JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Fullbuster]

in Japan and America maybe, not where we are living

I jiust care about US and WW numbers, the rest isn't very important.

[Corpse]

Sept. 8-9

Weekend Forecast

1 (-) Bayside Shakedown THE FINAL (Toho) ¥700-800 million ($9-10 million) NEW

2 (1) Rurouni Kenshin (Warner.) ¥250 million ($3.2 million) Week 3

3 (2) The Avengers (Disney) ¥175 million ($2.2 million) Week 4

4 (4) Dearest (Toho) ¥165 million ($2.1 million) Week 3

5 (3) Prometheus (FOX) ¥150 million ($1.9 million) Week 3

6 (-) Safe House (Toho-Towa) ¥125 millon ($1.6 million) NEW

7 (6) The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki (Toho) ¥85 million ($1.1 million) Week 8

8 (5) Akko-chan: The Movie (Shochiku) ¥80 million ($1 million) Week 2

9 (-) Dreams for Sale (Asmik Ace) ¥75 million ($950,000) NEW

10 (7) Umizaru: Brave Hearts (Toho) ¥70 million ($900,000) Week 9

There are a lot of mixed signals coming in for 'Bayside Shakedown 4'. Friday sales seemed so-so, but with the film skewing older and aimed at businessmen in their 30's-50's, it's not surprising for a weekday. Morning shows on Saturday were also pretty average, though afternoon sales look stronger as the day progresses. And it's playing on the two biggest screens at most locations, too, which will prevent sell out reports. I don't know, it's tough to see where it may end up this weekend.

As for the holdovers, we can expect some hefty drops after last Saturday's discount day. Typically drops are between 40-50% for most films following discount weekends.

Projected Totals after Sunday:

'Umizaru 4' ~¥7.1 billion ($91 million); 5.6 million admissions after 59 days.

'Wolf Children' ~¥3.9 billion ($50 million); 3.2 million admissions after 51 days.

'Avengers' ~¥3.2 billion ($41 million); 2.1 million admissions after 27 days.

'Kenshin' ~¥1.9 billion ($24 million); 1.4 million admissions after 16 days.

'Prometheus' ~¥1.5 billion ($20 million); 1 million admissions after 17 days.

'Dearest' ~¥1.2 billion ($15 million); 1 million admissions after 16 days.

'Bayside Shakedown 4' ~¥1 billion ($13 million); 700,000 admissions after 3 days.

[druv10]

Thanks Corpse, TA will finally pass TASM and become the biggest SH movie of the year. You said, after next weekend it can determined if TA will hit 50M. What's the diagnosis now? 45+M looks locked but how much more?

Edited September 8, 2012 by druv10

[fmpro]

I hope for a better drop regarding TA..I want 2,5

[Corpse]

$45-50 million is the likely range for The Avengers. It all depends how it holds next weeked.

[Corpse]

Usual Locations

First Day (Saturday) Admission Comparisons

Film - Ticket Sold/Tickets Available - Opening Weekend (Admissions)

Alice in Wonderland - 37,578/57,632 - (828,000)

Bayside Shakedown 3 - 35,843/63,402 - (707,000)

Arrietty - 34,504/73,018 - (680,000)

Umizaru 4 - 33,188/64,331 - (686,000)

Toy Story 3 - 32,179/57,086 - (649,000)

Bayside Shakedown 4 - 33,407/75,230 - (???,???)

Opening in September with light competition gave Bayside Shakedown 4 a lot more showtimes than the other blockbusters above, and it seems to be on par with Umizaru 4 and just slightly behind Bayside Shakedown 3 on Saturday at the usual locations (10-15% of the market).

All of the films listed above, except for Bayside Shakedown 4 at the moment, opened over ¥850 million ($10 million) and grossed ¥7 billion ($85 million) or more.

I'm very surprised by this result because it didn't appear to be reaching the highest of those films yesterday.

Edited September 9, 2012 by Corpse

[fmpro]

$45-50 million is the likely range for The Avengers. It all depends how it holds next weeked.

An amazing result

[Olive]

If RE5 does not do well, Avengers will be the biggest HLW movie of 2012?

[Rudolf]

If RE5 does not do well, Avengers will be the biggest HLW movie of 2012?

is MI4 not considered a 2012 movie ?

[Olive]

Oh,forgot that..

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Yeah, that belongs to MI4.

[JCS]

$45-50 million is the likely range for The Avengers. It all depends how it holds next weeked.

Before the Japan release, everybody would have loved and taken this number!So good for a super-hero movie in Japan.

[Corpse]

Sept. 8-9

Weekend Estimates

1 (-) Bayside Shakedown THE FINAL (Toho) ¥770 million ($9.8 million), 0, NEW

2 (1) Rurouni Kenshin (Warner.) ¥202 million ($2.6 million), -50%, Week 3

3 (4) Dearest (Toho) ¥138 million ($1.8 million), -35%, Week 3

4 (2) The Avengers (Disney) ¥111 million ($1.4 million), -61%, Week 4

5 (-) Dreams for Sale (Asmik Ace) ¥102 million ($1.3 million), 0, NEW

6 (3) Prometheus (FOX) ¥68 million ($870,000), -71%, Week 3

7 (5) Akko-Chan: The Movie (Shochiku) ¥62 million ($790,000), -56%, Week 2

8 (6) The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki (Toho) ¥50 million ($640,000), -64%, Week 8

9 (8) The Intouchables (Gaga) ¥47 million ($600,000), -41%, Week 2

10 (7) Umizaru: Brave Hearts (Toho) ¥35 million ($450,000), -73%, Week 9

More or less the range expected for 'Bayside Shakedown 4' with the rare Friday opening, and it still gets the second best opening weekend of the year behind only 'Umizaru 4''s ¥878 million ($11 million). The 3-day total also isn't known yet, but should be very, very close to ¥1 billion ($12/13 million) or just over.

If the estimate holds, it's looking at ¥5-6 billion ($65-77 million) with next Monday being the only holiday in it's first 5 weeks in release. However, 'Umizaru 3' and 'Hero' managed multipliers over 8 in Sept., making ¥6.5 billion ($80 million+) a possibility for 'Bayside Shakedown 4'. It needs to gross over ¥5.9 billion ($76 million) to become the second biggest film of 2012.

The holdovers drop expectantly bad. Last weekend was inflated due to the first of the month (40% discount day), and most of them lost substantial showtimes at Toho locations to make room for 'Bayside Shakedown 4'. But because of the first of the month, I expect the holdovers to increase 5-10% from estimates to make up for last weekend's discount tickets.

[John Marston]

Those drops...*blech*

[fmpro]

Sept. 8-9

Weekend Estimates

1 (-) Bayside Shakedown THE FINAL (Toho) ¥770 million ($9.8 million), 0, NEW

2 (1) Rurouni Kenshin (Warner.) ¥202 million ($2.6 million), -50%, Week 3

3 (4) Dearest (Toho) ¥138 million ($1.8 million), -35%, Week 3

4 (2) The Avengers (Disney) ¥111 million ($1.4 million), -61%, Week 4

5 (-) Dreams for Sale (Asmik Ace) ¥102 million ($1.3 million), 0, NEW

6 (3) Prometheus (FOX) ¥68 million ($870,000), -71%, Week 3

7 (5) Akko-Chan: The Movie (Shochiku) ¥62 million ($790,000), -56%, Week 2

8 (6) The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki (Toho) ¥50 million ($640,000), -64%, Week 8

9 (8) The Intouchables (Gaga) ¥47 million ($600,000), -41%, Week 2

10 (7) Umizaru: Brave Hearts (Toho) ¥35 million ($450,000), -73%, Week 9

More or less the range expected for 'Bayside Shakedown 4' with the rare Friday opening, and it still gets the second best opening weekend of the year behind only 'Umizaru 4''s ¥878 million ($11 million). The 3-day total also isn't known yet, but should be very, very close to ¥1 billion ($12/13 million) or just over.

If the estimate holds, it's looking at ¥5-6 billion ($65-77 million) with next Monday being the only holiday in it's first 5 weeks in release. However, 'Umizaru 3' and 'Hero' managed multipliers over 8 in Sept., making ¥6.5 billion ($80 million+) a possibility for 'Bayside Shakedown 4'. It needs to gross over ¥5.9 billion ($76 million) to become the second biggest film of 2012.

The holdovers drop expectantly bad. Last weekend was inflated due to the first of the month (40% discount day), and most of them lost substantial showtimes at Toho locations to make room for 'Bayside Shakedown 4'. But because of the first of the month, I expect the holdovers to increase 5-10% from estimates to make up for last weekend's discount tickets.

Ouchhhh for TA

[Olive]

The Avengers weekend actuals: 140.65M yen,local total is 3.153 billion yen .

[Corpse]

Sept. 08-09

Major Cinema Chain Weekend Rankings

Toho (513scr), Warner (496scr), United (202scr), Sunshine (165scr), Shikoku (116scr) :: Film :: Dis. :: Avg. Wkd Rank :: Week In Release

1, 1, 1, 1, 1 :: Bayside Shakedown THE FINAL :: Toho :: 1 :: Week 1

2, 2, 2, 2, 2 :: Rurouni Kenshin :: Warner Bros. :: 2 :: Week 3

5, 3, 3, 3, 3 :: Dearest :: Toho :: 3 :: Week 3

4, 4, -, 4, 5 :: The Avengers :: Disney :: 4 :: Week 4

6, 5, -, -, 7 :: Safe House :: Toho-Towa :: 5 :: Week 1

7, -, -, 5, 9 :: Promethues :: FOX :: 6 :: Week 3

9, -, -, -, 6 :: Dreams for Sale :: Asmik Ace :: 7 :: Week 1

8, -, -, -, 4 :: Akko-chan: The Movie :: Shochiku :: 8 :: Week 2

3, -, -, -, -, :: The Intouchables :: Gaga :: 9 :: Week 2

10, -, -, -, 10 :: The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki :: Toho :: 10 :: Week 8

-, -, -, -, 8 :: Kobito Dukan 2 :: Asmik Ace :: 11 :: Week 3

Notes:

Toho and Shikoku report their Top 10.

Warner and Sunshine report their Top 5.

United report their Top 3.

The five chains operate 45% of all screens in the country.

Edited September 10, 2012 by Corpse

[Corpse]

'Bayside Shakedown THE FINAL' 3-day admission total is an estimated 795,000 via FujiTV.

Whatever it grossed depends on how many seniors turned out opening weekend. It's primary audience demo was 25-40 in the late 90's, so many of the fans would be hitting 50 or older now. (50 years and older get senior discount tickets). The minimum avg. ticket price should be ¥1,200 resulting in about ¥950 million ($12.1 million) and would mean 60-70% or more of the audience were 50 or older, while the maximum avg. ticket price is probably ¥1,350 giving it ¥1.07 billion ($13.6 million) over 3-days.

Top 5 (3-Day) Opening Weekends (Admissions) of 2012 so far:

1. 'Umizaru: Brave Hearts' - 874,000

2. 'Bayside Shakedown THE FINAL' - 795,000 (estimate)

3. 'Pokemon 15' - 724,000

4. 'Mission: Impossible IV' - 563,000

5. 'Men in Black 3' - 463,000

[fmpro]

The Avengers weekend actuals: 140.65M yen,local total is 3.153 billion yen .

Much better for TA

[lab276]

Eh, I was expecting a bit more for Bayside Shakedown.