it 7.1M). ScreenInternational also posts international grosses on sunday. 

He works for a box office reporting site. I dont think he wants to regurgitate 12 hour old data from a competing source. Thats like selling day old newspapers.

Edited May 14, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[mfantin65]

BOM says $11.04M for GW weekend and $143.21M by Sunday May 4. No underestimation of the weekend/total gross.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/japan/?yr=2014&wk=18&p=.htm

His data is off all the time.

Fig newton?

[Quigley]

 

His data is off all the time.

Fig newton?

 

 

The grosses he reports in yen:

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/japan/?yr=2014&wk=11&currency=local&p=.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/japan/?yr=2014&wk=12&currency=local&p=.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/japan/?yr=2014&wk=13&currency=local&p=.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/japan/?yr=2014&wk=14&currency=local&p=.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/japan/?yr=2014&wk=15&currency=local&p=.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/japan/?yr=2014&wk=16&currency=local&p=.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/japan/?yr=2014&wk=17&currency=local&p=.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/japan/?yr=2014&wk=18&currency=local&p=.htm

 

are very consistent with Corpse's numbers:

 

Frozen's Path to ¥20 billion+ ($200 million+)

¥763 million ($7.5 million)

¥872 million ($8.5 million), +13%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million)

¥881 million ($8.6 million), +01%, ¥5.28 billion ($51.6 million)

¥850 million ($8.3 million), -03%, ¥7.71 billion ($74.8 million)

¥841 million ($8.2 million), -01%, ¥9.28 billion ($90.7 million) 

¥826 million ($8.1 million), -02%, ¥10.73 billion ($104.8 million) 

¥772 million ($7.6 million), -07%, ¥12.10 billion ($118.4 million) 

¥1.09 billion ($10.8 million), +40%, ¥14.60 billion ($143.2 million) *Estimate*

¥738 million ($7.2 million), -33%, ¥17.08 billion ($167.4 million)

 

In light of these grosses, I agree his estimates aren't accurate but his actuals are. He has posted the actuals.

 

As for the total gross, ¥14.63B as of Sunday, May 3, he used an exchange rate of 102.16 to calculate. How inaccurate can that be?

Edited May 14, 2014 by Quigley

[Quigley]

Speaking of which, he just posted week 9: ¥739M weekend, in line with Corpse's number once again. In dollars, though, the total gross is $166.95M, way higher than the estimate of $164.4M everyone reported on Sunday.

 

In dollars: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/japan/?yr=2014&wk=19&p=.htm

In yen: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/japan/?yr=2014&wk=19&currency=local&p=.htm

 

The total in yen is 16,999,230,520 i.e.very close to the reported 17,078,292,150 mentioned earlier in this thread.

Edited May 14, 2014 by Quigley

[Quigley]

In this case, 166.95 - 143.2 = 23.75M

 

So, 

 

Damienroc........24.601m
Murgatroyd.......23.10

 

Murgatroyd won.

[Quigley]

Actually, the total gross figures in dollars at BOM are probably not accurate, so we shoudld stick with the reported $164.4M total which Disney calculated using each week's individual exchange rates.

 

Challenge: Does someone have the time and patience to actually calculate the total gross in dollars, by converting each week's (or even each day's) gross based on the weekly/daily exchange rates? (just to check if that's the case for the reported gross)

Edited May 14, 2014 by Quigley

[mfantin65]

Many in the thread agreed that 143.2 was low. That was confirmed when a tuesday number came out last week.  the mon and tues total did not figure right with the prior cum. If WE believe it was incorrect, and WE were submitting the predictions, then we decide the outcome. Not Ray Subers. Either way, it was just for fun, and I did give the 1.2 million to the prior week for that weeks prediction winner before last week was over. Let it go.

Nestle tollhouse soft baked chocolate chip?

[BadAtGender]

I don't think there's any reason to doubt Disney's accounting. It's their money, after all, and when all is said and done, it's their number that is going to be taken as official.

 

Also, as far as international numbers go, I don't think BOM is making its own estimates or calculations based on exchange rates. They're just going by what the sources they have report.

Edited May 14, 2014 by DamienRoc

[mfantin65]

Actually, the total gross figures in dollars at BOM are probably not accurate, so we shoudld stick with the reported $164.4M total which Disney calculated using each week's individual exchange rates.

 

Challenge: Does someone have the time and patience to actually calculate the total gross in dollars, by converting each week's (or even each day's) gross based on the weekly/daily exchange rates? (just to check if that's the case for the reported gross)

164 is wrong. The exchange rate has been 102.2 most of the time. Not a great deal of fluctuation. +/- .5%

pecan sandy?

[Quigley]

I don't think there's any reason to doubt Disney's accounting. It's their money, after all, and when all is said and done, it's their number that is going to be taken as official.

 

Also, as far as international numbers go, I don't think BOM is making its own estimates or calculations based on exchange rates. They're just going by what the sources they have report.

 

But if you check the weekly charts that they post on "International", the total grosses are usually different than the ones reported on Sunday. Above each weekend chart there is an exchange rate and each week, they divide the total gross by that weekend's exchange rate.

[Quigley]

 

164 is wrong. The exchange rate has been 102.2 most of the time. Not a great deal of fluctuation. +/- .5%

pecan sandy?

 

 

An exchange rate of 102.2 would give ¥14.63B / 0.1022 = $143.15M as of Sunday, May 3, so the fluctuation does actually matter...

 

And it is actually more than 0.5%, because such a fluctuation could only take the gross of 143.15 up to 143.15 * 1.005 = 143.87M, not 144.4M

Edited May 14, 2014 by Quigley

[mfantin65]

Its japanese box office and its going for a japanese record. Japans report will make it official. Did you ever hear of Enron? Dont take stock in corporate reports.

[mfantin65]

So, the numbers were a bit off up until Sunday. BOM had it at 143.2, which most of us thought looked at least a million low, but doing a little math... 156.933 - 12.562 (mon-tues) = 144.371 That Wed number seems ok, although I was hoping it would hold over 2m. 12.562 Mon-Tues, 1.8 Wed, maybe another 1.8 for Thurs-Fri and a 6.5-7m weekend. Looks like 22.6-23.2m week

With the actual coming in, the week was under predicted by 1.2m. Last week was 25.7mQueen Elsa was the weekly winner w 25.8 closest to 25.7mIncardine was the weekend winner w 10.8 closest to 11.1m

Holy fuck. We all concurred it was off. Thats all that matters. Edited May 14, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[Murgatroyd]

Graphs again.

 

 

 

 

 

I'll be very surprised if it doesn't beat the widely reported numbers for Howl soon, and Corpse's numbers are likely.  Princess Mononoke (not shown) is going down in three weeks at the outside, and two wouldn't surprise me.  I still say Spirited Away is out of reach, but Titanic isn't.

[catlover]

Its japanese box office and its going for a japanese record. Japans report will make it official. Did you ever hear of Enron? Dont take stock in corporate reports.

 

The problem is there are no reports from Japan about that weekend (5/3-5/4). The only actuals we have are from BOM and it says $11,037,689 weekend and $143,207,359 total. They probably got it from the studio or other reliable source. I think we have to accept it. Besides, the numbers they have for this past weekend are pretty accurate (the total is kinda low, but still very close).