JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Foul01]

	Domestic	OS-Japan	Japan	World Wide
Current (May 1, 2016)	$      323,518,489	$    595,100,000	$      13,900,000	$         932,518,489
Estimate Final (high)	$      344,500,000	$    605,000,000	$      60,000,000	$      1,009,500,000
Estimate Final (low)	$      338,800,000	$    602,000,000	$      40,000,000	$         980,800,000

 

• Domestic: high estimation based on 25% weekly drop, low estimation based on 30% weekly drop
• OS-Japan: high estimation based on 40% weekly drop (as is the case for the last two weeks), low estimation based on 50% weekly drop
• Japan: complete gut feeling
• Special note: Box Office Mojo adjusted Foreign Gross from $607.9M to $609.0M today. My guess is this is because of the rise of Yen vs USD, so i am putting the increased $1.1M on Japan (from $12.8M to $13.9M).

 

Still cannot tell if Zootopia will hit 1 Billion on its own yet, this is so exciting.

Has any movie ever been this close and this unsure of hitting 1 Billion Worldwide?

Edited May 2, 2016 by Foul01

[MrFanaticGuy34]

31 minutes ago, Foul01 said:

	Domestic	OS-Japan	Japan	World Wide
Current (May 1, 2016)	$      323,518,489	$    595,100,000	$      13,900,000	$         932,518,489
Estimate Final (high)	$      344,500,000	$    605,000,000	$      60,000,000	$      1,009,500,000
Estimate Final (low)	$      338,800,000	$    602,000,000	$      40,000,000	$         980,800,000

 

• Domestic: high estimation based on 25% weekly drop, low estimation based on 30% weekly drop
• OS-Japan: high estimation based on 40% weekly drop (as is the case for the last two weeks), low estimation based on 50% weekly drop
• Japan: complete gut feeling
• Special note: Box Office Mojo adjusted Foreign Gross from $607.9M to $609.0M today. My guess is this is because of the rise of Yen vs USD, so i am putting the increased $1.1M on Japan (from $12.8M to $13.9M).

 

Still cannot tell if Zootopia will hit 1 Billion on its own yet, this is so exciting.

Has any movie ever been this close and this unsure of hitting 1 Billion Worldwide?

 

Um.....The Lion King, perhaps. With $987M WW that film had. That's the closest to $1B WW, but just under it.

[Foul01]

7 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

 

Um.....The Lion King, perhaps. With $987M WW that film had. That's the closest to $1B WW, but just under it.

 

Lion King was a re-release.

Much harder to push for extra sales.

 

My hope is that if Zootopia can reach $985M, the studio will somehow find a way to push it through $1 Billion even if it means buying $15M worth of tickets themselves.

But then again, no film in its original run has ever been between $975M to $1.00B, so maybe that is what they have been doing already.
(just did some research, that is exactly what they did for The Dark Knight when its original gross ended at $997M)

[LMAbacus]

1 hour ago, Foul01 said:

OS-Japan: high estimation based on 40% weekly drop (as is the case for the last two weeks), low estimation based on 50% weekly drop

 

Even the low estimated weekly drop is way too high. Zootopia lost a ton of theaters to Civil War this weekend (a whopping 66% in Australia, for instance) and it'll get more and more phased out. However, if you take Turkey into account ($1 million low and $3 million high by my estimate), I think it comes out the same.

[Cynosure]

Wednesday May 4 - Seats :

 

Conan 409,163 (-2.5%)

Zootopia 316,317 (+2.5%)

Civil War 281,583 (-2%)

[cannastop]

Seat counts for May 04.

*1　409163　1196　342.1　221　348　63.5%　名探偵コナン２０１６ 純黒の悪夢（ナイトメア） (Detective Conan 2016)
*2　316317　1151　274.8　220　347　63.4%　ズートピア (Zootopia)
*3　281583　1240　227.1　227　336　67.6%　シビル・ウォー キャプテン・アメリカ (Captain America 3)

 

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-11230.html

 

Another expansion for Zootopia.

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

(C)2016 青山剛昌／名探偵コナン製作委員会

Weekend Actuals (04/30-05/01)/2016年04月30日-2016年05月01日
01 (01) ¥562,252,800 ($5.3 million), -17%, ¥3,698,369,400 ($33.9 million), Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK3
02 (02) ¥509,699,700 ($4.8 million), +14%, ¥1,438,299,400 ($13.3 million), Zootopia (Disney) WK2
03 (---) ¥448,809,900 ($4.2 million), 0, ¥747,083,100 ($7.0 million), Captain America: Civil War (Disney) NEW
04 (03) ¥229,574,200 ($2.2 million), -03%, ¥1,123,938,000 ($10.3 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) WK3
05 (---) ¥216,326,200 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥334,722,200 ($3.1 million), Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) NEW
06 (04) ¥169,287,800 ($1.6 million), -25%, ¥655,866,400 ($6.0 million), I Am a Hero (Toho) WK2
07 (---) ¥150,636,500 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥227,446,500 ($2.2 million), Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) NEW
08 (05) ¥112,430,100 ($1.1 million), -37%, ¥581,089,600 ($5.4 million), The Revenant (Fox) WK2
09 (06) ¥67,285,400 ($633,000), -49%, ¥283,954,400 ($2.7 million), Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimensions (Toei) WK2
10 (07) ¥46,797,100 ($441,000), -38%, ¥3,332,502,000 ($30.1 million), Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) WK6

>Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare once again retains its position atop the box office, delivering yet another excellent weekend gross in its third week of release. The 20th anniversary release sold a great 490,261 admissions over the weekend frame (down just 6%), bringing its three week admissions above 2.9 million.

The breakout entry in the popular series is well on its way to becoming the highest grossing film in the franchise, and should be able make that claim sometime later this week. It's still on track to earn as much as ¥6 billion ($55 million) or more when all is said and done.

>Zootopia remains in second place, fending off a new Disney release, and was actually the only film to manage a weekend increase. Disney's latest hit film sold 443,249 admissions in its second week of release, up a very impressive 35% over its opening weekend admissions. A second weekend increase was likely, but that percentage is very, very strong.

It'll remain difficult to project where this one may finish its run because it could see a severe decline once Golden Week is over, since it's skewing toward a young audience, but it should at the very least be able to exceed ¥4 billion ($35 million) and could certainly still make a run at the ¥5 billion ($45 million) blockbuster milestone.

>Captain America: Civil War debuts in third place, meaning Japan was the only market that has opened so far where it didn't open at #1. Although, a first place debut was very unlikely, so that news isn't as bad as it seems since its numbers are quite impressive.

The latest entry in the MCU sold a solid 322,943 admissions over the weekend frame across 625 screens. Since opening on Friday, its three day admissions reached 515,131. This opening makes it the seventh biggest opening for a superhero film in the market, trailing only the original Spider-Man trilogy, The Amazing Spider-Man, and the two Avenger films. The opening is also a whopping 226% above that of Captain America: The Winter Soldier.

Overall, while it didn't come in first place, this is a strong start, and if it can match the legs of The Amazing Spider-Man 2 or Iron Man 3 (both previous Golden Week openers that it opened slightly higher than), then a total above ¥2.5 billion is assured with the chance of exceeding ¥3 billion ($25 million) as well.

>Chihayafuru - Part 2 accomplished a rare feat this weekend - opening above the first part of the film! It's very rare for the second half of a film in Japan to open higher than its predecessor that's release 2 months apart, but it did just that by selling 193,226 admissions on 294 screens over the weekend, up 32% compared to the first film.

>Terra Formars was the only disappointment of the weekend. Takashi Miike's live-action adaptation of the popular manga/anime series only sold 128,730 admissions over the weekend frame on 327 screens. Given everything the film had in its favor, despite a mixed reception, it should have managed an opening a lot better than this. As it stands, it'll be in for a struggle to reach the ¥1 billion milestone.

[cannastop]

Once again, Zootopia surprises the experts.

[Quigley]

 

3 hours ago, Foul01 said:

Special note: Box Office Mojo adjusted Foreign Gross from $607.9M to $609.0M today. My guess is this is because of the rise of Yen vs USD, so i am putting the increased $1.1M on Japan (from $12.8M to $13.9M).

 

 

Um, that's not how studio-reported grosses work. They never readjust the entire overseas gross of a film because of the current exchange rate (despite what BOM may do for individual country grosses). The change from 607.9 to 609 is purely because the OS weekend was underestimated. The actual is $9.3M instead of $8.3M and that is because many countries were underestimated, not just Japan.

[LMAbacus]

1 hour ago, Cynosure said:

>Terra Formars was the only disappointment of the weekend. Takashi Miike's live-action adaptation of the popular manga/anime series only sold 128,730 admissions over the weekend frame on 327 screens. Given everything the film had in its favor, despite a mixed reception, it should have managed an opening a lot better than this. As it stands, it'll be in for a struggle to reach the ¥1 billion milestone.

 

If Yahoo Japan (2.45 out of 5) and Filmark (2.5 out of 5) is anything to go by, this had more than just a mixed reception; that's like Fantastic 4-levels of bad.

[cannastop]

　*1　*33821　ズートピア (Zootopia)
　*2　*26864　名探偵コナン２０１６ 純黒の…(Detective Conan 2016)

This looks like the day that Zootopia takes 1st place.

 

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/

Edited May 3, 2016 by cannastop

[cannastop]

Anyways, I think that Wednesday might be Zootopia's biggest day yet. It's a holiday and it's ladies' discount day.

[cannastop]

　*1　*71964　ズートピア(Zootopia)

　*2　*56997　名探偵コナン２０１６ 純黒の…(Detective Conan 2016)

 

Holy shit, it's finally breaking out.

[Melvin Frohike]

1 hour ago, cannastop said:

　*1　*71964　ズートピア(Zootopia)

　*2　*56997　名探偵コナン２０１６ 純黒の…(Detective Conan 2016)

 

Holy shit, it's finally breaking out.

 

I hope so, but don't look now, Detective Conan is starting to catch up again.  What is it with Zootopia and evenings?   Is it starving for showings?  Based on their average ticket prices, it does not appear that one movie skews significantly younger than the other in terms of audience demographics, so it's probably not that.

[Foul01]

8 minutes ago, Melvin Frohike said:

 

I hope so, but don't look now, Detective Conan is starting to catch up again.  What is it with Zootopia and evenings?   Is it starving for showings?  Based on their average ticket prices, it does not appear that one movie skews significantly younger than the other in terms of audience demographics, so it's probably not that.

Maybe its because people who want to watch Conan don't want to watch it before the evening?

Its a detective suspense film, not exactly something you want to watch while its still sunny outside

[LMAbacus]

16 minutes ago, Melvin Frohike said:

 

I hope so, but don't look now, Detective Conan is starting to catch up again.  What is it with Zootopia and evenings?   Is it starving for showings?  Based on their average ticket prices, it does not appear that one movie skews significantly younger than the other in terms of audience demographics, so it's probably not that.

 

It's not even about evenings. The movie tends to slow down tremendously at around 2PM. By the way, how does average ticket price give us information about demographics?

[Arlo245]

Zootopia doing gangbusters. Could be $2.5-3 million for the day. Huge. Wednesday and Thursday will be big too. 

　

    AEON 3:29 PM JST 

    *1　102709　ズートピア

　*2　*89053　名探偵コナン２０１６ 純黒の…

　*3　*54982　クレヨンしんちゃん ２０１６…

　*4　*51523　シビル・ウォー キャプテン・…

[LMAbacus]

5 minutes ago, Arlo245 said:

Zootopia doing gangbusters. Could be $2.5-3 million for the day. Huge. Wednesday and Thursday will be big too. 

　

    AEON 3:29 PM JST 

    *1　102709　ズートピア

　*2　*89053　名探偵コナン２０１６ 純黒の…

　*3　*54982　クレヨンしんちゃん ２０１６…

　*4　*51523　シビル・ウォー キャプテン・…

 

Guess it caught a second wind. It looks like its lead is big enough and late enough into the day that it should get its first 1st-place finish.

[Melvin Frohike]

23 minutes ago, LMAbacus said:

By the way, how does average ticket price give us information about demographics?

 

The connection would be vague at best, and subject to a number of other factors, but I was under the impression that generally a higher proportion of children would result in lower ticket prices.  A significant difference between these two movies in this respect, with Zootopia on the lower side for the sake of argument, might suggest a relative lack of adults going to see the movie without children as one reason for its sales dropping off starting in the afternoon.  However, these two movies have practically the same average ticket price, which would seem to suggest that there isn't a major difference in their audience demographics.  This proves nothing, but I have to grope for clues wherever I can find them.

[Melvin Frohike]

46 minutes ago, Foul01 said:

Maybe its because people who want to watch Conan don't want to watch it before the evening?

Its a detective suspense film, not exactly something you want to watch while its still sunny outside

 

That's an interesting theory.  I never would have thought of it myself because personally what's outside of the theater makes zero difference to me, but maybe not everyone is like that.