JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Sophia Jane]

1.5B is the great target for Avatar 2 here.

[Issac Newton]

¥1.5B, probably, not a great target for ¥10B+ potential film //

[Claudio]

9 hours ago, Bruce said:

1.5B is the great target for Avatar 2 here.

Yup, for the opening weekend.

[The Dark Alfred]

Probably meant 15b? I know that Avatar was huge, and A2 is no doubt going to have monster openings across the globe, but it also have a potential of not being good and not getting great WoM. The teaser looked trash. It was only a teaser of course. It's still going to do well, just maybe we won't do gigantic numbers that most expecting, especially in a leggy market.

[BruiseCruise]

From Corpse:

I want to wait another day (at least ~12 hours) to check sales before saying Lightyear is going to bomb, but it's looking awfully likely.

Theaters have given it their biggest screen(s) and it has a lot of showings, as you'd expect for a major Disney/Pixar release, so they they could be spread out, but I don't even think that's the case as pretty much every showing I checked at many of the busiest locations for Friday and Saturday only have 10-20 (or a little more) seats sold right now.

Very dire sign for Disney animation in the market, which used to be their strongest (or one of them). This is their first proper theatrical release since 2019 (everything else wasn't released or faced boycotts due to Disney+). Could be another Brave. And if that happens, Disney's 2022 will be their third consecutive dead year in Japan with zero hits.

[Sophia Jane]

1 hour ago, Claudio said:

Yup, for the opening weekend.

I think I make something wrong,I mean 15B

[Issac Newton]

"Toy Story" Franchise

 

① Toy Story - x¥1.50B

② Toy Story 2 - x¥3.45B

③ Toy Story 3 - ¥10.80B

④ Toy Story 4 - ¥10.09B

 

If you see Ghostbusters &Resident Evil, Spin-off/Reboots aren't doing any well in Japan. Applying the same logic, should do better than them, ranging at ¥1.0B-¥2.0B. Well, Overseas reviews are already at ---_---. But, OD means nothing, will look at OP before drawing any conclusions.

 

[JustLurking]

Avatar 2 is a wildcard, not really sure we can expect it to match the first one here but would be an excellent result. Though given the difference in ER matching here will be a big drop anyway. 15.6b in 2009 got A1 188M usd,  15.6b in 2022 gets it...115M? yikes.

 

Corpse is right btw, Lightyear presales look bad both for friday and saturday.

Edited June 30, 2022 by JustLurking

[Issac Newton]

On Wed (06/29), Paramount "Top Gun Maverick" exceeded ¥7.0B in 34-days. 1st Imported Film to exceed ¥7.0B since "Star Wars: Episode IX – The Rise of Skywalker" (Dec. 2019). It's now 97th Highest Grossing Film in Japan.

 

⚪ Total Until Wed (06/29) - ¥7,048,504,450 / 4,509,190 attendees 

 

⚪ 06/27~06/29 - ¥303,955,230 / 196,130 attendees

[JustLurking]

Lightyear debuting to less than a third of TS4's OD on a national discount day sure is something.

[Gavin Feng]

22 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

On Wed (06/29), Paramount "Top Gun Maverick" exceeded ¥7.0B in 34-days. 1st Imported Film to exceed ¥7.0B since "Star Wars: Episode IX – The Rise of Skywalker" (Dec. 2019). It's now 97th Highest Grossing Film in Japan.

 

⚪ Total Until Wed (06/29) - ¥7,048,504,450 / 4,509,190 attendees 

 

⚪ 06/27~06/29 - ¥303,955,230 / 196,130 attendees

 

Conan movie 2022 down?

[Issac Newton]

7 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

Conan movie 2022 down?

That's a ...

 

Spoiler

Yes

 

Spoiler

Conan can leg up to ¥9.2B/¥9.4B, while TGM is looking forward for ¥10B....

 

Spoiler

But, far from Jujutsu Kaisen Movie 0 (¥13.76B), to become 2022 highest grossing film in Japan.

 

[Issac Newton]

— Opening Day (Est.) —

 

① Laid-Back Camp: Movie - ¥120M (#1st)

② Buzz: LightYear - ¥75M (Occupancy less than 10%) (#3rd)

③ Elvis - ¥50M (#4th)

Edited July 1, 2022 by Issac Newton
These are Estimates

[John Rambo]

July 1st (Friday)
1 #YuruCamp $1,16M 
2 #TopGunMaverick $770k/ $54,33M (-8% LF) 
3 #Lightyear $580k 
4 #Elvis $400k 
5 #TheQuintessentialQuintuplets $350k/$13,8M 
6 #Broker  $280k/$2,7M 
7 #DragonBallSuperSuperHero $180k/ $12,7M 
8 #ShinUltraman $125k/$31,2M

[Issac Newton]

— Saturday Estimates —

 

① Top Gun Maverick - ¥180M / ¥7.39B

② Buzz: LightYear - ¥130M / ¥205M

③ Laid-Back Camp/Yuru Camp - ¥110M / ¥230M

④ Dragon Ball Super - ¥70M / ¥1800M

⑤ Elvis - ¥50M / ¥100M

 

Misc.

■ Conan 2022 - ¥9.08B

■ Shin Ultraman - ¥4.13B

■ The QQ Movie - ¥1.87B

[BruiseCruise]

Possible that Slam Dunk beats One Piece Red?

[Issac Newton]

6 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Possible that Slam Dunk beats One Piece Red?

Yes, possible.

 

Optimistically thinking ¥5.0B but who knows how high it can go //

[JustLurking]

I think it will so long as it's good. There's a ton of potential here IMO. I'm just talking out of gut impression but I think this can easily blast past 5b if it's well-received. I asked a friend who knows much more than me about production and they said the film has some very good names attached to it and will likely be very good looking, so it's really more of a matter of whether the writing/direction (being Inoue's first attempt at both for anime) holds up.

 

Slam Dunk is still amazingly relevant on the manga side of things and the cult status is very strong with it. The novelty of receiving a new project after so long is going to help out a lot.

Edited July 2, 2022 by JustLurking

[John Rambo]

🇯🇵 JP B0
  July 2

1 #TopGunMaverick $1.3M/ $55.63M(-26% LS)
2 #Lightyear $1.03M/$1.61M  
3 #YuruCamp $1.02M/$2.18M 
4 #DragonBallSuperSuperHero $520k/$13.22M 
5 #Elvis$450k/$870k 
6 #TheQuintessentialQuintuplets $330k/$14.13M 
7 #Broker $270k/$3M 
8 #ShinUltraman $240k/$31,4M

[Issac Newton]

— Sunday Estimates —

 

① Top Gun Maverick - ¥190M / ¥7.58B

② Buzz: LightYear - ¥165M / ¥370M

③ Laid-Back Camp/Yuru Camp - ¥90M / ¥320M

④ Dragon Ball Super - ¥80M / ¥1.88B

⑤ Elvis - ¥45M / ¥145M

 

Misc.

◉ Conan 2022 - ¥9.11B

◉ Shin Ultraman - ¥4.16B

◉ The QQ Movie - ¥1.90B