JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[MinaTakla]

My estimates were 100k under each of the the big three yesterday, undershooting the bow now

Lets see if I cant get this to be goldie locks today

 

Must be a holiday today. Numbers are bigger than discount wed and sunday for JW and Minions. Tommy a little behind Sunday.

From last Thursday at 1400. JW up 235%, minions 189%, Monster 266%, Hero 202%, IO 143%

 

Thursday early est

JW $3.6m/ 23.9m Total, continues to pull further ahead of MI5 which is holding well. Will be over 32m on Sunday

MI5 $2.3m/ 13.2m. will clear 20m by Tuesday

Min $1.9m/ 20.5m. Will be close to 25m on sunday. holding well, going back to my original prediction, $40m

Wow - JW and Minions did way more than I expected

Lawrence - how much do you think JW will end up in? I am going conservative for Minions still and saying 30m until I see its drops after Obon. If it drops 50% afterwards, it will end up at around 31-33m and more. If it drops less then 40m is in play and if it drops more than 55%-60% then 30m is more realistic

[POTUS 2020]

Wow - JW and Minions did way more than I expected

Lawrence - how much do you think JW will end up in? I am going conservative for Minions still and saying 30m until I see its drops after Obon. If it drops 50% afterwards, it will end up at around 31-33m and more. If it drops less then 40m is in play and if it drops more than 55%-60% then 30m is more realistic

I doubt Minions drops 50%, its performing really well.

 

JW is also continues to show relative strength It will be near 5x OW this sunday. I see 10x no problem. $68m probable with 60m Locked, and 1B OS locked

 

MI5 not holding as strong, I want to see if it can hold 90% this weekend or go the way of TF4, dropping 27% 2nd weekend of OBon, then getting wacked afterward

[Bishop54]

I doubt Minions drops 50%, its performing really well.

 

JW is also continues to show relative strength It will be near 5x OW this sunday. I see 10x no problem. $68m probable with 60m Locked, and 1B OS locked

 

MI5 not holding as strong, I want to see if it can hold 90% this weekend or go the way of TF4, dropping 27% 2nd weekend of OBon, then getting wacked afterward

$1B overseas being locked for Jurassic World is music to my ears.

[POTUS 2020]

So how long does Obon last?

The BO booms for 9 days.  The 8th to the 16th this year

[POTUS 2020]

my estimates from yesterday to be way off. I noticed Aeon was put back in. They are probably more like Tuesday numbers

[KATCH-2D2]

my estimates from yesterday to be way off. I noticed Aeon was put back in. They are probably more like Tuesday numbers

That's ok.. I thought your earlier thur estimates were too good to be true anyway.

[Rthmessiah]

Thu

JP4 lc421m 2.964b

MI5 lc250m/1.593b

Min 213m/2.515b

[kowan]

my estimates from yesterday to be way off. I noticed Aeon was put back in. They are probably more like Tuesday numbers

According to Rth, it's not that far off. 3.38m and you estimated 3.6m. You are talking about Thursday numbers right? lol

[lab276]

Huge day!

 

Thursday Estimates (08/13)
Daily Gross ¥ ($), % change versus last week, Estimated Total, Film (Day of Release)

¥419 million ($3.4 million), +112%, ¥2,900,000,000 ($23.5 million), Jurassic World (Day 9)
¥243 million ($2.0 million), 0, ¥1,545,000,000 ($12.5 million), Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation (Day 7)
¥195 million ($1.6 million), +92%, ¥2,460,000,000 ($19.9 million), Minions (Day 14)
¥116 million ($930,000), +113%, ¥4,290,000,000 ($34.6 million), The Boy and the Beast (Day 34)
¥113 million ($910,000), 0, ¥1,140,000,000 ($9.2 million), Boruto: Naruto the Movie (Day 7)
¥109 million ($875,000), +64%, ¥1,780,000,000 ($14.4 million), Attack on Titan - Part 1 (Day 13)
¥93 million ($750,000), +69%, ¥2,900,000,000 ($23.6 million), Inside Out (Day 27)
¥84 million ($675,000), +119%, ¥3,495,000,000 ($28.4 million), Hero 2 (Day 27)
¥53 million ($425,000), 0, ¥395,000,000 ($3.2 million), Kamen Rider Drive The Movie: Surprise Drive (Day 6)
¥49 million ($395,000), 0, ¥325,000,000 ($2.6 million), Japan's Longest Day (Day 6)
¥45 million ($360,000), +70%, ¥1,800,000,000 ($14.6 million), Pokemon XY: Hoopa and the Clash of Ages (Day 27)
¥20 million ($160,000), +63%, ¥3,030,000,000 ($24.6 million), Avengers: Age of Ultron (Day 41)

Notes after Thursday's Estimates:

First off - huge day, and today (Friday) should be even bigger. 

-Jurassic World registered either its second or third biggest day since it opened by pulling off an incredible 100%+ increase over last Thursday. It's going to crush the ¥3 billion milestone in only 10 days, and might even reach ¥4 billion after 12 days.
-The Boy and the Beast looks to have risen above Boruto in daily gross, and with a total near ¥4.3 billion, it's officially become Mamoru Hosoda's highest-grossing film, outgrossing the 4.22 billion total of his previous film, Wolf Children.

[lab276]

Top 10 box office according to Corpse:

Mon 1076m

Tue 987m

Wed 1425m

Thu 1474m

4962m + 3379m (weekend)

Over 8.3b made this week, with Friday to go.

[KATCH-2D2]

Thu

JP4 lc421m 2.964b

MI5 lc250m/1.593b

Min 213m/2.515b

Wow.. these numbers are great...  I'm so happy with JW numbers in Japan so far.

 

I'm so surprised with Minions performance.. I though it'd be Inside Out who're making this kind of number.

[POTUS 2020]

According to Rth, it's not that far off. 3.38m and you estimated 3.6m. You are talking about Thursday numbers right? lol

Mimorim was a bit off yesterday. They threw in Aeon chain for one day. but I noticed the day totals are more than the 5 chains added up but short when Aeon added in. The totals were 10% more than the 5 chains sum, which was about what I was over. Like there aren't enough variable already to calculate this shit.  Yikes.

Anyway it turned out to be a nice bump over the Tuesday.

 

Today Aeon is nowhere to be seen, the numbers look right and are bigger than yesterday and sunday at 1400

 

JW +3% over sunday

MI5 -5% under sunday

Min +18% over sunday

They are close to 10% over yesterday

 

I say yesterdays estimates are good for today

JW $3.6M/  27.5M Total, looking for it to hold 100%+, 7m+,  this weekend as WOM is apparently building

MI5  2.3M/  15.1M should hold 90% this weekend. doing well, just pales in comparison to JW. Has a shot at matching MI4 admissions

Min  2.0M/  22.3M looks like it'll hold 100% as well. break away toon this summer.

 

Who says Japan doesnt like HLWD sequels? All three doing well

Last years second Obon weekend August 16-17 2014, No new releases this year. Better chance of 100% holds

 

1	1	Stand by Me Doraemon	Toho	$6,854,429	-8.8%	319	-	$21,487	$31,982,148	2
2	N	Hotto rôdo (Hot Road)	Shochiku	$3,802,676	-	302	-	$12,592	$3,802,676	1
3	3	Rurôni Kenshin: Kyôto Taika-hen	WB	$3,528,587	-18.2%	438	-	$8,056	$31,210,644	3
4	2	Transformers: Age of Extinction	PPI	$3,434,779	-27.8%	761	+1	$4,514	$17,927,128	2
5	4	Maleficent	Disney	$1,716,599	-5.7%	617	-10	$2,782	$57,631,496	7
6	5	Godzilla (2014)	Toho	$1,705,474	-5.3%	427	-	$3,994	$25,634,942	4

[POTUS 2020]

1900 admissions w/o/w, JW and Minions outperforming there respective competition

 

JW +266%

MI5 +213

 

Min +238

IO +200

Naruto +59

 

At 1900, Minions, Monster and Hero already have Sunday totals beat and should exceed sunday by 10-20%

JW should have its biggest day of the run. On pace to beat sunday by 3-5%, Mite even get close to $4m for the day

MI5 close to flat to sunday. 2.5m~

Some locals like Kamen and Naruto are down 40-50% from Sunday, the top 12 in total may not beat sunday

 

Tomorrow should be even bigger than today(10-20% for some movies) then sunday dropping 10-20%

Edited August 15, 2015 by M F Lawrence

[POTUS 2020]

Top 12	T1MUK LW 1200	T1MUK LW 2200	T1MUK Today 12	T1MUK Est2200	T1MUK xM	Total Adms	Ave Tix Price	Sat Tot M	Sat $ Tot M	Sun Proj	Sun $Proj	Week end	Week end $
JW	27191	124273	37400	170000	2.15	365500	1550	567	4.57	499	4.02	1065	8.59
MI5	22098	98549	25300	115000	2.15	247250	1375	340	2.74	299	2.41	639	5.15
Naruto	19249	70457	10400	40000	2.25	90000	1375	124	1.00	109	0.88	233	1.88
Kamen	17210	35625	10100	24000	2.25	54000	1250	68	0.54	59	0.48	127	1.02
Minion	14558	48892	21100	75000	2.55	191250	1275	244	1.97	195	1.57	439	3.54
Longest	7527	21153	8000	22000	2.25	49500	1250	62	0.50	54	0.44	116	0.94
IO	6418	22783	9400	33000	2.25	74250	1300	97	0.78	85	0.69	181	1.46
Titans	6300	35537	7400	39000	2.25	87750	1325	116	0.94	102	0.83	219	1.76
Monster	5700	27812	8700	40000	2.25	90000	1250	113	0.91	99	0.80	212	1.71
Hero	5600	24000	7900	32000	2.25	72000	1250	90	0.73	79	0.64	169	1.36
Pokemon	6264	13000	7500	15000	2.25	33750	1250	42	0.34	37	0.30	79	0.64
School	5981	12000	7000	14000	2.25	31500	1300	41	0.33	36	0.29	77	0.62
												3556	28.68

JW and MI5 will have their biggest day today.

[lab276]

From Corpse:

 

Friday Estimates (08/14)
Daily Gross ¥ ($), % change versus last week, Estimated Total, Film (Day of Release)

¥516 million ($4.2 million), +134%, ¥3,420,000,000 ($27.7 million), Jurassic World (Day 10)
¥331 million ($2.7 million), +81%, ¥1,875,000,000 ($15.2 million), Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation (Day 8)
¥203 million ($1.6 million), +125%, ¥2,665,000,000 ($21.5 million), Minions (Day 15)
¥133 million ($1.1 million), +112%, ¥1,910,000,000 ($15.5 million), Attack on Titan - Part 1 (Day 14)
¥130 million ($1.1 million), -47%, ¥1,270,000,000 ($10.3 million), Boruto: Naruto the Movie (Day 8)
¥128 million ($1.0 million), +133%, ¥4,420,000,000 ($35.7 million), The Boy and the Beast (Day 35)
¥107 million ($860,000), +182%, ¥3,600,000,000 ($29.3 million), Hero 2 (Day 28)
¥100 million ($805,000), +102%, ¥3,000,000,000 ($24.4 million), Inside Out (Day 28)
¥58 million ($465,000), 0, ¥385,000,000 ($3.1 million), Japan's Longest Day (Day 7)
¥49 million ($395,000), 0, ¥445,000,000 ($3.6 million), Kamen Rider Drive The Movie: Surprise Drive (Day 7)
¥46 million ($370,000), +98%, ¥1,850,000,000 ($15.0 million), Pokemon XY: Hoopa and the Clash of Ages (Day 28)
¥27 million ($220,000), +181%, ¥3,055,000,000 ($24.8 million), Avengers: Age of Ultron (Day 42)

Notes after Friday's Estimates:

Friday was the biggest day of Obon Festival this year, in both admissions and gross. The Top 10 yesterday was bigger than most weekends due to how many major films are in release.

-Jurassic World delivered its biggest day in release yet, and is quite close to ¥3.5 billion after just 10 days in release. It's Obon, but it's still incredibly impressive. It'll exceed the ¥4 billion milestone after Sunday.

-Boruto is only down because it opened last Friday, and Naruto is a naturally frontloaded franchise. 

-Inside Out is right around the ¥3 billion milestone, and may have exceeded the mark on Friday. There are several bigger films in release, so its performance is being overshadowed, but it's still doing quite well. It's multiplier is likely to exceed 10, afterall.

Edited August 15, 2015 by lab276

[lab276]

Top 10 box office according to Corpse:

Mon 1076m

Tue 987m

Wed 1425m

Thu 1474m

4962m + 3379m (weekend)

Over 8.3b made this week, with Friday to go.

Fri 1755m

For a total week of 10b. Just insane.

[lab276]

Also from Corpse:
 

Weekend Forecast (08/15-16)

01 (01) ¥768,000,000 ($6.2 million), -09%, ¥4,190,000,000 ($34.0 million), Jurassic World (Toho-Towa) Week 2
02 (02) ¥498,000,000 ($4.0 million), -13%, ¥2,375,000,000 ($19.3 million), Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation (Paramount) Week 2
03 (04) ¥406,000,000 ($3.3 million), +11%, ¥3,070,000,000 ($24.8 million), Minions (Toho-Towa) Week 3
04 (07) ¥227,000,000 ($1.8 million), +14%, ¥4,650,000,000 ($37.5 million), The Boy and the Beast (Toho) Week 6
05 (03) ¥224,000,000 ($1.8 million), -46%, ¥1,495,000,000 ($12.1 million), Boruto: Naruto the Movie (Toho) Week 2
06 (05) ¥217,000,000 ($1.7 million), -20%, ¥2,125,000,000 ($17.2 million), Attack on Titan - Part 1 (Toho) Week 3
07 (08) ¥196,000,000 ($1.6 million), +02%, ¥3,800,000,000 ($31.0 million), Hero 2 (Toho) Week 5
08 (09) ¥178,000,000 ($1.4 million), +10%, ¥3,180,000,000 ($25.8 million), Inside Out (Disney) Week 5
09 (10) ¥167,000,000 ($1.3 million), +15%, ¥550,000,000 ($4.5 million), Japan's Longest Day (Shochiku) Week 2
10 (06) ¥109,000,000 ($875,000), -49%, ¥555,000,000 ($4.5 million), Kamen Rider Drive The Movie: Surprise Drive (Toei) Week 2

Last Weekend's Top 10 was the 4th Biggest Weekend of All-Time, and the same films are looking to make a play at the Top 10 Biggest Weekends of All-Time once again this week.

If this weekend does indeed crack the Top 10, it'll be the fourth weekend in the past 9 months to make the Top 10. Three weekends making the Top 10 list in the last 9 months is impressive enough, but four would be an incredible accomplishment.

Jurassic World will see a minimal second weekend drop, likely under 10%. I would project a potential increase, but it opened so high that I think only a drop can happen. Now, if Saturday/Sunday had been either the 13th/14th, generally the biggest days of Obon Festival, a second weekend increase would have been very likely.

All the films that are attracting families/children (Minions, Inside Out), teens/students (The Boy and the Beast), or businessmen/seniors (Hero 2, Japan's Longest Day) should experience weekend increase or very minuscule drops. 

This is only one of three times every year that all schools and many businesses are closed at the same time. 

Boruto will still see a sharp drop, since it's a frontloaded franchise in its second week, and Kamen Rider always drops around 50% in its second weekend, no matter there being a major holiday going on or not.

[kowan]

 

Also from Corpse:

 

Weekend Forecast (08/15-16)

01 (01) ¥768,000,000 ($6.2 million), -09%, ¥4,190,000,000 ($34.0 million), Jurassic World (Toho-Towa) Week 2

02 (02) ¥498,000,000 ($4.0 million), -13%, ¥2,375,000,000 ($19.3 million), Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation (Paramount) Week 2

03 (04) ¥406,000,000 ($3.3 million), +11%, ¥3,070,000,000 ($24.8 million), Minions (Toho-Towa) Week 3

04 (07) ¥227,000,000 ($1.8 million), +14%, ¥4,650,000,000 ($37.5 million), The Boy and the Beast (Toho) Week 6

05 (03) ¥224,000,000 ($1.8 million), -46%, ¥1,495,000,000 ($12.1 million), Boruto: Naruto the Movie (Toho) Week 2

06 (05) ¥217,000,000 ($1.7 million), -20%, ¥2,125,000,000 ($17.2 million), Attack on Titan - Part 1 (Toho) Week 3

07 (08) ¥196,000,000 ($1.6 million), +02%, ¥3,800,000,000 ($31.0 million), Hero 2 (Toho) Week 5

08 (09) ¥178,000,000 ($1.4 million), +10%, ¥3,180,000,000 ($25.8 million), Inside Out (Disney) Week 5

09 (10) ¥167,000,000 ($1.3 million), +15%, ¥550,000,000 ($4.5 million), Japan's Longest Day (Shochiku) Week 2

10 (06) ¥109,000,000 ($875,000), -49%, ¥555,000,000 ($4.5 million), Kamen Rider Drive The Movie: Surprise Drive (Toei) Week 2

Last Weekend's Top 10 was the 4th Biggest Weekend of All-Time, and the same films are looking to make a play at the Top 10 Biggest Weekends of All-Time once again this week.

If this weekend does indeed crack the Top 10, it'll be the fourth weekend in the past 9 months to make the Top 10. Three weekends making the Top 10 list in the last 9 months is impressive enough, but four would be an incredible accomplishment.

Jurassic World will see a minimal second weekend drop, likely under 10%. I would project a potential increase, but it opened so high that I think only a drop can happen. Now, if Saturday/Sunday had been either the 13th/14th, generally the biggest days of Obon Festival, a second weekend increase would have been very likely.

All the films that are attracting families/children (Minions, Inside Out), teens/students (The Boy and the Beast), or businessmen/seniors (Hero 2, Japan's Longest Day) should experience weekend increase or very minuscule drops. 

This is only one of three times every year that all schools and many businesses are closed at the same time. 

Boruto will still see a sharp drop, since it's a frontloaded franchise in its second week, and Kamen Rider always drops around 50% in its second weekend, no matter there being a major holiday going on or not.

 

Nah, I don't think JW will drop, it'll most likely get a higher 2nd weekend.

[POTUS 2020]

Looks like JW will bump with minions and MI5 will be close to flat. Saturday and Sunday are reversing BO total % this weekend. Today needs to beat last sunday, as tomorrow will drop, to beat last weekend. The % that today beats sunday should be close to the % it beats the weekend
 
1400  5 chain total % change 
 From  Last    Last   Weekend
        Sat    Sun      Est
JW     +37%    +01%   7.5-8m  JW and MI5 will perform better in the evening compared to last Sunday, Add at least 10%
MI5    +17     -10%      5M
Min    +47     +15%     3.4m
IO     +31     -05%     1.4m

Edited August 15, 2015 by M F Lawrence

[JCS]

Wow, JW doing very well!

 

Where is it heading in $?