JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[lab276]

How will the outcome of the election affect the box office, if at all?

[Olive]

Sunday may increase.

[cremino]

Update from Corpse

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=68435&sid=02591ccfcfcb7cbcd0139204f0d07e84&start=75

Sunday morning business was strong for about every film. Afternoon showings also look pretty strong across the board.

One Piece keeps selling out most of it's showings, The Hobbit is doing a little better than yesterday (especially 2D showings, including a Wald 9 sell out), and many of the holdovers (Kamen Rider, 007, and Today) are hitting 50% capacity or better at various locations. One Piece spillover appears to be spreading itself out among a number of films.

There is currently an election going on (former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is expected to win) and turnout is expected to be high, so that's probably fueling the box office today.

Sunday continues to be a very busy day at the movies. The high turnout of today's election is definitely having a positive effect.

One Piece is still selling out at most locations. Any doubts of it reaching 1 million admissions for the weekend can be forgotten now. While it's not official yet, it's an incredible feat that may not happen for another 5 years (Harry Potter 5 was the last film to do it with an unknown amount of previews).

The Hobbit isn't doing too bad today, at least compared to yesterday. I'm thinking it could come close to 250 million yen ($3 million) for the weekend. Obviously that's a massive disappointment, but hey, it's better than 200 million yen.

Humanoid Monster is doing pretty well today when compared to yesterday, too. It'll be close between it and The Hobbit for the #2 spot this weekend. We could potentially see a split with The Hobbit ranking 2nd in gross, but behind Humanoid Monster in admissions.

Holdovers continue to do quite well, too, especially Today, I Started Loving You. It was down approx. 15% yesterday compared to last Saturday, it's opening day, and based on how well it's doing today (spotting a few sell outs), I think it can manage a sub-10% second weekend drop which puts it in contention for the #2 spot this weekend as well.

[Fake]

So around 300-320m for 3-day..... ($3.7-4m).

[cremino]

Weekend estimates from Corpse

1 (-) One Piece Film Z (Toei) ¥1.3-1.5 billion ($16-18 million) NEW!

2 (-) Humanoid Monster, Bem (Toho) ¥221 million ($2.7 million) NEW!

3 (-) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros.) ¥217 million ($2.6 million) NEW!

4 (3) Today, I Started Loving You (Toho) ¥193 million ($2.3 million), -14%, Week 2

5 (1) Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Fourze & Wizard (Toei) ¥170 million ($2.1 million), -40%, Week 2

6 (2) 007: Skyfall (Sony) ¥161 million ($2.0 million), -40%, Week 3

7 (4) Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (T-Joy) ¥131 million ($1.6 million), -30%, Week 5

8 (-) Frankenweenie (Disney) ¥122 million ($1.5 million) NEW!

9 (5) Inazuma Eleven Go Vs. Danball Senkei W: The Movie (Toho) ¥69 million ($830,000), -28%, Week 3

10 (6) Holy Scripture of Evil (Toho) ¥51 million ($620,000), -46%, Week 7

Like Evangelion 3.0 last month, One Piece Film Z's estimates differ a bit since the figures are so huge. So I'm keeping the estimate in a range for now. One comparison has it as high as ¥1.6 billion nearly ($20 million), but that would have required an increase on Sunday and/or Saturday to be underestimated. I guess it's possible, but it's definitely the maximum. If by some miracle it hit $20 million, it'll be the biggest Opening Weekend All-Time in USD topping Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith. I'll update as soon as any numbers are released.

Humanoid Monster and The Hobbit are very close to one another can could easily switch spots. It's tough to gauge the children audience for Humanoid Monster and to predict the 3D share for The Hobbit.

Regardless of which ranking the two films get, slow start for Humanoid Monster coming in below expecations. And The Hobbit is playing on a massive 876 screen count meaning it's weekend psa could be below $3,000. It opened on Friday but even it's 3-day total is probably below ¥300 million (sub $4 million).

Both Humanoid Monster and The Hobbit will be targeting ¥2 billion ($25 million).

Decent opening for Frankenweenie. ¥1 billion ($12 million) is doable this time of year with a ¥100 million opening. Corpse Bride managed ¥1 billion in 2005 for comparison.

Holdovers:

Very strong for Today, I Started Loving You. It's bound to be one of the leggiest films this New Year.

Pretty good drop for Kamen Rider. These films rarely avoid a 50% second weekend drop, so this 40% estimate is impressive.

007: Skyfall hasn't been displaying great legs, but they're solid enough and in an unexpected twist, it's very likely to beat The Hobbit. It could be Hollywood's top film this New Year, though Les Miserables is expected to be a hit with tickets already on sale for Dec. 21st.

[Olive]

So around $4 mil 3-day.

[Olive]

TH1 wiill struggle to reach 2 billion yen.RTOK total was 10.3 billion yen.

[iceroll]

Speaking of One Piece and Japan, Avril Lavigne is really popular in Japan for some reason. She did a cover of Nickelback's "How You Remind Me" for the movie's soundtrack and it's really successful there!http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=rO11O19y98UI like this version, it's better than the original IMO

[Olive]

OnePiece:Z OW - -> 1372M yen, 2nd biggest all-time

Top 10 (Animated Films) Opening Weekends All-Time (2-Day)

[JPY]

1. Howl's Moving Castle (Toho) ¥1.483 billion [449 scr] 2005

* One Piece Film Z (Toei) ¥1.372 billion [301 scr] 2013

2. Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (T-Joy) ¥1.133 billion [224 scr] 2012

3. One Piece Film Strong World (TOEI) ¥1.038 billion [190 scr] 2010

4. Ponyo (Toho) ¥1.034 billion [481 scr] 2008

5. Spirited Away (Toho) ¥1.009 billion [318 scr] 2001

6. Toy Story 3 (Disney) ¥977 million [530 scr] 2010

7. Tales From Earthsea (Toho) ¥907 million [435 scr] 2006

8. Finding Nemo (Disney) ¥898 million [654 scr] 2004

9. The Borrower Arrietty (Toho) ¥895 million [447 scr] 2010

[Olive]

The Hobbit ranks at #5 in weekend admission chart.

3-day gross was 292M yen, 199k adm.

2-day weekend 220.5m yen, 146k adm.

Edited December 17, 2012 by Olive

[Robertron]

TH1 wiill struggle to reach 2 billion yen.RTOK total was 10.3 billion yen.

Wow.Just wow.

[cremino]

The Hobbit ranks at #5 in weekend admission chart.

3-day gross was 292M yen, 199k adm.

2-day weekend 220.5m yen, 146k adm.

This means a sub $ 4m 3-day gross and a 70/80% drop (maybe worse) in admission from ROTK ............. Edited December 17, 2012 by eva

[Olive]

more like 80%+ drop

[DeeCee]

Speaking of One Piece and Japan, Avril Lavigne is really popular in Japan for some reason. She did a cover of Nickelback's "How You Remind Me" for the movie's soundtrack and it's really successful there!http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=rO11O19y98UI like this version, it's better than the original IMO

That's not weird at all. His current fiancé singing a song he wrote about a girl he used to know.

[Olive]

12/22-23

Weekend Forecast

1 (1) One Piece Film Z (Toei) ¥550 million ($6.7 million) Week 2

2 (-) Les Miserables (Toho-Towa) ¥400 million ($4.9 million) NEW!

3 (-) Ooku: The Inner Chambers 2 (Asmik Ace/Shochiku) ¥275 million ($3.3 million) NEW!

4 (2) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros.) ¥150 million ($1.9 million) Week 2

5 (4) Today, I Started Loving You (Toho) ¥145 million ($1.8 million) Week 3

6 (3) Humanoid Monster, Bem (Toho) ¥140 million ($1.7 million) Week 2

7 (6) 007: Skyfall (Sony) ¥115 million ($1.4 million) Week 4

8 (5) Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Fourze & Wizard (Toei) ¥110 million ($1.3 million) Week 3

9 (7) Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (T-Joy) ¥90 million ($1.2 million) Week 6

10 (8) Frankenweenie (Disney) ¥75 million ($1 million) Week 2

One Piece Film Z's predecessor dropped 58% in it's second weekend three years ago and Evangelion 3.0 dropped 51% it's second weekend last month. A comparable drops is likely, though it's probably going to be closer to 60% than 50% given the how massive it's opening weekend was. After 9 days, the total will have exceeded ¥2.5 billion (over $30 million).

Les Miserables is doing well at many locations I track and while it may not match The Phantom of the Opera, it definitely seems on track to perform better than any other recent musicals and Japan will easily be one of it's best markets. Musicals in the market generally do good business, and with this one being one of the most popular in Japan (the country has performed the musical many times) and the strong cast (good reviews), it'll play very, very well this New Year.

Ooku: The Inner Chambers 2 doesn't have alot of expecations, but should do close to it's predecessors figures.

I also want to point out that the Emperor's Birthday is on Sunday. It's a National Holiday, but it hasn't really boosted the box office in the past when falling on the weekend except for a few cases with some single digit drops for certain films. I don't think it'll make any difference this weekend, though.

[John Marston]

Hobbit's performance

[cremino]

Hobbit's performance

Indeed

12/22

Saturday Estimates

1. One Piece Film Z (Toei) ¥343 million ($4.1 million) Day 8

2. Les Miserables (Toho-Towa) ¥160 million ($2 million) NEW!

3. Today, I Started Loving You (Toho) ¥68 million ($820,000) Day 15

4. Humanoid Monster, Bem (Toho) ¥63 million ($760,000) Day 8

5. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros.) ¥61 million ($730,000) Day 9

6. 007: Skyfall (Sony) ¥58 million ($700,000) Day 22

7. Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Fourze & Wizard (Toei) ¥54 million ($650,000) Day 15

8. Ooku: The Inner Chambers 2 (Asmik Ace/Shochiku) ¥50 million ($600,000) NEW!

9. Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (T-Joy) ¥37 million ($440,000) Day 36

10. Frankenweenie (Disney) ¥33 million ($400,000) Day 8

Very good for One Piece Film Z. It's down 52% from it's opening day, steep for the market, but better than it's predecessor and remarkable considering it was the biggest opening day ever for a local film and overall in nearly 6 years. It looks like a second weekend over ¥600 million ($7 million) may happen.

Les Miserables is off to a great start, selling about 55% more tickets than The Hobbit did on it's first Saturday. It opened on Friday, so this is it's second day in release.

Ooku 2 however is not having a great debut, it's down over 60% compared to it's predecessor's opening day. Yikes. I knew there weren't really any expectations, but figured it would at least come somewhat close to it's predecessor ala Liar Game 2

[Olive]

So 45% drop in Japan.

[Elessar]

I think you're comparing 3 days to 2 days. Box office weekends in Japan have 2 days.

Edited December 22, 2012 by Elessar

[Olive]

I think you're comparing 3 days to 2 days. Box office weekends in Japan have 2 days.

this weekend 120 mil yen, last weekend 220M yen(3days 292M yen)