JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[mfantin65]

In light of more amazing numbers.

 

Omni, its time for you to concede

 

 116.6m  

 

 

I see you prefer blonds so you can use blond Keanu and keep it as your avatar until the end of frozen run in Japan 

 

Edited April 4, 2014 by mfantin65

[mfantin65]

Yes, next Monday is the last day of SB. Interestingly, next next Monday (4/14), happens to be the TOHO day--another

discount day as the opening day of Frozen in May 14th.

Im trying to get my projections straight down the road. Im looking at the calendar for GW.

April 29 it begins on Tues

Ladies day wed

May 1 discount day on thur

Then May 3, 4, 5 on sat sun mon.

 

Wiki says most people take the whole time off. Will adults take the whole week plus following Monday off? School out the whole time?

Edited April 4, 2014 by mfantin65

[LABAS]

In 2014, the weekends are placed unfavorably, creating an isolated holiday during the first half and a four-day holiday period in the second half of the Golden Week. Travel activity is anticipated to peak on May 3 with people leaving the large urban centers and on May 5 and 6 in the opposite direction.

 

 

Because the  important national holidays fall on Sun, May  6 should also be a holiday  for people to travel .

Although April 30 ~ May 2 are not national holidays, most schools and companies are closed for

people to enjoy their vacations. This is why the price of hotels are especially high in the golden week.

Thus, the GW of 2014 falls on April 29~~May 6.

 

And May 7 is another Ladies day !

Edited April 4, 2014 by LABAS

[Omni]

Yeah, I've never seen a movie that is still playing in theaters but already available on DVD at the same time, even when that movie has crazy legs. So I don't think we have to worry about DVD release problem that killed Frozen's legs in North America.

Nice! So Frozen should stay in the top 10 till June!

I guess they'll release the DVD in early December.

 

  2.5m Th

15.9m midweek.  my multipier was a little low last week, could be 16.2m

67.5m Total

 

So SB carries over to Monday, hmmm... I am now certain we have at least a revenue increase for the WE, 8.7-9m

76m+ total on sunday 

It looks like I overestimated it, for once Went with 68M on Friday.

With that extra day of Spring Break, it better remain above 8M over the weekend. Another rise would be epic!

 

Maybe 90M could even fall on the post-SB Sunday!!!

 

In light of more amazing numbers.

 

Omni, its time for you to concede

 

 116.6m  

 

 

I see you prefer blonds so you can use blond Keanu and keep it as your avatar until the end of frozen run in Japan 

No no no, I'll wait for post-SB numbers first. I'll (hopefully) concede to you in 8 days.

(And I don't prefer blonds xD)

 

In 2014, the weekends are placed unfavorably, creating an isolated holiday during the first half and a four-day holiday period in the second half of the Golden Week. Travel activity is anticipated to peak on May 3 with people leaving the large urban centers and on May 5 and 6 in the opposite direction.

Hmm, does it mean we'll get huge weekdays followed by a somehow deflated weekend?

 

[mfantin65]

Hmm, does it mean we'll get huge weekdays followed by a somehow deflated weekend?

I looked up 2008 weekend, holidays fall on same days. I saw 50-100% bumps for midweek, 28th to the 2nd. Then 20% increase for the weekend. Then the next midweek held 100%.Using your 12m estimate next week followed by 2 15% drops it will be at 4.5mw/4we, 106 tot on the 27th. starting on the 28th- 8m mw, 5we, 8mw.3we. 130 tot. Using my 14m post SB week. With 15% drops. 5mw/4.5we, 110m. 10m 5.5m 10m 3.5m. 139m totStarting w 14m and 2 10% drops to 6/5.5, 112 tot. 12mw 6.5we 12mw 4we 147m totThats not far fetched when you consider TS3 was on its 7th weekend during obon and it did 13mw/6.5we. Increase from 9mw/5we(summer week).Frozen will be on its 8th weekend.I think I just heard James Cameron and Robert Downey Jr say WTF? Edited April 4, 2014 by mfantin65

[mfantin65]

Ah screw it. Why wait..Top 5 all time animated owned by Miyazaki's Royal Flush, busted. The 10 of diamonds- The Wind Rises, Trumped!123,500,000 LOCKED!SK top OS admissions. 10,288,100125.500,000 LOCKED!

[Omni]

With SB ending on Monday, next week should be closer to your estimate. Of course, that extra day means that the following week will drop a little more.

 

I'll consider 120M+ to be locked only after seeing the 5th weekend being higher than 6M or at least close to that. Not going to put the cart in front of Sven!

[LABAS]

M   T W T F   S   S

First W。 ----------------------------------------18517-- 29035-- 38186Second。 9396--10976--21854--12231--33278--32340--39828Third。   14958--19027--46478--25446--21273--29380--44173Fourth。  25661--41430--43550--25701--22309--28912

 

1.5% frop from last Sat, but considering the pricey tickets.. the gross should be the same or a bit better

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Weekend Forecast [04/05-06]

 

 

01 (01) ¥790 million ($7.7 million), Frozen (Disney) Week 402 (02) ¥210 million ($2.0 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (Toho) Week 503 (03) ¥145 million ($1.4 million), Heisei Rider vs. Showa Rider: Kamen Rider Taisen feat. Super Sentai (Toei) Week 204 (05) ¥105 million ($1.0 million), Team Batista: Final Kerberos's Portrait (Toho) Week 205 (04) ¥100 million ($980,000), The Snow White Murder Case (Shochiku) Week 206 (06) ¥75 million ($730,000), The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Fox) Week 307 (07) ¥60 million ($580,000), Pretty Cure All Stars: New Stage 3 (Toei) Week 408 (--) ¥50 million ($340,000), One Third (Kadokawa) NEW09 (08) ¥45 million ($430,000), God's Medical Records 2 (Toho) Week 310 (--) ¥40 million ($380,000), Cherry Blossoms Bloom (Toei) NEWDead weekend as usual to start April off.Frozen exceeded ¥6 billion ($60 million) and 5 million admissions on Wednesday, its 20th-day in release, and outpaced last week's weekdays this past week, too, thanks to Tuesday being the first (a discount day).It should be at ~¥6.8 billion ($66 million) or so heading into the weekend, so expect a massive four week total of around ¥7.5 billion ($73 million) as Spring Break comes to an end.At this point, even if it collapses starting on Monday, missing ¥10 billion (~$100 million) is nearly impossible. ¥12 billion (~$120 million) is the goal, and anything above exactly ¥11 billion will make it the highest-grossing non-Miyazaki animated film of all-time, exceeding all of Pixar's efforts.

Edited April 5, 2014 by eren jaeger

[cremino]

Corpse

 

¥10 Billion Club01 :: ¥30.40 - Spirited Away (2001)02 :: ¥26.20 - Titanic (1997)03 :: ¥22.00 - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)04 :: ¥20.30 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)05 :: ¥19.30 - Princess Mononoke (1997)06 :: ¥17.35 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)07 :: ¥17.30 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)08 :: ¥15.60 - Avatar (2009)09 :: ¥15.50 - Ponyo (2008)10 :: ¥13.70 - The Last Samurai (2003)11 :: ¥13.50 - E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982)11 :: ¥13.50 - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)13 :: ¥13.40 - Armageddon (1998)14 :: ¥12.85 - Jurassic Park (1993)15 :: ¥12.70 - Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace (1999)16 :: ¥12.02 - The Wind Rises (2013)17 :: ¥11.80 - Alice in Wonderland (2010)18 :: ¥11.00 - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)18 :: ¥11.00 - Finding Nemo (2003)18 :: ¥11.00 - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)18 :: ¥11.00 - Antarctic Story (1983)22 :: ¥10.90 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)23 :: ¥10.80 - Toy Story 3 (2010)24 :: ¥10.65 - Independence Day (1996)25 :: ¥10.32 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)26 :: ¥10.10 - Bayside Shakedown (1998)27 :: ¥10.02 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)$100 Million Club01 :: $244.0 - Spirited Away (2001)02 :: $212.0 - Titanic (1997)03 :: $207.0 - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)04 :: $188.7 - Avatar (2009)05 :: $165.5 - Princess Mononoke (1997)06 :: $164.5 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)07 :: $163.7 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)08 :: $156.0 - Ponyo (2008)09 :: $147.8 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)10 :: $142.8 - Alice in Wonderland (2010)11 :: $130.7 - Toy Story 3 (2010)12 :: $126.7 - The Last Samurai (2003)13 :: $125.3 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011)14 :: $125.1 - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)15 :: $123.5 - The Wind Rises (2013)16 :: $117.6 - Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace (1999)17 :: $114.9 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)18 :: $111.9 - Arrietty (2010)19 :: $102.4 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)20 :: $102.4 - Finding Nemo (2003)21 :: $100.2 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)22 :: $100.0 - Armageddon (1998)Most-Attended Films Club01 :: 23.50 million - Spirited Away (2001)02 :: 19.50 million - Tokyo Olympiad (1965)03 :: 16.83 million - Titanic (1997)04 :: 16.20 million - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)05 :: 15.50 million - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)06 :: 14.20 million - Princess Mononoke (1997)07 :: 14.00 million - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)08 :: 13.00 million - Emperor Meiji and the Great Russo-Japanese War (1958)09 :: 12.87 million - Ponyo (2008)10 :: 12.60 million - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)11 :: 12.55 million - Godzilla Vs. King Kong (1962)12 :: 12.10 million - The Last Samurai (2003)13 :: 11.00 million - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)14 :: 10.69 million - E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982)15 :: 10.10 million - Avatar (2009)16 :: 9.72 million - The Wind Rises (2013)17 :: 9.61 million - Godzilla (1954)18 :: 9.00 million - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)19 :: 8.90 million - Armageddon (1998)20 :: 8.80 million - The Sinking of Japan (1973)21 :: 8.60 million - Finding Nemo (2003)22 :: 8.55 million - Jurassic Park (1993)23 :: 8.40 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)24 :: 8.34 million - The Return of Godzilla (1955)25 :: 8.30 million - Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace (1999)

 

Frozen should make a competitive run at the Top 15 for all three of these clubs. Although... if it doesn't slow down too much after this weekend, then maybe Top 10 ...

[Incarnadine]

 

Corpse

 

Weekend Forecast [04/05-06]

 

 

01 (01) ¥790 million ($7.7 million), Frozen (Disney) Week 402 (02) ¥210 million ($2.0 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (Toho) Week 503 (03) ¥145 million ($1.4 million), Heisei Rider vs. Showa Rider: Kamen Rider Taisen feat. Super Sentai (Toei) Week 204 (05) ¥105 million ($1.0 million), Team Batista: Final Kerberos's Portrait (Toho) Week 205 (04) ¥100 million ($980,000), The Snow White Murder Case (Shochiku) Week 206 (06) ¥75 million ($730,000), The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Fox) Week 307 (07) ¥60 million ($580,000), Pretty Cure All Stars: New Stage 3 (Toei) Week 408 (--) ¥50 million ($340,000), One Third (Kadokawa) NEW09 (08) ¥45 million ($430,000), God's Medical Records 2 (Toho) Week 310 (--) ¥40 million ($380,000), Cherry Blossoms Bloom (Toei) NEWDead weekend as usual to start April off.Frozen exceeded ¥6 billion ($60 million) and 5 million admissions on Wednesday, its 20th-day in release, and outpaced last week's weekdays this past week, too, thanks to Tuesday being the first (a discount day).It should be at ~¥6.8 billion ($66 million) or so heading into the weekend, so expect a massive four week total of around ¥7.5 billion ($73 million) as Spring Break comes to an end.At this point, even if it collapses starting on Monday, missing ¥10 billion (~$100 million) is nearly impossible. ¥12 billion (~$120 million) is the goal, and anything above exactly ¥11 billion will make it the highest-grossing non-Miyazaki animated film of all-time, exceeding all of Pixar's efforts.

 

 

So, we are looking at over 73 million at the end of the 4th weekend.

 

Last weekend I noticed both Monsters University and Toy Story 3 both made close to double their total after their 4th weekend, if that holds true for Frozen it would end in the 146 million area.

 

After weekend #4

 

MU - $46,982,545 after 4th weekend, $90,141,508 total

 

TS3- $62,557,777 after 4th weekend, $126,660,533 total

[keysersoze123]

So, we are looking at over 73 million at the end of the 4th weekend.

 

Last weekend I noticed both Monsters University and Toy Story 3 both made close to double their total after their 4th weekend, if that holds true for Frozen it would end in the 146 million area.

 

After weekend #4

 

MU - $46,982,545 after 4th weekend, $90,141,508 total

 

TS3- $62,557,777 after 4th weekend, $126,660,533 total

 

Didn't MU and TS3 benefit from summer weekdays most of their run? 

[mfantin65]

So, we are looking at over 73 million at the end of the 4th weekend.Last weekend I noticed both Monsters University and Toy Story 3 both made close to double their total after their 4th weekend, if that holds true for Frozen it would end in the 146 million area.After weekend #4MU - $46,982,545 after 4th weekend, $90,141,508 totalTS3- $62,557,777 after 4th weekend, $126,660,533 total

its looking more like 76m on sun. MU and TS3 had summer to continue boosting their numbers but frozen performed stronger before SB started and could continue to post numbers next week that will be like their summer numbers. I think that your observation could work. 152 is possible. Edited April 5, 2014 by mfantin65

[druv10]

Didn't MU and TS3 benefit from summer weekdays most of their run? 

 

True but Golden Week will help Frozen tremendously at the end of it's run. Also, as Corpse posted about multipliers, Frozen is very likely to hit 15+. I really think 150M maybe more is possible.

[LABAS]

OW。--------------------------- ---------------  49224--58491--64414Second。19967--21651--43281--26963--68297--67663--72506

Third 。 28363--34679-- 83765--40795--37218--58906--80440Fourth。  40807--69958---74515--39964--38667--60994 !!!

 

What a beautiful night ~ Better than last Sat both in am and ticket price...

[edroger3]

OW。--------------------------- ---------------  49224--58491--64414Second。19967--21651--43281--26963--68297--67663--72506

Third 。 28363--34679-- 83765--40795--37218--58906--80440Fourth。  40807--69958---74515--39964--38667--60994 !!!

 

What a beautiful night ~ Better than last Sat both in am and ticket price...

Total is 61448, you forgot:

**494　**1209　**3　アナと雪の女王　（３Ｄ・字幕版・ＡＴＭＯＳ・ＴＣＸ）

so what a little more beautiful night.

[Incarnadine]

OW。--------------------------- ---------------  49224--58491--64414Second。19967--21651--43281--26963--68297--67663--72506

Third 。 28363--34679-- 83765--40795--37218--58906--80440Fourth。  40807--69958---74515--39964--38667--60994 !!!

 

What a beautiful night ~ Better than last Sat both in am and ticket price...

 

So, we are potentially looking at a 3rd consecutive weekend increase. I'm no expert on the Japanese market, but I can't imagine a movie increasing every weekend from its OW like this isn't incredibly rare, or maybe even unprecedented.

[mfantin65]

Up 3.5%. Historically, nearly all movies drop 20-30% this weekend. This is a good sign for strong legs to come. I dont know if sunday can do 80k like last weeks surprise, however, just 70k would represent only a 6% drop for the weekend, but a 1% increase in revenue. 4m day20m week71.5 totalEstimate 8.7m- 9.5m weekend24..7m- 25.5m week76m+ total

Edited April 5, 2014 by mfantin65

[catlover]

True but Golden Week will help Frozen tremendously at the end of it's run. Also, as Corpse posted about multipliers, Frozen is very likely to hit 15+. I really think 150M maybe more is possible.

 

But MU & TS3 also had Obon holiday, which has pretty much the same effects as Golden Week. Frozen won't have strong weekdays like they did. But it looks like Frozen skews older so weekdays will still be good I think. Not as good as SB weekdays, but stronger than MU & TS3 without summer, and maybe even as strong as MU & TS3 in summer.

 

And that is an amazing Saturday number! That bodes well for another increase this weekend . It depends on Sunday number. But even with a drop on Sunday from last week, weekend number could still increase.

Edited April 5, 2014 by catlover

[LABAS]

Another reason for this Saturday's bump is the following

*1075　**1160　**4　アナと雪の女王（日本語吹替版・ＴＣＸスクリーン上映）

 

TCX means Toho Cinemas Extra Large Screen , an equivalent of IMAX

Last Saturday, I only found Frozen subtitle version was screening on this Japanese IMAX

This Saturday, Disney begins to play dubbed Frozen here and the result is pretty nice

1075 / 1160 , almost full house....