JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[grim22]

Still cannot believe that Minions will outgross Inside Out handily in Japan. That has to be the most shocking OS performance for the movie.

[Olive]

DM2 made 2.5b yen in Japan, and it increased a lot in many markets like +100%!

Japan just followed the trend.

[POTUS 2020]

Lawrence, what's your assessment of MI5 and Minions' holds on this Monday compared to their previous week before Obon? Are their holds good?

Minions along with monster held several percent or more than the rest of the family movies. Good sign for wom and legs

MI5 opened Friday before obon no data to compare prior week. It held well Monday to Monday. Better than most of the field but not as good as minions and JW.

 

I say minions has the 10 multiple in sight at 44m for a base

Last year TF4 fell 25% second weekend and faded pretty fast and still pulled in 6x. MI5 should have at least 8x at 40m with these holds

[lab276]

[The Dark Alfred]

Beating Fast 7 and AoU handily, finishing only behind JW as the second highest grossing live action film of the year - pretty decent performance by MI5.

[catlover]

DM2 made 2.5b yen in Japan, and it increased a lot in many markets like +100%!

Japan just followed the trend.

 

But that's the point. Japan almost never follows the trend. Especially for animated films. That's why these results are surprising.

[PierreHP]

[POTUS 2020]

	Weekend	M	T	W	Th	F	S	Su	Total	Proj Tot
JW	7.6	1.75	1.34						38.19	75
MI5	5.2	1.02	0.73						21.75	41
Minions	3.4	1.01	0.74						26.75	44
IO	1.5	0.43	0.34						26.57	32

[KATCH-2D2]

^^Minions is already above MI5 daily number? WTH? Is Tuesday a discounted day for kids movies or something?

[Ezen Baklattan]

Very good for JW in Japan. It may get to $1b OS after all.

 

Minions may be more baffling in its success, but hey, throw Shay a bone I guess.

[POTUS 2020]

^^Minions is already above MI5 daily number? WTH? Is Tuesday a discounted day for kids movies or something?

KIds are out of school, hence the large weekdays for minions. MI5 has teens going to it during the week but its skewing towards working adults as well and will play better on the weekends. Last week adults had off hence the larger numbers.

Today is ladies discount day. Minions and IO will see the biggest bump as moms will take the kiddies. JW has a balanced demo and will see a good bump today. MI5 skewing more to the males will see the smallest

Edited August 19, 2015 by M F Lawrence

[KATCH-2D2]

KIds are out of school, hence the large weekdays for minions. MI5 has teens going to it during the week but its skewing towards working adults as well and will play better on the weekends. Last week adults had off hence the larger numbers.

Thanks. I was a little worried since Minions has been out for a while but it's numbers were getting closer and closer to MI5. It looks like Minions is the first choice for the kids in Japan as well, and I though Japan was the market that didn't follow global trend...

Do you know if JW and MI5 have good reviews/wom in Japan?

[POTUS 2020]

Thanks. I was a little worried since Minions has been out for a while but it's numbers were getting closer and closer to MI5. It looks like Minions is the first choice for the kids in Japan as well, and I though Japan was the market that didn't follow global trend...

Do you know if JW and MI5 have good reviews/wom in Japan?

Japan doesnt always follow the WW trend but it does pay attention to how well its received elsewhere and quickly rejects the bad ones. The good ones can get a decent opening but wom is then in control as their OW's are small and it all up to the legs based on wom.

I don't know about reviews but I can see the wom in the numbers, easier to do in a leggy market like japan.

 

Minions has great wom as its dailies are declining slower than IO and the local toons.

1st Obon weekend- 3m, 9 day Obon Total- 14m = 4.6x 1st Obon weekend  IO had  3.6x.

Last year Doraemon had 3.8x and finished at 10x OW at $75m. It did 6.5x more following its second obon weekend. Minions could best that. Perhaps 7-8x, bringing it close to $50m

 

JW keeps expanding its daily lead over MI5. tremendous wom there and could be the biggest movie of the year

6.8m, 29m total= 4.26x. OW was as big as Doraemon but a better Obon hold. Add 8x second obon weekend to current total and you get into the 90ms. Lets see how this weekend holds. should do 12x OW at this rate regardless, 80m

 

MI5 must be decent wom, its holding much better than TF4 last year and T5 and AOU this year

4.8m, 18.2 total= 3.79x  TF4 had 3.4x for OBon and finished w 5x OW, Could do 10x OW like doraemon, but not playing as well midweek and 8-9x more likely. 40-45m

 

Confused by all this? This how my mind works, cant help it, nutty aint it?

[KATCH-2D2]

^^Thanks so much. I love your analysis, very insightful. I hope JW can go as high as your projection or close to it, I love this movie.

MI5 is such a great movie as well so I'm glad it's doing well too.

[POTUS 2020]

	Wknd (m)	M (m)	T	W	Th	F	S	Su	Total	Proj Tot
JW	7.6	1.75	1.34	1.64					39.83	75
MI5	5.2	1.02	0.73	0.96					22.71	41
Minions	3.4	1.01	0.74	1.13					27.88	44
IO	1.5	0.43	0.34	0.56					27.13	32

 

Minions and IO get the bigger ladies day pop over Tuesday.

IO was 9th last Saturday at the beginning of Obon, was 5th yesterday and 4th today. Very strong relative to the market. Minions has maintained it 100% margin above IO's dailies, a great display of strength as well

[pepsa]

Don't get how IO has such bad WoM in japan but well...

[catlover]

Don't get how IO has such bad WoM in japan but well...

 

You're joking, right? IO is holding really well. It's getting like 10x multipliers. It's the opposite of bad WOM.

Edited August 20, 2015 by catlover

[Mojoguy]

Japan doing what they do best, confusing the fuck out of all with their boxoffice trends.

[POTUS 2020]

Thursday Estimates

		Est	Est	Est	Est	Proj	Proj	Proj	Proj
	Wknd (m)	M (m)	T	W	Th	F	S	Su	Wknd	%Chg	Total	Proj Tot
JW	7.6	1.75	1.36	1.64	1.15	1.26	2.40	2.65	5.05	-33.6%	47.3	72.5
MI5	5.2	1.02	0.78	0.96	0.64	0.72	1.48	1.60	3.08	-40.8%	27.2	40.0
Minions	3.4	1.01	0.77	1.13	0.78	0.72	1.08	1.28	2.36	-30.6%	31.8	43.5
IO	1.5	0.43	0.34	0.56	0.34	0.31	0.46	0.56	1.02	-32.0%	28.8	34.0

 

I used a 1400 multiplier from mon-tues for todays estimate. Projected out the rest of the week based on past performance.

-30% has been the best hold(nothing has held -20%) for top movies after Obon that wind up with at least 10x OW

-40% is good and has lead to 8-9x OW

-50% is not good like TF4 last year and leads to 5-6x OW

Adjusted Projected Final Base Totals accordingly.

 

[MinaTakla]

Thursday Estimates

    Est Est Est Est Proj Proj Proj Proj         Wknd (m) M (m) T W Th F S Su Wknd %Chg Total Proj Tot JW 7.6 1.75 1.36 1.64 1.15 1.26 2.40 2.65 5.05 -33.6% 47.3 72.5 MI5 5.2 1.02 0.78 0.96 0.64 0.72 1.48 1.60 3.08 -40.8% 27.2 40.0 Minions 3.4 1.01 0.77 1.13 0.78 0.72 1.08 1.28 2.36 -30.6% 31.8 43.5 IO 1.5 0.43 0.34 0.56 0.34 0.31 0.46 0.56 1.02 -32.0% 28.8 34.0

 

I used a 1400 multiplier from mon-tues for todays estimate. Projected out the rest of the week based on past performance.

-30% has been the best hold(nothing has held -20%) for top movies after Obon that wind up with at least 10x OW

-40% is good and has lead to 8-9x OW

-50% is not good like TF4 last year and leads to 5-6x OW

Adjusted Projected Final Base Totals accordingly.

Great projections and very detailed analysis. Love your new table format! Thanks Lawrence!