JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[mfantin65]

How should I believe your 'lock for 300M'?

in SK i said it was "on pace" not locked. It was apparent that it could either hold like avatar or crash like miracle in cell no 7. It went the way of the latter.

[mfantin65]

Sun 2200109..........13656 -9.9%Toho.......54061 -12.8%movix.....20457 -5%Kinezo...11562 -16%

Edited May 25, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[Cynosure]

Great numbers. Sure, it's a double digit decrease but it follows last weekend's increase.

Edited May 25, 2014 by Cynosure

[edroger3]

Our blog starts another service: daily ranking updated about every 20 minutes: this is at 21.45:

 

　*1　*99760　アナと雪の女王　*2　*23449　青天の霹靂　*3　*20969　テルマエ・ロマエⅡ　*4　*12410　名探偵コナン２０１４ 異次元…　*5　*12026　闇金ウシジマくん２　*6　*10469　アメイジング・スパイダーマン２　*7　**8445　機動戦士ガンダムＵＣ（ユニコ…　*8　**6740　ＷＯＯＤ ＪＯＢ！～神去なあ…　*9　**6236　クレヨンしんちゃん２０１４ …　10　**6077　悪夢ちゃん Ｔｈｅ 夢ｏｖｉｅ

 

Frozen 51%

2-10th combined 49%

Edited May 25, 2014 by edroger

[mfantin65]

Its a very good week. Last weeks 9% bump is rare in run like this without holiday help. I dont look at this as a "steep" drop and can't be ruled as the beginning of more to come. It was only down an average of 2% from two weeks ago. That is the more important aspect that needs to be considered.1.10m Mon +12%0.77m Tue -2%1.68m Wed -10%0.72m Thu -17%0.96m Fri -3.6% 5.23m midweek -12.3% 3.05m Sat -14%3.95m Sun -10%7.00m weekend-11.5% its going to be close if movix stay strong12.23m week-12% 193.5m Total19.77b Yen The runs average exchange rate is 102.15 yen. Projected Range278m Certain---- 12x this weekend is the floor320m Likely------ 18x My gut here says  HP7.2 #4WW beat362m Possible--- 24x E.T. beaten first run 404m Domestic-- 30x Within the realm of "anything is f-ing possible", like IM3 going down once was and now is passed!

Edited May 25, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[mfantin65]

Tracking the true weekend multiplier. The column that holds steadiest and closest to its mean becomes the likely target.
Consistantly ascending total is too low a multiple, descending is  too high. Summer midweeks will cause an increase.
 
 
Wk   WE    Tot       12x      18x      24x     30x
 
 9)  7.2   167.4     253.8    297.0    340.2   383.4
10)  7.9   181.3     276.1    322.5    370.9   418.3
11)  6.85  194.3     276.5    317.6    359.3   399.8

Lets go with a 10% drop next week and see how this looks.

12)  6.3   205.0     280.6    318.4    356.2   394.0

 

12x steadily increases as the higher multiples decrease. we need a couple more weeks to tell but it is looking at 15x right now.

These multiples are based on steady drops should that start being consistant and do not account for summer midweek bump or a drawn out run which I estimate at 30m that can be added to the projected total. SA averaged a 20 multiple at weekends 12 thru 18 with the extended run factored in

Edited May 28, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[mfantin65]

For the first time the sunday studio estimate doesn't look short.

Edited May 25, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[edroger3]

New OS total is 818,7M$. + 13,1M$ from last sunday and + 7,6M$ from thursday.

[edroger3]

New estimate total for Japan: 193,7M$. + 14,3M$ from last sunday estimate and + 12,6M$ from actuals

[mfantin65]

Hans13, you can put 16000 in your table for sat so we have comparable numbers for next week. They reported 60% of their seats.  16000 was derived from that and the percentage decline on sunday confirms it as well.

 

8000.......1430

13300.....1900

16000.....2300

Edited May 25, 2014 by T E Lawrence

[PatrickvD]

For the first time in forever the sunday studio estimate doesn't look short.

 

Fixed it. 

[tong kosong]

FROZEN is #1 in Japan for the 11th straight week w/ $193.7M total & #4 all-time, passing HOWL'S MOVING CASTLE and PRINCESS MONONOKE.

— Exhibitor Relations (@ERCboxoffice)

May 25, 2014

[edroger3]

 

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

FROZEN is #1 in Japan for the 11th straight week w/ $193.7M total & #4 all-time, passing HOWL'S MOVING CASTLE and PRINCESS MONONOKE.

— Exhibitor Relations (@ERCboxoffice) May 25, 2014

 

According by Corpse/Forum data Howl's MC is still ahead (22B yen/ 207M$).

[catlover]

Yeah, that's in line with estimations and projections here. Finally. lol

 

According by Corpse/Forum data Howl's MC is still ahead (22B yen/ 207M$).

 

I seems that they're using 19.6b yen as the total for HMC. Interestingly, almost all sources in Japanese (including Japanese forums) also use this 19.6b instead of 22b.

Edited May 25, 2014 by catlover

[druv10]

Per Corpse

 

Frozen's Path to ¥25 billion+ ($250 million+)

 

¥763 million ($7.5 million)

¥872 million ($8.5 million), +13%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million)

¥881 million ($8.6 million), +01%, ¥5.28 billion ($51.6 million)

¥850 million ($8.3 million), -03%, ¥7.71 billion ($74.8 million)

¥841 million ($8.2 million), -01%, ¥9.28 billion ($90.7 million) 

¥826 million ($8.1 million), -02%, ¥10.73 billion ($104.8 million) 

¥772 million ($7.6 million), -07%, ¥12.10 billion ($118.4 million) 

¥1.12 billion ($11.1 million), +46%, ¥14.62 billion ($143.4 million) 

¥738 million ($7.2 million), -34%, ¥17.08 billion ($167.4 million)

¥807 million ($7.9 million), +09%, ¥18.53 billion ($181.8 million) 

¥707 million ($6.9 million), -12%, ¥19.80 billion ($194.1 million) *Est*

 

Top 10-All Time

01 :: ¥30.40 billion ($244.0 million) - Spirited Away (2001)02 :: ¥26.20 billion ($212.0 million) - Titanic (1997)03 :: ¥22.00 billion ($207.0 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)04 :: ¥20.30 billion ($163.7 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)05 :: ¥19.80 billion ($194.1 million) - Frozen (2014) *Est*06 :: ¥19.30 billion ($165.5 million) - Princess Mononoke (1997)07 :: ¥17.35 billion ($164.5 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)08 :: ¥17.30 billion ($147.8 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)09 :: ¥15.60 billion ($188.7 million) - Avatar (2009)10 :: ¥15.50 billion ($156.0 million) - Ponyo (2008)

[Quigley]

Last weekend, the estimate was ¥19M below the actual. This is exactly what the difference must be for this weekend as well, so that the drop is below 10%.

707 + 19 = 726.

726 / 807 = 0.9 = 90%

[Quigley]

One thing is for sure, though. Avengers OS and possibly $900M are going down.

[Omni]

It's theorically good, but it just doesn't look good. To me, at least.

No recovery on Sunday, meaning field day had very little to do with its first double-digit drop. Okay, it's still the best weekend hold by far and only an average 2% drop from 2 weeks ago, but all of that doesn't touch me. Guess there's no reason here, I just wanted 2 more weeks above 7M. Only actuals can help me.

 

Next week is going to be very important. This is how I see it:

7M+ > momentum perfectly kept, 300+ probable

6.5/7 > strong though less spectacular, 300+ still in play

6/6.5 > showing some fatigue, increasing fear of an upcoming fall

sub-6M > loss of momentum begun, sigh of relief for Potter

[Omni]

And of course

[eXtacy]

I loved Frozen, it was good but it definitely wasn't Princess Mononoke or Howl's Moving Castle good, cant believe this is heading for at least number two spot. Spirited Away is deserving of that spot I hope Frozen does not take it.