JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Corpse]

It's having spectacular legs and should reach perhaps 3.5 billion yen ($41/42 million). I'm not predicting it yet, but 4 billion yen (nearly $50 million) might be possible, too.

[iceroll]

That's amazing, it would be almost double what Mamma Mia did there.

[cremino]

01/12

Saturday Estimates

Rank / Title / Sat. Estimate / % Change-from-last-Sat. / Week in Release

1 Hunter X Hunter: The Phantom Rouge (Toho) ¥269 million ($3.1 million), 0, NEW!

2 Les Miserables (Toho-Towa) ¥102 million ($1.3 million), -29%, Week 4

3 One Piece Film Z (Toei) ¥87 million ($1.1 million), -46%, Week 5

4 Taken 2 (20th Century Fox) ¥62 million ($725,000), 0, NEW!

5 Looper (Gaga) ¥59 million ($700,000), 0, NEW!

6 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros.) ¥23 million ($275,000), -54%, Week 5

7 007: Skyfall (Sony) ¥20 million ($250,000), -58%, Week 7

8 Today, I Started Loving You (Toho) ¥20 million ($250,000), -46%, Week 6

9 Blue Exorcist: The Movie (Toho) ¥17 million ($200,000), -33%, Week 3

10 Humanoid Monster, Bem (Toho) ¥13 million ($150,000), -66%, Week 5

Very, very good for Hunter X Hunter. A debut between ¥400-450 million ($5-5.5 million) could allow it to reach ¥2 billion ($25 million).

As expected, Les Miserables is estimated to have the best hold. And after seeing the large delice for 007: Skyfall post-New Year, it's likely to overtake it this weekend and become Hollywood's top film for the year so far. I'm starting to wonder if ¥4 billion (nearly $50 million) is in play here.

One Piece Film Z managing over 50% of it's audience from last Saturday is pretty good. It doesn't appear to be plummeting after New Year like it's predecessor did 3 years ago.

Taken 2 looks headed for expected results.

I must say I'm impressed by Looper. Estimates for films that are released in far fewer theaters than it's comparison title (Les Mis in this case) can be inaccurate, but it's probably not that far off. It might just crack ¥100 million ($1.2 million) for the weekend.

Most of the holdovers suffered steep drop, especially the family/kid films. Skyfall dropping so much is surprising, though. Perhaps being in it's seventh week it lost a number of showtimes and/or screens this weekend.

And that is quite the random solid hold for Blue Exorcist.

[cremino]

01/12-13

Weekend Estimates

Rank / Title / Wknd. Estimate / % Change / Week in Release

1 (-) Hunter X Hunter: The Phantom Rouge (Toho) ¥427 million ($4.97 million), 0, NEW!

2 (2) Les Miserables (Toho-Towa) ¥272 million (3.17 million), -5%, Week 4

3 (1) One Piece Film Z (Toei) ¥255 million ($2.97 million), -21%, Week 5

4 (-) Taken 2 (20th Century Fox) ¥151 million ($1.77 million), 0, NEW!

5 (-) Looper (Gaga) ¥136 million ($1.59 million), 0, NEW!

6 (3) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros.) ¥60 million ($699,000), -39%, Week 5

7 (4) 007: Skyfall (Sony) ¥55 million ($646,000), -40%, Week 7

8 (6) Today, I Started Loving You (Toho) ¥48 million ($564,000), -33%, Week 6

9 (9) Blue Exorcist: The Movie (Toho) ¥41 million ($482,000), -17%, Week 3

10 (5) Humanoid Monster, Bem (Toho) ¥34 million ($393,000), -54%, Week 5

What a strong Sunday! Everything recovered very nicely after Saturday's steep drops.

Excellent debut for the first Hunter X Hunter film. The opening is only behind the holy trinity of Pokemon, Doraemon, and Detective Conan when comparing annual TV anime films, and best franchises like Bleach or Naruto quite easily. ¥2 billion ($25 million) is the goal here.

Ridiculous for Les Miserables! The film is having some of the best legs, especially for a Hollywood film, in quite some time. If the estimate is accurate, here is how it's past four weekend look:

Les Miserables:

1st Weekend - ¥295 million ($3.6 million)

2nd Weekend - ¥257 million ($2.9 million) -13%

3rd Weekend - ¥287 million ($3.3 million) +11%

4th Weekend - ¥272 million ($3.2 million) -5% Est.

It's total is definitely over ¥2.5 billion ($30 million) now and I believe ¥4 billion ($50 million) has become very likely for the final total. It may just beat The Phantom of the Opera (¥4.2 billion) and become the highest grossing musical ever, too.

One Piece Film Z also had quite the remarkable hold when it really shouldn't have. If it maintains this pace, it could actually reach ¥7 billion ($84 million). The fanbase has become so huge. Not that I'm complaining, it's my favorite manga/anime, too.

Good start for Taken 2, and an even better beginning for Looper earning pretty close to the same despite playing in 30% fewer theaters.

And that's a crazy hold for Blue Exorcist. I don't know how it managed to pull that off being a fanbase driven film and it being post-New Year.

[iceroll]

Awesome for Les Mis!

[cremino]

01/12-13

Weekend Ranking

[Admissions]

1 (-) Hunter X Hunter: The Phantom Rouge (Toho) NEW!

2 (2) Les Miserables (Toho-Towa) Week 4

3 (1) One Piece Film Z (Toei) Week 5

4 (-) Taken 2 (20th Century Fox) NEW!

5 (-) Looper (Gaga) NEW!

6 (3) 007: Skyfall (Sony) Week 7

7 (5) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros.) Week 5

8 (4) Humanoid Monster, Bem (Toho) Week 5

9 (6) Today, I Started Loving You (Toho) Week 6

10 (9) Blue Exorcist: The Movie (Toho) Week 3

[Revenue]

1 (-) Hunter X Hunter: The Phantom Rouge (Toho) NEW!

2 (2) Les Miserables (Toho-Towa) Week 4

3 (1) One Piece Film Z (Toei) Week 5

4 (-) Looper (Gaga) NEW!

5 (-) Taken 2 (20th Century Fox) NEW!

Hunter X Hunter: The Phantom Rouge debuted on 257 screens to deliver the second biggest opening weekend of the year (edging out Skyfall) so far behind only One Piece. Over the weekend frame, it brought in 357,976 admissions for a gross of ¥456,779,000 ($5.4 million).

Taken 2 did so-so with 94,112 admissions and ¥114,686,300 ($1.3 million) for the weekend frame on 288 screens. The film's avg. ticket price is below the average indicating a large number of seniors made up the audience.

Looper however overperformed slightly on 201 screens to debut with 92,646 admissions to earn ¥119,950,800 ($1.4 million) over the weekend.

Still waiting for full holdover figures, but it's reported that One Piece Film Z has exceeded ¥6 billion ($70 million) after just five weeks in release. This may have been accomplished on Monday, though.

[cremino]

Thanks to Corpse

Top Distributors 2012

1. Toho - ¥74,135,772,802 ($882 million), +25.4%, [49.2% Market Share]

2. Toei - ¥17,538,893,910 ($209 million), +4.8%, [11.7% Market Share]

3. Warner Bros. - ¥15,407,440,130 ($183 million), -14.4%, [10.2% Market Share]

4. Sony - ¥12,514,747,700 ($149 million), +93.0%, [8.3% Market Share]

5. Walt Disney - ¥8,642,778,800 ($103 million), -55.6%, [5.7% Market Share]

6. Paramount - ¥7,967,770,660 ($95 million), -37.9%, [5.3% Market Share]

7. Shochiku - ¥7,422,974,000 ($88 million), -33.9%, [4.9% Market Share]

8. 20th Century Fox - ¥6,836,019,990 ($81 million), -44.2%, [4.5% Market Share]

These distributors represent about 75-80% of the overall Box Office. Toho-Towa and Gaga are likely next to round off the Top 10 distributors, but their yearly results aren't available.

Toho completely dominated the market this year, more so than they have percentage-wise since 2005. If you just look at some of the decreases in the other studios this year, one might think the year saw a sharp drop from last year, but 2012 is in fact above 2011 all thanks to Toho. And while that 49.2% market share will decrease once the other studios are included, I don't think they'll fall below 40% giving them a new record in market share.

Sony saw the best gains by a Hollywood Studio, up a very impressive 93% (Spider-Man and Resident Evil combo), but them alone couldn't offset the big losses by all the other Hollywood Studios this past year. Disney and Fox in particular had their worst years ever since at least 2005 (and probably longer).

[cremino]

1 (-) Ted (Toho-Towa) ¥290 million ($3.4 million) NEW!

2 (-) Tokyo Family (Shochiku) ¥260 million ($3.0 million) NEW!

3 (2) Les Miserables (Toho-Towa) ¥215 million ($2.5 million) Week 5

4 (1) Hunter X Hunter: The Phantom Rouge (Toho) ¥210 million ($2.4 million) Week 2

5 (-) Tokumei Sentai Go-Busters vs. Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger: The Movie (Toei) ¥175 million ($2.0 million) NEW!

6 (3) One Piece Film Z (Toei) ¥160 million ($1.9 million) Week 6

7 (4) Looper (Gaga) ¥80 million ($925,000) Week 2

8 (5) Taken 2 (20th Century Fox) ¥70 million ($800,000) Week 2

9 (6) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros.) ¥45 million ($525,000) Week 6

10 (7) 007: Skyfall (Sony) ¥40 million ($450,000) Week 8

It feels so strange to be projecting an imported R-Comedy playing at just 131 locations to debut on top this weekend, but Ted is doing remarkable business at many of those locations with various sell outs on some of the biggest screens (Roppongi Hills for instance) that a Top 3 debut is assured. If it opens at #1, it'll be the first imported film to do so since Skyfall back on 12/01-02.

Tokyo Family is expected to be distributor Shochiku's biggest film of the year and from what I can tell, the film is doing pretty well so far this morning and should deliver a solid opening and great legs will surely follow

Projected Totals (¥1 billion+) After Sunday (1/20)

One Piece Film Z - ¥6.3/6.4 billion ($72/73 million) after six weeks.

Les Miserables - ¥3.4/3.5 billion ($39/40 million) after five weeks.

007: Skyfall - ¥2.7 billion ($31 million) after eight weeks.

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - ¥1.6 billion ($19 million) after six weeks.

Hunter X Hunter: The Phantom Rouge - ¥900 million/¥1 billion ($11/12 million) after two weeks.

Outside the Top 10:

Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo - ¥5.1 billion ($62 million) after ten weeks.

Today, I Started Loving You - ¥1.7 billion ($20 million) after seven weeks.

Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Fouzr & Wizard - ¥1.3 billion ($15 million) after seven weeks.

Humanoid Monster, Bem - ¥1.1 billion ($13 million) after six weeks.

[riczhang]

Biggest drop yet for Les Mis about 20% hope it goes up with actuals. Last week went from -5% to -0.3%.

[Fullbuster]

1 (-) Ted (Toho-Towa) ¥290 million ($3.4 million) NEW!

2 (-) Tokyo Family (Shochiku) ¥260 million ($3.0 million) NEW!

3 (2) Les Miserables (Toho-Towa) ¥215 million ($2.5 million) Week 5

4 (1) Hunter X Hunter: The Phantom Rouge (Toho) ¥210 million ($2.4 million) Week 2

5 (-) Tokumei Sentai Go-Busters vs. Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger: The Movie (Toei) ¥175 million ($2.0 million) NEW!

6 (3) One Piece Film Z (Toei) ¥160 million ($1.9 million) Week 6

7 (4) Looper (Gaga) ¥80 million ($925,000) Week 2

8 (5) Taken 2 (20th Century Fox) ¥70 million ($800,000) Week 2

9 (6) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros.) ¥45 million ($525,000) Week 6

10 (7) 007: Skyfall (Sony) ¥40 million ($450,000) Week 8

It feels so strange to be projecting an imported R-Comedy playing at just 131 locations to debut on top this weekend, but Ted is doing remarkable business at many of those locations with various sell outs on some of the biggest screens (Roppongi Hills for instance) that a Top 3 debut is assured. If it opens at #1, it'll be the first imported film to do so since Skyfall back on 12/01-02.

Tokyo Family is expected to be distributor Shochiku's biggest film of the year and from what I can tell, the film is doing pretty well so far this morning and should deliver a solid opening and great legs will surely follow

Projected Totals (¥1 billion+) After Sunday (1/20)

One Piece Film Z - ¥6.3/6.4 billion ($72/73 million) after six weeks.

Les Miserables - ¥3.4/3.5 billion ($39/40 million) after five weeks.

007: Skyfall - ¥2.7 billion ($31 million) after eight weeks.

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - ¥1.6 billion ($19 million) after six weeks.

Hunter X Hunter: The Phantom Rouge - ¥900 million/¥1 billion ($11/12 million) after two weeks.

Outside the Top 10:

Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo - ¥5.1 billion ($62 million) after ten weeks.

Today, I Started Loving You - ¥1.7 billion ($20 million) after seven weeks.

Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Fouzr & Wizard - ¥1.3 billion ($15 million) after seven weeks.

Humanoid Monster, Bem - ¥1.1 billion ($13 million) after six weeks.

Ted, great start in Japan? Wow, very unexpected, I'm very happy about that

[lab276]

Thanks to Corpse

Top Distributors 2012

1. Toho - ¥74,135,772,802 ($882 million), +25.4%, [49.2% Market Share]

2. Toei - ¥17,538,893,910 ($209 million), +4.8%, [11.7% Market Share]

3. Warner Bros. - ¥15,407,440,130 ($183 million), -14.4%, [10.2% Market Share]

4. Sony - ¥12,514,747,700 ($149 million), +93.0%, [8.3% Market Share]

5. Walt Disney - ¥8,642,778,800 ($103 million), -55.6%, [5.7% Market Share]

6. Paramount - ¥7,967,770,660 ($95 million), -37.9%, [5.3% Market Share]

7. Shochiku - ¥7,422,974,000 ($88 million), -33.9%, [4.9% Market Share]

8. 20th Century Fox - ¥6,836,019,990 ($81 million), -44.2%, [4.5% Market Share]

These distributors represent about 75-80% of the overall Box Office. Toho-Towa and Gaga are likely next to round off the Top 10 distributors, but their yearly results aren't available.

Toho completely dominated the market this year, more so than they have percentage-wise since 2005. If you just look at some of the decreases in the other studios this year, one might think the year saw a sharp drop from last year, but 2012 is in fact above 2011 all thanks to Toho. And while that 49.2% market share will decrease once the other studios are included, I don't think they'll fall below 40% giving them a new record in market share.

Sony saw the best gains by a Hollywood Studio, up a very impressive 93% (Spider-Man and Resident Evil combo), but them alone couldn't offset the big losses by all the other Hollywood Studios this past year. Disney and Fox in particular had their worst years ever since at least 2005 (and probably longer).

What I find absolutely crazy is that Spirited Away made ¥30b. By itself it would've been the second biggest studio of the year.

[cremino]

Saturday Estimates

Film / Sat. Est. / Sat. % Change / Week in Release

1 Ted (Toho-Towa) ¥177 million ($2.0 million), 0, NEW!

2 Les Miserables (Toho-Towa) ¥111 million ($1.3 million), -18%, Week 5

3 Tokyo Family (Shochiku) ¥102 million ($1.2 million), 0, NEW!

4 One Piece Film Z (Toei) ¥93 million ($1.1 million), -27%, Week 6

5 Tokumei Sentai Go-Busters vs. Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger: The Movie (Toei) ¥80 million ($925,000), 0, NEW!

6 Hunter X Hunter: The Phantom Rouge (Toho) ¥57 million ($650,000), -79%, Week 2

7 Looper (Gaga) ¥36 million ($400,000), -40%, Week 2

8 Taken 2 (20th Century Fox) ¥25 million ($300,000), -56%, Week 2

9 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros.) ¥20 million ($225,000), -33%, Week 6

10 Humanoid Monster, Bem (Toho) ¥13 million ($150,000), -33%, Week 6

Wtf @ Ted. Unless it turns out to be really frontloaded, it appears it'll cross ¥300 million ($3.5 million) for the weekend fairly easily. I'll have to do some research, but I believe this would be the best opening for an imported comedy (of any rating) since... Sex and the City in 2008? I wonder if Ted is being viewed as more of a fantasy.

Les Miserables is still very, very strong. This sub-20% drop may however be it's worst-to-date (LOL), ahead of the film's second weekend drop of 13%. If it ranks #2 again this weekend, it'll be the fifth-consecutive week setting it up to become the highest grossing fillm ever to not reach #1 during a weekend (it has been #1 every Wednesday for awhile now).

Not bad for Tokyo Family. The legs are what will matter for this release. The film will have zero frontloadedness and still has a small chance at debuting at #2 for the weekend.

Expected for Sentai Go-Busters vs. Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger. These films typically open to about half of what the Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider films do.

Hunter X Hunter nose-dives after it's big opening last week. It was expected to drop close to 60%, but 70% might be where it's headed.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

TED breaks out ....

[Fullbuster]

Ted : $4.3m, all-time record for an American R-comedy

[iceroll]

Is Family Guy really popular in Japan?

[Fullbuster]

Is Family Guy really popular in Japan?

I have a doubt about it, that would be surprising.

[Tower]

So Ted made more in its opening weekend than both Hangovers made in their entire runs combined.

[Fullbuster]

[cremino]

01/19-20

Weekend Estimates

Film / Wknd Est. / % Change / Week in Release

1 (-) Ted (Toho-Towa) ¥356.9 million ($4.10 million), 0, NEW!

2 (2) Les Miserables (Toho-Towa) ¥227.6 million ($2.61 million), -20%, Week 5

3 (-) Tokyo Family (Shochiku) ¥202.3 million ($2.32 million), 0, NEW!

4 (3) One Piece Film Z (Toei) ¥173.8 million ($1.99 million), -32%, Week 6

5 (-) Tokumei Sentai Go-Busters vs. Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger: The Movie (Toei) ¥161.9 million ($1.86 million), 0, NEW!

6 (1) Hunter X Hunter: The Phantom Rouge (Toho) ¥136.6 million ($1.57 million), -70%, Week 2

7 (4) Looper (Gaga) ¥73.4 million ($843,000), -39%, Week 2

8 (5) Taken 2 (20th Century Fox) ¥54.4 million ($625,000), -52%, Week 2

9 (6) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Warner Bros.) ¥40.6 million ($466,000), -40%, Week 6

10 (10) Humanoid Monster, Bem (Toho) ¥31.1 million ($358,000), -32%, Week 6

I don't know where to begin with Ted because the number is so ridiculous and bizarre. That's a 2-day PTA of about $30,400 , and not only is it by far the biggest opening for an imported-comedy in at least 10-15 years, this estimate beats the opening of all but 7 Hollywood films last year and Ted is playing on 1/4 or 1/5 of their screens. Even if it would gets poor WOM (which I don't expect), I'm thinking ¥2 billion ($25 million), an average multiplier, is the minimum it'll end up grossing.

Les Miserables continues to be a monster at the Box Office down just 20%. That's it worst drop-to-date, but this fifth weekend estimate is down a mere 23% compared to the films opening weekend. Very, very impressive, which I think perhaps only Thermae Romae, Confessions, and Avatar can compete with in more recent years.

Tokyo Family did alright, if not just below expectations. This is the type of film though that will be very leggy.

As mentioned in the Saturday Estimates, Sentai Go-Busters vs. Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger did expected numbers anout 50/60% of the Kamen Rider films and on par with previous Sentai Gokaiger films.

Hollywood had a terrible year at the box office in 2012. In fact, when Eiren releases the statistics for the year in about a week I fully expect 2012 to be Hollywood's worst year since the late 1990s.

2013 is already looking to be very different so far, however:

-Ted lands the biggest opening ever for an R-rated comedy and will probably become the highest grossing R-rated comedy of all-time, too.

-Les Miserables is locked to become the highest grossing musical of all-time, and perhaps the highest grossing film overall to never rank #1 on a weekend. Best case is it ends up grossing more than any Hollywood film from 2012 as well.

-Skyfall became the highest grossing Bond film of all-time.

I think it's important to note that these films are exclusive 2D releases, too. Nearly every 3D release bombed or disappointed last year (including The Hobbit for this year) while 2D releases performed quite well. Let's see if they can continue this impressive streak for the remainder of the year.

[Fullbuster]

Something weird about Ted : I don't find videos of Ted in Japanese, only in English with Japanese subtitles...Apparently the movie isn't dubbed in Japan, so this success is all the more impressive.And this video confirms it :

Edited January 20, 2013 by Hunter X Fullbuster