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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

By Corpse, in International Box Office

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Foul01 Straight-to-DVD

Foul01

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Melvin Frohike said:

 

I wouldn't say "even Big Hero 6" because that movie was a huge, extremely leggy hit in Japan, grossing over ¥9B, while Zootopia still has to show us what it can do (and has gotten off to a slower start in this market so far).  Out of all of WDAS' (Disney Animation's) animated features, only Frozen has grossed more, and out of Pixar's only three have grossed more (in yen).  The latter group does not include Inside Out, which grossed well under half of what Big Hero 6 grossed in Japan despite easily grossing more domestically and worldwide.  At this point, we can only hope that Zootopia is able to match that performance, much less expect it to.

 

 

 

Absolutely possible, but still looks to be close, either way, unless Zootopia really breaks out (still looking for signs of that).


that is true, Big Hero 6 actually has a pretty good run in Japan. I guess my judgment was clouded by Frozen's number ($230M+) and my personal disappointment with Big Hero 6 (i think the movie is a little formulaic and overrated)

nonetheless, i still fancy Zootopia's chances of hitting the 1 Billion mark because of the reasons below:

1.) my estimation of OS-Japan Gross was a little pessimistic, a more realistic estimation should be $10~$12M considering there was $8M just last week.
Zootopia should earn at least around $25M more in domestic gross.
$1000M (target) - $916M (current WW) - $25M (estimate domestic to come) - $10M (estimate OS-Japan to come) + $4M (current Japan gross) = $53M (target Japan box office)
2.) this number should be likely considering:
     I.) Zootopia tickets sales performance is very close to number 1 at the moment with many theaters sold out (according to fellow members here)
     II.) Golden Week coming up. May 5 is Children's Day in Japan... very fitting to watch a movie about furry animals
     III.) the lead is female. this seems to help sales in Japan a lot.
     IV.) the film quality is just that good. my personal opinion (which seems to be shared with some critics) is that Zootopia is a much better film than Frozen or Big Hero 6. But i do understand it's hard to compete with Frozen's music and Big Hero 6's Japanese influence.

 

Edited by Foul01
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Cynosure Box Office Gold

Cynosure

Posted
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Corpse :

 

Golden Week: 2016 - Daily Estimates (04/29-05/05)

Friday (Showa Day)
¥290,000,000 ($2.7 million) / 190,000-200,000 admissions - Captain America: Civil War (Disney) Day 1
¥280,000,000 ($2.6 million) / 205,000-215,000 admissions - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) Day 14
¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 180,000-190,000 admissions - Zootopia (Disney) Day 7
¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) / 100,000-105,000 admissions - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) Day 1
¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million) / 90,000-95,000 admissions - Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) Day 14
¥80,000,000 ($750,000) / 60,000-65,000 admissions - Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) Day 1

Saturday
¥230,000,000 ($2.2 million) / 175,000-185,000 admissions - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) Day 15
¥215,000,000 ($2.0 million) / 160,000-170,000 admissions - Zootopia (Disney) Day 8
¥205,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 130,000-140,000 admissions - Captain America: Civil War (Disney) Day 2
¥95,000,000 ($890,000) / 75,000-80,000 admissions - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) Day 2
¥95,000,000 ($890,000) / 80,000-85,000 admissions - Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) Day 15
¥55,000,000 ($525,000) / 40,000-45,000 admissions - Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) Day 2
 

Edited by Cynosure
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cannastop Global Phenomenon

cannastop

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

Maybe the WOM wave gains momentum tomorrow as Conan burns off demand.  Important to build thru the week.

Wed is ladies day and a holiday. It should beat Conan handily. More fucking madness.

Is that sarcasm I detect? :P

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cannastop Global Phenomenon

cannastop

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Cynosure said:

I think Zootopia has a good chance at getting the#1 spot next weekend. Conan usually falls pretty hard after Golden Week and superhero movies are among the most frontloaded in the market.

Why not this weekend? It's not like Detective Conan has a huge lead right now.

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Jason Box Office Gold

Jason

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Foul01 said:


that is true, Big Hero 6 actually has a pretty good run in Japan. I guess my judgment was clouded by Frozen's number ($230M+) and my personal disappointment with Big Hero 6 (i think the movie is a little formulaic and overrated)

nonetheless, i still fancy Zootopia's chances of hitting the 1 Billion mark because of the reasons below:

1.) my estimation of OS-Japan Gross was a little pessimistic, a more realistic estimation should be $10~$12M considering there was $8M just last week.
Zootopia should earn at least around $25M more in domestic gross.

 

OS-Japan last week was $11.8M, $8M was just the weekend. I'm estimating remaining OS-Japan to be about $20M (including ~$5-6M this weekend), based on how well it's been holding the past couple weeks in remaining markets. (That could change, of course.) Domestic estimate might be a slightly optimistic. Showbuzzdaily has been projecting final domestic gross to be $340M, about $21M more. That's roughly the number you'd get if you assume Zootopia drops by 35% each week.

 

Those kind of balance each other out though, so I agree we're looking for about $50M from Japan, and that Zootopia's still got a good chance of $1B.

Edited by Jason
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edroger3 Box Office Gold

edroger3

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Quigley said:

Do you think Zootopia can reach $25M by next Sunday?

Weekdays pre-GW numbers was weak, especially on Wed and with a Sunday discounted as first of the month Zoo could lose some admissions (and $$$) in the following days. However to reach 25M it needs 15M in 8 days. Two Sunday and two holidays with 2,5M average and the other four with 1,2M average. Very hard but still possible.

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cannastop Global Phenomenon

cannastop

Posted
Posted

Seat Counts for May 2, 2016

*1　439547　1231　357.1　223　348　64.1%　名探偵コナン２０１６ 純黒の悪夢（ナイトメア）(Detective Conan 2016)
*2　306582　1204　254.6　226　346　65.3%　ズートピア (Zootopia)
*3　290635　1294　224.6　229　335　68.4%　シビル・ウォー キャプテン・アメリカ (Captain America 3)

 

Looks like Zootopia is claiming more territory. :)

 

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-11197.html

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