Nero Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 12 minutes ago, Surajjj said: Is it good? Yeah it's great 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nero Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 When will we get 1st update? I'm so excited damn 😍😍😍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, Nero said: When will we get 1st update? I'm so excited damn 😍😍😍 It already hit 1M admissions!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 I'm AWAKE! Let's get this party Startedddddd 6 hours ago, Fish&chips said: Oh you guys still use the CGV admissions model haha. I got to say though, there was something enjoyable about seeing everyone lose their collective marbles at midnight korean time when numbers were released and we didn’t know CGV did hourly updates. We used it for Captain Marvel in prep for Endgame. Really good start for Endgame, if it crossed 1m at 11:20 update, then perhaps CGV is not 50% of OD like it was for Marvel? Could be looking at 47% like the weekend. Here's the hourlies so far. Wednesday, 24 April Time Adm. Presales 431,000 09:20 443,000 10:20 452,000 11:20 463,000 12:20 475,000 13:20 489,000 14:20 505,000 15:20 16:20 17:20 18:20 19:20 20:20 21:20 22:20 23:20 Actual: And here's the linear prediction based on Captain Marvel: Predictions based on CM Presales 1,892,509 09:20 1,807,487 10:20 1,751,223 11:20 1,707,737 12:20 1,659,089 13:20 14:20 1,610,389 1,552,208 The linear one is surprisingly quite good. It's decreasing at a consistent rate of 50k per hour, which would result in a final OD of 1.1m. Obviously if it passed 1m at 11am, it won't be doing 1.1m total. My thoughts so far point to a 1.3-1.4m opening day. Also since it appears CGV is taking a lower % than CM, could probably add about 7% to what CM predicts per hour. Full sheets: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mpf92NunqhPZOQkYsA3479cMmcBW80Dn0cK8HjlN0v8/edit#gid=313761228 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlashMaster659 Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 What were IW admissions on OD? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said: What were IW admissions on OD? 980k, 3rd all time behind Along with the Gods 2 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fish&chips Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 21 minutes ago, feasby007 said: Really good start for Endgame, if it crossed 1m at 11:20 update, then perhaps CGV is not 50% of OD like it was for Marvel? Could be looking at 47% like the weekend. Here's the hourlies so far. Eh..hard to say. 1 million was reported at 11am but since it's a compilation of exhausted tickets and future presales of the day, it's difficult to say 1 million was crossed at that time. Saying that, CGV dailies seem to operating under the same routine, hence the small increases we're seeing (which I guess are walk ups). In the latter case I think you may be right and CGV represents slightly under 50% of total. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Fish&chips said: Eh..hard to say. 1 million was reported at 11am but since it's a compilation of exhausted tickets and future presales of the day, it's difficult to say 1 million was crossed at that time. Saying that, CGV dailies seem to operating under the same routine, hence the small increases we're seeing (which I guess are walk ups). In the latter case I think you may be right and CGV represents slightly under 50% of total. Yeah, CGV also includes all tickets sold for that day. What is interesting is CM had a 49.7% ratio on OD, which dropped to 46.6% on Saturday, but then everything else was back up between 47 and 51%. If OD for EG is really something like 47%, then need to remember to use that to estimate at 11:20 pm tonight Literally woke up in heaven this morning though, SK ratings through the roof, US ratings are phenomenal, China ratings are blowing up, China OD blowing up, literally everything is hitting perfectly with this movie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 34 minutes ago, feasby007 said: I'm AWAKE! Let's get this party Startedddddd We used it for Captain Marvel in prep for Endgame. Really good start for Endgame, if it crossed 1m at 11:20 update, then perhaps CGV is not 50% of OD like it was for Marvel? Could be looking at 47% like the weekend. Here's the hourlies so far. Wednesday, 24 April Time Adm. Presales 431,000 09:20 443,000 10:20 452,000 11:20 463,000 12:20 475,000 13:20 489,000 14:20 505,000 15:20 16:20 17:20 18:20 19:20 20:20 21:20 22:20 23:20 Actual: And here's the linear prediction based on Captain Marvel: Predictions based on CM Presales 1,892,509 09:20 1,807,487 10:20 1,751,223 11:20 1,707,737 12:20 1,659,089 13:20 14:20 1,610,389 1,552,208 The linear one is surprisingly quite good. It's decreasing at a consistent rate of 50k per hour, which would result in a final OD of 1.1m. Obviously if it passed 1m at 11am, it won't be doing 1.1m total. My thoughts so far point to a 1.3-1.4m opening day. Also since it appears CGV is taking a lower % than CM, could probably add about 7% to what CM predicts per hour. Full sheets: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mpf92NunqhPZOQkYsA3479cMmcBW80Dn0cK8HjlN0v8/edit#gid=313761228 CGV added 79k post 14:20 for CM after adding 45k till 14:20. For A:EG CGV has added 74k so far and following CM shall add 130k. Though being on safe side, I assume it will add 102k as midpoint of two. Which means a final 607k for A:EG. A CM ratio would mean 1.2-1.25mn full day but as a bigger release and bigger hype, that ratio shall be lower 1.35-1.4mn OD IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 Okay let's do this! EG has ove 1m already so it should add 300k to 400k more. 1.5m might be a hard reach at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said: CGV added 79k post 14:20 for CM after adding 45k till 14:20. For A:EG CGV has added 74k so far and following CM shall add 130k. Though being on safe side, I assume it will add 102k as midpoint of two. Which means a final 607k for A:EG. A CM ratio would mean 1.2-1.25mn full day but as a bigger release and bigger hype, that ratio shall be lower 1.35-1.4mn OD IMO. 1 minute ago, pepsa said: Okay let's do this! EG has ove 1m already so it should add 300k to 400k more. 1.5m might be a hard reach at this point. Looks like everything is pointing to the 1.3-1.4 range we expected based on Presales and CGV presales. Absolutely amazing and likely record breaking, just a shame it can't go batshit crazy for us like China or Indonesia. And @pepsa good morning!!! Let's get this part started now we're all here 🎉🎊 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, feasby007 said: Looks like everything is pointing to the 1.3-1.4 range we expected based on Presales and CGV presales. Absolutely amazing and likely record breaking, just a shame it can't go batshit crazy for us like China or Indonesia. And @pepsa good morning!!! Let's get this part started now we're all here 🎉🎊 We still have to wait maybe 6pm to 10pm are insane just like the ramp up yesterday And yeah my body is so ready!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 Also, only just noticed, but we hit 600 pages!!! 3:20pm update: 13:20 489,000 14:20 505,000 15:20 517,000 16:20 likely just hit 1.1m for OD full sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mpf92NunqhPZOQkYsA3479cMmcBW80Dn0cK8HjlN0v8/edit#gid=313761228 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 1 minute ago, feasby007 said: Also, only just noticed, but we hit 600 pages!!! 3:20pm update: 13:20 489,000 14:20 505,000 15:20 517,000 16:20 likely just hit 1.1m for OD full sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mpf92NunqhPZOQkYsA3479cMmcBW80Dn0cK8HjlN0v8/edit#gid=313761228 Okey now we need that extra 200k - 400k, let's see the chart pop off at 19-22pm I am so ready! Damm the hype is real even in Belgium (normaly very low on SH train) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 @feasby007 You metric is now predicting 1.3m Let's hope it keeps on creeping up like last hour! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, pepsa said: @feasby007 You metric is now predicting 1.3m Let's hope it keeps on creeping up like last hour! Yep. I updated the sheet to roughly guess (based on CM) what the rate would be like. Hopefully 1.3m happens. Not entirely sold on OD record at the moment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 Quite amazingly, presales (http://kobis.or.kr/kobis/business/stat/boxs/findRealTicketList.do) are currently at 2,151,234, meaning it has only dropped 170k from 2,321,735! Now we know that Opening Day accounted for around 900k presales (850k estimate earlier was too small based on when we hit 1m). And that 2.15m still accounts for presales for showings from 6:30pm onwards. Can it stay above 2m? If it does that would mean it's sold at least 600k tickets in presales for the other days today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pepsa Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, feasby007 said: Quite amazingly, presales (http://kobis.or.kr/kobis/business/stat/boxs/findRealTicketList.do) are currently at 2,151,234, meaning it has only dropped 170k from 2,321,735! Now we know that Opening Day accounted for around 900k presales (850k estimate earlier was too small based on when we hit 1m). And that 2.15m still accounts for presales for showings from 6:30pm onwards. Can it stay above 2m? If it does that would mean it's sold at least 600k tickets in presales for the other days today. I think it will or atleast be close enough that it will come back at the end of the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 (edited) Going slower than expected, likely too many presales. Probably won't hit 1.3m for Opening Day by what I can see at the moment. Wednesday, 24 April Time Adm. Presales 431,000 09:20 443,000 10:20 452,000 11:20 463,000 12:20 475,000 13:20 489,000 14:20 505,000 15:20 517,000 16:20 529,000 17:20 540,000 18:20 550,000 19:20 562,000 20:20 573,000 21:20 583,000 22:20 592,000 23:20 599,000 Actual: 1,274,468 Full Sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mpf92NunqhPZOQkYsA3479cMmcBW80Dn0cK8HjlN0v8/edit#gid=313761228 Edited April 24, 2019 by feasby007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 Almost all prime time(6-10pm) showtimes are sold out, so it won't add much from then onward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...