JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Danhjpn]

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

Japan is famous in legs and years of theatrical runs (Like In the Corner of the world : ~1500 days of screening)

 How is the WOM for the movie JJK in Japan so far?

[SchumacherFTW]

5 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Problem is with GA. Fans like me would watch as much as can. But, without GA contribution, there isn't any figure good in keeping the seats and screens. Whatever it may be I would be looking forward for some improvement in next film, that not only in OW but in legs too.

There's literally no proof of that yet though. Once the next one comes out then we can declare a pattern, less than a year until we can have an answer though 

[Issac Newton]

1 minute ago, Danhjpn said:

 How is the WOM for the movie JJK in Japan so far?

No drops, 4.2 in Filmarks, suggesting great legs through out the holidays. 4.4 in moviewalker, 4.1 in Eiga and 4.3 in Yahoo Movie Japan.

[Issac Newton]

2 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

There's literally no proof of that yet though. Once the next one comes out then we can declare a pattern, less than a year until we can have an answer though 

Agreed, Still hopes for great OW and legs. Missing a lot of great run since Belle in summer.

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

Atleast better than initial forecast of ¥1.5B OW (3-days). Since, it's a prequel, it will drag more legs if benefits are maintained, also a great start before watching the anime series. Charlie, I can not promise a big numbers but two more films are likely looking to break DS records (keeping aside Miyazaki and Shinkai works) : It's Black Clover & Chainsaw Man (2023-24). So, DS record isn't intended to stay longer but it's just likely be a case of another Endgame-Avatar story.

 

I don't get if this is supposed to be a joke or what. Black Clover is a mildy popular battle shonen, its manga sells in the order of 1/20th of DS. That movie will target 500M full run let alone breaking DS' records. Chainsaw man is atleast more popular but still nowhere near DS popularity...let alone that, its anime hasnt even aired and there is no movie announced, like, what? And even if it did get a big boost off its anime and had a movie announced, a simple read off the source material would tell you it will never have the family draw required to challenge DS.

 

I also don't think you understand how strong those records are, in a stable market like japan where there is no inflation the OW record is basically market limit and near impossible to break. Opening day could fall at some point but even that would be a rather low chance. Full run might theoretically fall but it's still an astronomically low chance.

 

Also and this is just my advice, but you should start setting more realistic targets instead of dream ones that will only leave you disappointed when they aren't met. JJK just experienced a back to back to back decline over its weekend frame, its 3-days total is fantastic but it should just focus on breaking the 10 billion bar and perhaps aim for 15.

Edited December 26, 2021 by JustLurking

[XXR vs XXR]

The only thing with a shot at breaking DS numbers in the next 5 years Avatar 2 if it catches the zeitgeist again but even that I would put at less than 1%. I will predict no Japanese production goes over ¥25B in Japan through 2026. 

[Issac Newton]

I already wrote that it's a very rough estimate when I calculate JJK Movie 0 WW. And I also wrote that I would agree with all +/- that everyone suggest because of it's declining legs. I personally do not tightly held any numbers because of uncertain future for which I wrote "Next Target/Goal: ¥5,000,000,000 in 10 days." Also, it does not mean that DS was a record that can be killed in a span of 5 years, already declining and ageing population can not bring numbers to non-family type film. Well, I too wrote that "I can not promise", because Chainsaw Man movie isn't confirmed at first place, Black Clover movie seem to be just my expectation, not a conclusion. 

 

Do not drop the stick. I am aware of what's happening here. Just take my comments lightly, it isn't intended to hurt anyone or I never meant it.

この減衰度合いは、これまでの映画では異次元ですわ。そもそも初週土日単日で平日初日を抜けない興行数値で驚いた（49.9→41.7→34.0）。ファンムービーにありがちな、初日動員抜けずスタイルの映画になるのか？当方の着地も大幅下方修正必至。

— matsu_kiyo_1967 (@matsukiyokun) December 26, 2021

Edited December 26, 2021 by Issac Newton

[SchumacherFTW]

15 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said:

The only thing with a shot at breaking DS numbers in the next 5 years Avatar 2 if it catches the zeitgeist again but even that I would put at less than 1%. I will predict no Japanese production goes over ¥25B in Japan through 2026. 

The first Avatar didn't even get halfway to Spirited Away, why would the second challenge Demon Slayer? 

[SchumacherFTW]

16 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

I already wrote that it's a very rough estimate when I calculate JJK Movie 0 WW. And I also wrote that I would agree with all +/- that everyone suggest because of it's declining legs. I personally do not tightly held any numbers because of uncertain future for which I wrote "Next Target/Goal: ¥5,000,000,000 in 10 days." Also, it does not mean that DS was a record that can be killed in a span of 5 years, already declining and ageing population can not bring numbers to non-family type film. Well, I too wrote that "I can not promise", because Chainsaw Man movie isn't confirmed at first place, Black Clover movie seem to be just my expectation, not a conclusion. 

Black Clover feels like it'll either stick around the One Piece/Dragonball area or have zero impact like a Fairy Tail

[JonahVex]

Black Clover movie would be lucky to do $15 mil, even the Dragonball super movie did only like 34 mil in japan and OP stamped was below $50 mil iirc
Chainsawman isn't the type of series to have 4 quadrant appeal to be able to challenge DS, only thing I could see doing it is MIyazaki or shinkai movies and even thats less than 5% chance

[XXR vs XXR]

9 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

The first Avatar didn't even get halfway to Spirited Away, why would the second challenge Demon Slayer? 

 

I'm pretty sure I explained that in my comment (I.e it catches the zeitgeist and there's only a 1% chance of that happening, meaning I obviously don't think it's happening.)

 

[MG10]

2 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

Atleast better than initial forecast of ¥1.5B OW (3-days). Since, it's a prequel, it will drag more legs if benefits are maintained, also a great start before watching the anime series. Charlie, I can not promise a big numbers but two more films are likely looking to break DS records (keeping aside Miyazaki and Shinkai works) : It's Black Clover & Chainsaw Man (2023-24). So, DS record isn't intended to stay longer but it's just likely be a case of another Endgame-Avatar story.

 

 

Honestly I expect at max $50M from Black Clover (and worldwide) 😅

Edited December 26, 2021 by MG10

[Issac Newton]

2 minutes ago, MG10 said:

 

Honestly I expect at max $50M from Black Clover 😅

Yeah, something like that. I do not know why I wrote it. One comment just degraded my entire work or just made me stupid. 

[JustLurking]

45 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

I already wrote that it's a very rough estimate when I calculate JJK Movie 0 WW. And I also wrote that I would agree with all +/- that everyone suggest because of it's declining legs. I personally do not tightly held any numbers because of uncertain future for which I wrote "Next Target/Goal: ¥5,000,000,000 in 10 days." Also, it does not mean that DS was a record that can be killed in a span of 5 years, already declining and ageing population can not bring numbers to non-family type film. Well, I too wrote that "I can not promise", because Chainsaw Man movie isn't confirmed at first place, Black Clover movie seem to be just my expectation, not a conclusion. 

 

Do not drop the stick. I am aware of what's happening here. Just take my comments lightly, it isn't intended to hurt anyone or I never meant it.

I'm not saying you're trying to hurt people or anything. It's not like I'm trying to hurt you either. But you should probably look deeper into statements before you go for them. But look, black clover doesn't just sell <1/20th of what DS sells, it also sells nowhere near even the likes of Fairy Tail. It doesn't even sell like Toriko.

 

I get that you "aren't promising anything", but you should know how ridiculous it sounds when you throw around these statements and mention the likes of Black Clover, which like, I'm not trying to put down or anything, but it'd be the equivalent of me trying to say "Yeah, I think House of Gucci will take down TFA".

 

I'm also more referring to the fact that you were talking about it potentially reaching 30b, which like, it could happen, but...nothing suggests that it has a shot at that right now. And if you talk like that, you'll just end up disappointed when unrealistic goals cant be met. You also mentioned DS' record not being one that is intended to stay longer, but it obliterated, not just beat, records that stood nearly 2 decades. The only thing that can take it down is an absurd zeitgeist movie and even that might not be enough because it'll be near-impossible to even get that distribution for as long as DS had it barring another natural disaster.

Edited December 26, 2021 by JustLurking

[Issac Newton]

14 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I'm also more referring to the fact that you were talking about it potentially reaching 30b, which like, it could happen, but...nothing suggests that it has a shot at that right now. And if you talk like that, you'll just end up disappointed when unrealistic goals cant be met. You also mentioned DS' record not being one that is intended to stay longer, but it obliterated, not just beat, records that stood nearly 2 decades. The only thing that can take it down is an absurd zeitgeist movie and even that might not be enough because it'll be near-impossible to even get that distribution for as long as DS had it barring another natural disaster.

I explain that if it's fractured legs get improved with WOM, theatrical benefits, good marketing and also less weekend drop then it can go up to ¥30B. Yeah, I told about jumps in some weekend after opening in 4DX, MX4D &Dolby Cinemas. You are reading my comments half-way because of that you are in confusion.

 

Ahead of this line "You also mentioned DS' record not being one that is intended to stay longer", I told that I can not make a promise......

 

I do not intent to continue quoting. However, if you check pages back, I wrote about analyst questioning if it can overtake EVA 3.0+1.01 or not. Also about fractured legs, I am already having much sleepless night about it. Still thinking about the drop in Today..

Edited December 26, 2021 by Issac Newton

[Issac Newton]

Jujutsu Kaisen Movie 0 OW Breakdown

 

2021/12/24 (OD /Fri): ¥1,072,252,950  /772,224 visitors

2021/12/25-26 (Sat-Sun): ¥1,618,875,200 /1,135,829 visitors

2021/12/25-27 (Fri-Sun): ¥2,694,128,150 /1,908,053 visitors

 

Day-Date Breakdown:

12/24 (Fri) : ¥1,072,252,950 /772,224 visitors

12/25 (Sat) : ¥892,008,700 /626,110 visitors

12/26 (Sun) : ¥729,866,500 /509,719 visitors

 

IMAX Gross : ¥229,730,240 ($2M) in 39 halls. (10%)

Midnight Previews : ¥26,233,050

Edited December 27, 2021 by Issac Newton

[Danhjpn]

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

Jujutsu Kaisen Movie 0 OW Breakdown

 

2021/12/24 (OD /Fri): ¥1,072,252,950  /772,224 visitors

2021/12/25-26 (Sat-Sun): ¥1,618,875,200 /1,135,829 visitors

2021/12/25-27 (Fri-Sun): ¥2,691,128,150 /1,908,053 visitors

nice jump

[Issac Newton]

7 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Jujutsu Kaisen Movie 0 OW Breakdown

 

2021/12/24 (OD /Fri): ¥1,072,252,950  /772,224 visitors

2021/12/25-26 (Sat-Sun): ¥1,618,875,200 /1,135,829 visitors

2021/12/25-27 (Fri-Sun): ¥2,691,128,150 /1,908,053 visitors

 

Day-Date Breakdown:

12/24 (Fri) : ¥1,072,252,950  /772,224 visitors

12/25 (Sat) : ¥892,008,700 /626,110 visitors

12/26 (Sun) : ¥729,866,500 /509,719 visitors

Expecting a drop of less than 50% in Second Weekend. Today it will pass ¥3.000B (as Expecting)

[Issac Newton]

9 minutes ago, Danhjpn said:

nice jump

Good to see that it came above my calculations 😊

[Issac Newton]

Jujutsu Kaisen Movie 0:

12/27 : ¥396,456,780 /¥3,087,584,930

 

Crossed ¥3.000B in 4-days, overtaking Evangelion 3.0+1.01 (7-days) &Detective Conan: The Scarlet Bullet (8-days). Will closely observe it's tracking and comparison with EVA &DC:TSB.

 

Note: It's a calculated value &might miss L.M.U.

 

 

Spoiler

OW Breakdown

12/24 (OD+M) : ¥1,072,252,950 /772,224 visitors

12/25-26 (2D)  : ¥1,618,875,200 /1,135,829 visitors

12/25-27 (3D)  : ¥2,694,128,150 /1,908,053 visitors

 

Day-Date Breakdown:

12/24 : ¥1,072,252,950 /772,224 visitors

12/25 : ¥892,008,700 /626,110 visitors

12/26 : ¥729,866,500 /509,719 visitors

 

IMAX Gross : ¥229,730,240 ($2M) in 39 Halls (10% of 3-days WKend)

Midnight Previews : ¥26,233,050

 

Edited December 27, 2021 by Issac Newton