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The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey OS Thread: OVER 1B WW!

By Totem, in International Box Office

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Fake Global Phenomenon

Fake

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Posted

1 billion OS is not impossible but far from locked, in fact unprobable. It needs more than just expanding markets to reach it. Both Fellowship and Two Towers were below 600mil; RotK's number was inflated by a weak dollar and still was only 750mil. And there's nothing in the reviews so far that makes me believe The Hobbit can expand its audience from LotR.

Yes.... and LOTR trilogy was helped immensely by repeat viewings, it never reached as many audience as HP for example. But going by the reviews, multiple repeat viewing will be a luxury TH1 won't have.
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IndustriousAngel Blockbuster

IndustriousAngel

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Yes.... and LOTR trilogy was helped immensely by repeat viewings, it never reached as many audience as HP for example. But going by the reviews, multiple repeat viewing will be a luxury TH1 won't have.

I also think repeat viewings will be lower, but not because of reviews but ticket prize (3D). If The Hobbit pleases the core audience and theaters catch the opportunity, we might see a healthy long 2D-run after the holidays.
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peludo Summer Tentpole

peludo

Posted
Posted

1 billion OS is not impossible but far from locked, in fact unprobable. It needs more than just expanding markets to reach it. Both Fellowship and Two Towers were below 600mil; RotK's number was inflated by a weak dollar and still was only 750mil. And there's nothing in the reviews so far that makes me believe The Hobbit can expand its audience from LotR.

Today dollar is weaker than in 2003 and it does not need to expand audience from LOTR. In fact with a 30-35% drop of admissions it still would make over ROTK ;). But I agree that 1 billion is far from locked. We'll see what happens with China. For the moment we have to count with 0$ from there.
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Fake Global Phenomenon

Fake

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Which big markets do you think DH2 will be higher than TH?

Every market except Russia and Spain. Germany, Italy, Scandinavia etc. will be similar while TH1 will be behind in UK, France etc.On the whole, gross from Europe will be similar to DH2 but will fall well behind in LA and Asia.
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John Marston Global Phenomenon

John Marston

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Yes.... and LOTR trilogy was helped immensely by repeat viewings, it never reached as many audience as HP for example. But going by the reviews, multiple repeat viewing will be a luxury TH1 won't have.

Ha ha ha. You're kidding. HP appeals far more to its core audience primarily than the LOTR serried does
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peludo Summer Tentpole

peludo

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22,021 nowincreasing rapidly!

1,000 in 4 hours? :blink:. If I remember well, you gave a 40 million prediction for SK some days ago. In the beginning I thought in something similar, but I must confess it was a desire more than a reality. I am starting to have very good feelings... :)
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